H5N1

Fukushima's long road to recovery

On the seventh anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, a BBC News report: Fukushima's long road to recovery. Excerpt:

It was supposed to be a day of celebration. But Rio Watanabe's graduation ceremony became memorable for all the wrong reasons. 

Mr Watanabe, who was just 23 years old at the time, was in Tokyo when the ground started to shake. Japan is used to earthquakes. It experiences more than 100,000 of them every year, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.  

But the tremors on 11 March 2011 were so violent that Mr Watanabe thought Tokyo was at its epicentre. 

When he realised that they originated 200 miles north of the capital, his thoughts quickly turned to his family in Fukushima, and the Sansuiso Inn run by his father. 

The hot spring's location in the mountains meant it escaped the devastation wrought by the magnitude seven earthquake and tsunami which followed.  

However, a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant sparked fears of contamination, and the spa resort quickly emptied.

Mr Watanabe still remembers how suddenly things changed. "We suffered heavily after the nuclear blast, and all of our bookings were cancelled."  

Seven years on and the hotel's operating profits have not recovered to levels seen before the disaster struck. 

Mr Watanabe says: "Some guests still talk about the nuclear disaster. There is still a negative image about Fukushima, and it's been painful for all of us in this community." 

The tsunami killed almost 16,000 people and forced the country to rethink its energy policy. 

Seven years on and the scars of the 2011 disaster remain. Abandoned houses are obscured by unruly branches and overgrown hedges. Even the vending machines are ignored. But there are also tales of resilience. 

Mr Watanabe had always planned to return to the Sansuiso Inn in Fukushima to help run the hotel with his father. 

He says: "My future was suddenly destroyed and cut off, and I felt so disappointed. It was such as shock."  

But the disaster also brought the community together. Mr Watanabe joined forces with other hot spring owners in the area to form Genki Up Tsuchiyu. "Re-energizing Tsuchiyu" is designed to promote activities in the area and bring the community together.

Tsunami warning ends for BC after large earthquake strikes off Alaska

Via CBC News British Columbia: Tsunami warning ends for B.C. after large earthquake strikes off Alaska. Excerpt:

A tsunami warning for coastal British Columbia and parts of Alaska has ended after a powerful earthquake struck about 250 kilometres southeast of Chiniak, Alaska, early today. 

The quake struck at 1:31 a.m. PT Tuesday and prompted a tsunami warning for the entire B.C. coast and a tsunami watch for the entire U.S. West Coast.

In Tofino, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, warning sirens were activated on the two main beaches in town, and people began evacuating to the emergency reception centres at the community hall and elementary school. 

"Everything has proceeded in a really orderly fashion," said Tofino Mayor Josie Osborn. "This is why we train, this is why we do exercises and this is why spend time making emergency plans and then testing them."  

The provincial emergency systems worked the way it was supposed to, said B.C.'s public safety minister. 

"Whether it was in Esquimault where we saw firefighters and first responders going door to door, or... Queen Charlotte City which was fully evacuated, or the sirens in Tofino and Ucluelet, and people going to their local emergency centres, people responded admirably and I think the emergency services did a remarkable job," said Mike Farnworth.

Tsunami warning on BC coast after large earthquake southeast of Alaska

Credit: CBC

Via CBC News British Columbia: Tsunami warning on B.C. coast after large earthquake southeast of Alaska. Excerpt:

A tsunami warning is in effect for coastal British Columbia and parts of Alaska after a powerful earthquake struck, about 250 kilometres southeast of Chiniak, Alaska. 

The quake struck at 1:31 a.m. PT Tuesday and prompted a tsunami warning for the entire B.C. coast and a tsunami watch for the entire U.S. west coast, the U.S. Tsunami Warning System said.  

The U.S. Geological Survey initially reported the quake's strength at 8.2 early Tuesday and later revised that to 7.9 with a depth of 25 kilometres. At least three aftershocks have been reported. 

Environment Canada says the tsunami warning covers the Central Coast and Northeast Vancouver Island coast, including Kitimat Bella Coola and Port Hardy. 

The weather agency says people in coastal areas are at risk and should move to high ground now and heed further instruction from local authorities.  

Emergency Info BC, directed by the province's lead agency for disaster management, says there is also a tsunami warning in effect for the Juan de Fuca Strait coast, the outer west coast of Vancouver Island and Haida Gwaii. The warning did not include Vancouver.  

