Thanks to Shane Granger for tweeting the link to this post on the Health Intelligence blog: Forecasting the Number of Cases of Ebola Virus from the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa During the Next 12 Weeks. Click through for the full post and projections. Excerpt:
Based on the forecasting model and asuming the current conditions (diagnosis, treatment, interventions and reporting) of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa remains as in the past, it is expected a rapid and exponential increase in the number of cases and deaths.
It is estimated that the cumulative number of cases will reach more than 8,000 95% CI (6,466-9,954) for the three countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in the next 12 weeks.
Liberia is strongly contributing to the high number of cases of the whole outbreak in the last weeks. It is estimated that Liberia reaches more than 4,000 cases in the next 12 weeks, practically half of the total number of cases estimates for the whole outbreak (three countries together). Liberia and Sierra Leone have the highest average rate of cases per week.
Urgent actions and interventions should be taken in order to control the outbreak, avoid more cases and deaths.
I hope this helps to raise awareness of the current and near future situation of the 2014 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa.
Given WHO's tally today of 3,685 cases and 1,841 deaths, that indicates more than doubling the case count and death count. So the burden accumulated since December, over roughly eight months, will double in three months.