This winter's death rates could well be the worst since the turn of the century, as freezing temperatures and virulent flu take their toll on tens of thousands of Britain's frail and elderly.
Winter always sees an increase in death rates - on average, 25,000 more older people die between December and March. But experts are already warning that this tough winter could see at least a doubling of that figure.
Dr Alan Maryon-Davis, president of the UK Facility of Public Health, said there was a known correlation between the weather and mortality rates. For every 1C the temperature falls below the winter average, there are some 8,000 extra deaths in Britain - a higher proportion of the population than in Finland or Russia, where inhabitants are better prepared for harsh winters.
"If you look at the past 10 years or so, that is the ball-park figure, so we are worried at the way in which temperatures have been dropping over the past few weeks," he said.
"But with the flu that we have had circulating, plus the credit crunch and heating prices so high, it is a pretty lethal combination for frail, elderly people. This year is a real triple whammy."
Older people are also likely to be less mobile and therefore less likely to visit their GP if they have flu and so develop pneumonia or respiratory problems, or suffer heart attacks or strokes.
"There are several factors, and while the government has been very good about extra payments for winter fuel bills, many won't access the forms or even get to their GP," he said.
Maryon-Davis said it was time for people to turn back to an old-fashioned remedy - checking on elderly neighbours.
"It's what we used to call neighbourliness and that's what we need to do right now. Knock on the door of elderly neighbours - do they need a bit of shopping done or are there draughts in their house? Newspaper could help plug the howling gale coming through an old sash window. People really should get out there and help."
