On his VDU's blog, Dr. Ian Mackay looks at H7N9: Zhejiang in 50 cases... Excerpt:
A quick look at the same number of cases (50) during the same period of time (2-months) in Zhejiang province, across 2-years. In 2014, between 23-Nov to 23-Jan, H7N9 case numbers surpassed 50 whereas in 2013 H7N9 cases did not reach 50 during the 1st wave.
Back on the 23-Jan it did not look like it would make it. Things move fast in influenza-town and prediction is a mug's game.
All a bit arbitrary, yet it is another indicator in addition to starting earlier and from more provinces than in March 2013, that H7N9 case numbers will be higher in 2014 than we saw last year and may well tear through the human case tally for that other "bird flu", H5N1.
Dr. Mackay also has an "H7N9 snapdate" with graphics showing the sex and age distribution of cases and the number of cases in hot-zone provinces.As he observes, the appearance of H7N9 in Guangxi has implications for Vietnam, just across the border with Vietnam—a border very porous to both legal and illegal poultry sellers, as Hanoi warned in an alert last week.