The emergency agency for Tofino, B.C. on Vancouver Island tweeted a photo of people gathering in an evacuation centre. Tofino Emergency said the first wave was due to arrive at 3:40 a.m. PT. 

Tsunami sirens went off on two of the main beaches of the town, where most resorts are located and where many residents live, said Dan Banks, a public works employee in Tofino.

Mike Coston at Avian Flu Diary has a post on this event. All is well here in Vancouver, and we're not at risk of a tsunami. More to come.

Ash-spewing volcano in Papua New Guinea forces villagers to flee

Via Thomson Reuters: Ash-spewing volcano in Papua New Guinea forces villagers to flee. Excerpt:

A remote island volcano in Papua New Guinea has begun spewing ash into the air, forcing the evacuation of more than 500 residents, media and non-profit groups have said. 

Kadovar Island, a 365-metre (1,197-ft) -tall volcano on the north coast of PNG, was thought to be dormant until it began erupting on January 5. 

"It's just a continuous emission of volcanic ash at the moment," Cheyne O'Brien, a forecaster at the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, told Reuters by telephone on Sunday. 

The ash clouds have been thrown up steadily to a height of 2,133 meters (7,000 feet), forming a plume that is travelling west-northwest, he added. 

The plume does not yet pose a hazard to aviation, but a change in wind direction could hit operations at PNG's Wewak airport, O'Brien said. 

All residents of the island have been evacuated with no loss of life, U.S.-based charity Samaritan Aviation, which operates seaplanes to remote areas of PNG, said on Facebook.  

"We do not have any details yet as to where all of the families have gone and hope to have further information in the near future," the non-profit added.  

Reuters could not immediately reach authorities in Papua New Guinea by telephone for comment. 

The population of the island ranges from at least 500 to more than 600, media have estimated. 

The eruption may become explosive, bringing a risk of tsunamis and landslides, domestic online media Loop PNG quoted the Rabaul Volcanological Observatory as saying.

Indonesia: Tsunami warning after earthquake off southern Java

Via the Jakarta Globe: Tsunami Warning After Earthquake Off Southern Java.

Jakarta. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, or BMKG, issued a tsunami warning after an earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale struck off the coast of West Java on Friday night (15/12). 

The warning is for the southern coast of Central Java and West Java. 

The epicenter was at the Indian Ocean's floor, at a depth of 105 kilometers, 43 kilometers southwest of Tasikmalaya and 48 kilometers southwest of Sukabumi — both in West Java.  

The quake was followed by another with a magnitude of 6.9. Each lasted about a minute.  

According to the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) head Sutopo Nugroho, several houses collapsed in Tasikmalaya. The agency is now assessing the situation.  

BNPT Central Java head Sarwa told Kompas TV that seawater entered the streets in the districts of Kebumen and Cilacap in Central Java.  

Residents have been ordered to leave high-rise buildings until further notice.  

Strong tremors were recorded in Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Bandung and Depok (West Java), Karangkates, Ngawi, Madiun and Nganjuk (East Java), Badung (Bali) and Mataram (West Nusa Tenggara).

Six years after Fukushima, robots finally find reactors’ melted uranium fuel

Via The New York Times: Six Years After Fukushima, Robots Finally Find Reactors’ Melted Uranium Fuel. Click or tap through for the full report with photos and a video. Excerpt:

FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI NUCLEAR POWER PLANT, Japan — Four engineers hunched before a bank of monitors, one holding what looked like a game controller. They had spent a month training for what they were about to do: pilot a small robot into the contaminated heart of the ruined Fukushima nuclear plant.  

Earlier robots had failed, getting caught on debris or suffering circuit malfunctions from excess radiation. But the newer version, called the Mini-Manbo, or “little sunfish,” was made of radiation-hardened materials with a sensor to help it avoid dangerous hot spots in the plant’s flooded reactor buildings.  

The size of a shoe box, the Manbo used tiny propellers to hover and glide through water in a manner similar to an aerial drone. 

After three days of carefully navigating through a shattered reactor building, the Manbo finally reached the heavily damaged Unit 3 reactor. There, the robot beamed back video of a gaping hole at the bottom of the reactor and, on the floor beneath it, clumps of what looked like solidified lava: the first images ever taken of the plant’s melted uranium fuel.  

The discovery in July at Unit 3, and similar successes this year in locating the fuel of the plant’s other two ruined reactors, mark what Japanese officials hope will prove to be a turning point in the worst atomic disaster since Chernobyl. 

