I took the time this evening to visit the Documentation page on the MSPP website. Usually I check it just to see if any new numbers have been posted, but this time I decided to follow the growth in cholera cases and deaths from the start of 2012 to September 1.
The results are surprising. Clearly I've been focused too much on daily cases (and the occasional unexplained jump in the totals). As of January 1, Haiti had recorded 523,993 cases since the outbreak began some 14 months earlier. Deaths then totaled 7,018.
Here are the monthly increases in cases and deaths:
February 1: 4,031 cases since January 1; 8 deaths
March 1: 2,929 cases; 14 deaths
April 1: 1,593 cases; 53 deaths
May 1: 6,653 cases; 32 deaths
June 1: 13,432 cases; 110 deaths
July 1: 24,694 cases; 175 deaths
August 1: 6,480 cases; 82 deaths
September 1: 6,165 cases: 47 deaths
Total cases between January 1 and September 1: 65,977
Total deaths between January 1 and September 1: 521
In the 245 days between those dates, the average number of cases per day was 269. Average number of deaths was 2.1. At this rate, Haiti on December 31 will have recorded 98,454 new cholera cases—far fewer than the 200,000 WHO has predicted, but still a dismal number. A total of 778 Haitians will have died of cholera in 2012.
What strikes me more, however, is the enormous spike in cases beginning in April and rising through June. April saw a quadrupling of cases over March, and then a doubling of that number in May and a near-doubling again in June. The last two months have seen a fall, but only to 6,000+ cases per month.
I have no idea why the case count should have risen so much with hardly a peep out of MSPP, PAHO, or any of the NGOs still working in Haiti. June was especially disastrous, but I didn't see any kind of overview from the agencies or from the media. All we got was a more or less up-to-date tally of the current cases and deaths, with no comparisons between one month and the next.
What am I missing? Have I misinterpreted MSPP's numbers? Did I not see some WHO analysis of cholera trends? Some help from an expert would be very welcome.
