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July 23, 2008

Indonesia: Still quiet

It's 9:30 pm in Vancouver, and almost noon Thursday, July 24, in Indonesia. Here is the next-to-last Antara story I can find about avian flu: Bird Flu Cases Declining In Indonesia, But Prevalence Still Seen High Internationally.

You'll notice that the date is June 23, a month ago. Since then, Antara has published just two flu stories, on July 22 and July 24. Both have to do with international discussions, not with local H5N1 cases.

The other Indonesian media have been equally silent: Emmy Fitri's last Jakarta Post flu story appeared on June 20.

Bidang Komunikasi Komnas FBPI, a bilingual website, hasn't updated since June 18. An earlier site, Komnas FBPI, went silent after June 19.

I can't even find the last flu report on the English page of the Indonesian ministry of health.

WHO's avian influenza page hasn't been updated since June 19, except for a timeline dated July 14, which has no human cases more recent than two Indonesian women who died in May.

For a country that can barely hold itself together in the face of natural and man-made disaster, this is quite an achievement. Indonesia has shut down reports and discussion on a disease that has killed four out of five Indonesians who have contracted it.

The absolute numbers of avian flu cases, of course, are very small. But the whole point of H5N1 is its potential for catastrophically exponential spread, and that is why people worry about it in Egypt, run pandemic drills in Hawaii, and publish big reports in London and Washington.

You would think that every country with an embassy in Jakarta would be on the phone to its ambassador: "What are these people thinking? What's going on there?" That would be especially true of neighbours like Vietnam, Australia, the Philippines, and Malaysia.

Yet the media of other countries seem as quiet and serene as those of Indonesia itself. Maybe it's the excitement of the Olympics, or the US presidential race, or it's the vacation break for all the editors from Reykjavik to Christchurch. The H5N1 experts, from Dr. Nabarro on down, have said nothing.

Maybe, at the end of the month, Dr. Supari will condescend to formally advise the world of the death of Asnawi Sandri on July 10. Or maybe she won't.

Whether we like it or not, the Indonesian government's silencing of news about H5N1 is a remarkable stunt. If the rest of the world goes along with it for another month, we will have effectively lost track of events. If we lose track of events, we lose hope of smothering a pandemic in its cradle.

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