The fate of the fuel had been one of the most enduring mysteries of the catastrophe, which occurred on March 11, 2011, when an earthquake and 50-foot tsunami knocked out vital cooling systems here at the plant.  

Left to overheat, three of the six reactors melted down. Their uranium fuel rods liquefied like candle wax, dripping to the bottom of the reactor vessels in a molten mass hot enough to burn through the steel walls and even penetrate the concrete floors below. 

No one knew for sure exactly how far those molten fuel cores had traveled before desperate plant workers — later celebrated as the “Fukushima Fifty” — were able to cool them again by pumping water into the reactor buildings. With radiation levels so high, the fate of the fuel remained unknown.

Massive earthquake hits Mexico, killing several, sparking tsunami warning

If I were writing a disaster thriller about three simultaneous hurricanes, throwing in an 8.1 earthquake would strain my readers' credulity. Reality knows no such constraints. Via The Globe and Mail, an Associated Press report: Massive earthquake hits Mexico, killing several, sparking tsunami warning. Excerpt and then a comment:

A massive 8.1-magnitude earthquake hit off Mexico's southern coast, toppling houses in Chiapas state, causing at least five deaths and causing tsunami waves, officials said Friday. 

The quake was so strong that it caused buildings to sway violently in Mexico's capital more than 1,000 kilometres (650 miles) away. Residents fled buildings, many in their pyjamas, and gathered in frightened groups in the street. Some neighbourhoods remained in darkness after electricity was knocked out.  

"The house moved like chewing gum and the light and internet went out momentarily," said Rodrigo Soberanes, who lives near San Cristobal de las Casas in Chiapas, a poor, largely indigenous state popular with tourists.  

Chiapas Gov. Manuel Velasco said that three people were killed in San Cristobal, including two women who died in San Cristobal when a house and a wall collapsed. He called on people living near the coast to leave their houses as a protective measure. 

"There is damage to hospitals that have lost energy," he said. "Homes, schools and hospitals have been damaged." 

Tabasco Gov. Arturo Nunez said two children had died in his state. One of them was killed when a wall collapsed, and the other was a baby who died in a children's hospital that lost electricity, cutting off the infant's ventilator. 

The U.S. Geological Survey said the quake struck at 11:49 p.m. Thursday local time and its epicenter was 165 kilometres (102 miles) west of Tapachula in Chiapas not far from Guatemala. It had a depth of 69.7 kilometres (43.31 miles).  

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says waves of one meter (3.3 feet) above the tide level were measured off Salina Cruz, Mexico. Smaller tsunami waves were observed on the coast or measured by ocean gauges in several other places. The centre's forecast said Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala could see waves of a meter or less. No threat was posed to Hawaii and the western and South Pacific.  

Earlier, the U.S. Tsunami Warning System said hazardous tsunami waves were possible on the Pacific coasts of several Central American countries, including Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Panama and Honduras. 

Civil Defence in Chiapas said on its Twitter account that its personnel were in the streets aiding people and warned residents to prepare for aftershocks.

Credit: Mexico City Guide.com

Sixty years ago, on July 29, 1957, I lived through a big quake in Mexico City. The city suffered considerable damage as buildings collapsed, but the toppling of the golden Angel of Independence from its pillar on the Paseo de La Reforma was the damage most Mexicans took to heart.

Social capital and cognitive decline after the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami

Via The Lancet Planetary Health: Social capital and cognitive decline in the aftermath of a natural disaster: a natural experiment from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. The summary:

Background 

No previous studies have examined that social capital mitigates impacts of natural disaster experiences on cognitive function. We aimed to examine prospectively whether social capital mitigates the adverse effects of natural disaster on cognitive decline.  

Methods 

In this natural experiment, the baseline for our study was established 7 months before the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in a survey of older community-dwelling adults who lived 80 km west of the epicentre (59·0% response rate). About 2 and a half years after the disaster, which occurred on March 11, 2011, the follow-up survey collected information about personal experiences of disaster as well as incidence of cognitive disability. Our primary outcome was cognitive disability (measured on an 8-level scale) assessed by in-home assessment. 

