Thanks to Lucie Lecomte for pointing me to the blog of RMS (Risk Management Solutions): Assessing the Risk of a Global Ebola Pandemic. Conclusion to an interesting post:
The current outbreak is now the largest outbreak of Ebola to date, and the World Health Organization (WHO) has designated the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
However, while cases will continue to develop, a global pandemic is unlikely. Even if the disease were to spread to other regions of the world, Ebola is still considered a rare disease and the transmissibility is likely to be much lower due to quarantine and infection-control measures, even if the CFR remains high. We have not seen any community transmission outside of Africa, and this is expected to continue.
Ebola is a very serious disease, with devastating consequences to impacted communities. As risk managers, we aim to improve understanding of catastrophes such as pandemic disease so that as a society we can be better prepared to mitigate risk and recover from catastrophes.
Ebola will have global repercussions even if not a single case occurs outside the present four countries. Public health departments around the world are already nervously testing incoming passengers. Sex workers in India are being urged to turn down African clients—all African clients. The economies of all four Ebola countries are already in trouble.