Findings 

We obtained 5058 respondents at the baseline survey (59·0% response rate) and re-contacted 3594 survivors in the follow-up survey (82·1% follow-up rate). The experience of housing damage was associated with risk of cognitive impairment (coefficient 0·05 [95% CI 0·03 to 0·07]). Factor analysis of our analytical sample (n=3566) established two subscales of social capital: a cognitive dimension (perceptions of community social cohesion) and a structural dimension (informal socialising and social participation). Fixed effects regression indicated that improved informal socialising and social participation mitigated the risk of cognitive decline due to housing damage (coefficient −0·10 [95% CI −0·14 to −0·05]) and deteriorating informal socialising and social participation aggravated the effect of housing damage on cognitive decline (coefficient 0·04 [0·01 to 0·07]).  

Interpretation 

Improved informal socialising and social participation reduce the risk of cognitive decline due to housing damage in the aftermath of natural disasters. Interventions to promote civic participation should be tried to promote cognitive resilience of older survivors.

Fukushima residents exposed to far less radiation than thought

Via Science: Fukushima residents exposed to far less radiation than thought. Excerpt:

Citizen science usually isn’t this personal. In 2011, roughly 65,000 Japanese citizens living near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant started measuring their own radiation exposure in the wake of the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. That’s because no one, not even experts, knew how accurate the traditional method of estimating dosage—taking readings from aircraft hundreds of meters above the ground—really was. 

Now, in a first-of-its-kind study, scientists analyzing the thousands of citizen readings have come to a surprising conclusion: The airborne observations in this region of Japan overestimated the true radiation level by a factor of four. 

“The work [these] researchers are doing is extremely important … [because] it is logistically challenging to sample and monitor every potentially exposed person,” says Kathryn Higley, a certified health physicist at the School of Nuclear Science and Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis. 

It’s rare to monitor individual radiation exposure after a nuclear power plant accident. In some cases, regions are simply evacuated. In others, the cost and difficulty of handing out personal sensors—called dosimeters—is just too much. The few studies that have gathered individual readings in places like Chernobyl in Ukraine have also suffered limitations. Most target only small populations, and many are conducted far from the disaster site or long after the accident. Using aircraft is often easier, cheaper, and faster.

But in Date, Japan—just 60 kilometers from the six-reactor Fukushima Daiichi complex—local officials started a radiation-monitoring campaign within a few months of the accident. Mayor Shoji Nishida was one of the main supporters. He explained at a 2014 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency that his city was never ordered to evacuate, despite surveys revealing radiation levels similar to those in nearby towns that were evacuated. 

“We decided that we should not depend on the national government and that we had to take our own independent actions,” Nishida said at the meeting. He ordered Date to begin its own decontamination efforts and to monitor individual radiation exposure, allocating 1 billion yen of city funds to the project in May 2011.  

Under Nishida’s mandate, pregnant women and children younger than 16 were the first to receive a dosimeter, a candy bar–sized sensor that measures gamma rays. These high-energy electromagnetic waves, emitted by radioactive elements like cesium, can damage DNA and cause cancer. 

After roughly 9000 dosimeters had been distributed to children and expectant mothers, Date officials expanded the monitoring project: By 2012 almost all of Date’s roughly 65,000 inhabitants had been given one. Residents returned the dosimeters every 3 months for analysis; more than 52,000 residents participated in the survey for at least one year.

Chile: Tsunami alert for whole coastal region

Via El Llanquihue in Puerto Montt: Alerta de tsunami para todo el borde costero. [Tsunami alert for the whole coast.] The full report, with my translation:

Por orden de Onemi Los Lagos, se confirmó la alerta de tsunami para toda la región, pidiendo evacuar preventivamente todo el borde costero, debido al terremoto de 7,7 grados Richter ocurrido a las 11.22 al suroeste de Quellón. 

By order of ONEMI in Los Lagos, a tsunami alert has been confirmed for the whole region, calling for preventive evacuation of the whole coast owing to the 7.7 magnitude earthquake that occurred southeast of Quellón at 11:22.

"Basados en los parámetros preliminares del sismo y la evaluación de la amenaza de tsunami efectuada por el sistema de predicción de alarma de tsunamis (Sipat),se establece el estado de "Precaución" para la Región de Los Lagos", dice informe. 

"Based on preliminary parameters of the earthquake and the evaluation of the threat of tsunami carried out by the tsunami alarm prediction system (SIPAT), a state of "Precaution" has been declared for the Los Lagos Region," the statement says.

En este minuto, uno de los lugares más propensos de ser azotado por este fenómeno, Maullín, se encuentra en proceso de evacuación.

At the moment one of the places most likely to be hit by this phenomenon, Maullín, is in process of evacuation.