H5N1

Social capital and cognitive decline after the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami

Via The Lancet Planetary Health: Social capital and cognitive decline in the aftermath of a natural disaster: a natural experiment from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. The summary:

Background 

No previous studies have examined that social capital mitigates impacts of natural disaster experiences on cognitive function. We aimed to examine prospectively whether social capital mitigates the adverse effects of natural disaster on cognitive decline.  

Methods 

In this natural experiment, the baseline for our study was established 7 months before the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in a survey of older community-dwelling adults who lived 80 km west of the epicentre (59·0% response rate). About 2 and a half years after the disaster, which occurred on March 11, 2011, the follow-up survey collected information about personal experiences of disaster as well as incidence of cognitive disability. Our primary outcome was cognitive disability (measured on an 8-level scale) assessed by in-home assessment. 

Findings 

We obtained 5058 respondents at the baseline survey (59·0% response rate) and re-contacted 3594 survivors in the follow-up survey (82·1% follow-up rate). The experience of housing damage was associated with risk of cognitive impairment (coefficient 0·05 [95% CI 0·03 to 0·07]). Factor analysis of our analytical sample (n=3566) established two subscales of social capital: a cognitive dimension (perceptions of community social cohesion) and a structural dimension (informal socialising and social participation). Fixed effects regression indicated that improved informal socialising and social participation mitigated the risk of cognitive decline due to housing damage (coefficient −0·10 [95% CI −0·14 to −0·05]) and deteriorating informal socialising and social participation aggravated the effect of housing damage on cognitive decline (coefficient 0·04 [0·01 to 0·07]).  

Interpretation 

Improved informal socialising and social participation reduce the risk of cognitive decline due to housing damage in the aftermath of natural disasters. Interventions to promote civic participation should be tried to promote cognitive resilience of older survivors.

Fukushima residents exposed to far less radiation than thought

Via Science: Fukushima residents exposed to far less radiation than thought. Excerpt:

Citizen science usually isn’t this personal. In 2011, roughly 65,000 Japanese citizens living near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant started measuring their own radiation exposure in the wake of the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. That’s because no one, not even experts, knew how accurate the traditional method of estimating dosage—taking readings from aircraft hundreds of meters above the ground—really was. 

Now, in a first-of-its-kind study, scientists analyzing the thousands of citizen readings have come to a surprising conclusion: The airborne observations in this region of Japan overestimated the true radiation level by a factor of four. 

“The work [these] researchers are doing is extremely important … [because] it is logistically challenging to sample and monitor every potentially exposed person,” says Kathryn Higley, a certified health physicist at the School of Nuclear Science and Engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis. 

It’s rare to monitor individual radiation exposure after a nuclear power plant accident. In some cases, regions are simply evacuated. In others, the cost and difficulty of handing out personal sensors—called dosimeters—is just too much. The few studies that have gathered individual readings in places like Chernobyl in Ukraine have also suffered limitations. Most target only small populations, and many are conducted far from the disaster site or long after the accident. Using aircraft is often easier, cheaper, and faster.

But in Date, Japan—just 60 kilometers from the six-reactor Fukushima Daiichi complex—local officials started a radiation-monitoring campaign within a few months of the accident. Mayor Shoji Nishida was one of the main supporters. He explained at a 2014 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency that his city was never ordered to evacuate, despite surveys revealing radiation levels similar to those in nearby towns that were evacuated. 

“We decided that we should not depend on the national government and that we had to take our own independent actions,” Nishida said at the meeting. He ordered Date to begin its own decontamination efforts and to monitor individual radiation exposure, allocating 1 billion yen of city funds to the project in May 2011.  

Under Nishida’s mandate, pregnant women and children younger than 16 were the first to receive a dosimeter, a candy bar–sized sensor that measures gamma rays. These high-energy electromagnetic waves, emitted by radioactive elements like cesium, can damage DNA and cause cancer. 

After roughly 9000 dosimeters had been distributed to children and expectant mothers, Date officials expanded the monitoring project: By 2012 almost all of Date’s roughly 65,000 inhabitants had been given one. Residents returned the dosimeters every 3 months for analysis; more than 52,000 residents participated in the survey for at least one year.

Chile: Tsunami alert for whole coastal region

Via El Llanquihue in Puerto Montt: Alerta de tsunami para todo el borde costero. [Tsunami alert for the whole coast.] The full report, with my translation:

Por orden de Onemi Los Lagos, se confirmó la alerta de tsunami para toda la región, pidiendo evacuar preventivamente todo el borde costero, debido al terremoto de 7,7 grados Richter ocurrido a las 11.22 al suroeste de Quellón. 

By order of ONEMI in Los Lagos, a tsunami alert has been confirmed for the whole region, calling for preventive evacuation of the whole coast owing to the 7.7 magnitude earthquake that occurred southeast of Quellón at 11:22.

"Basados en los parámetros preliminares del sismo y la evaluación de la amenaza de tsunami efectuada por el sistema de predicción de alarma de tsunamis (Sipat),se establece el estado de "Precaución" para la Región de Los Lagos", dice informe. 

"Based on preliminary parameters of the earthquake and the evaluation of the threat of tsunami carried out by the tsunami alarm prediction system (SIPAT), a state of "Precaution" has been declared for the Los Lagos Region," the statement says.

En este minuto, uno de los lugares más propensos de ser azotado por este fenómeno, Maullín, se encuentra en proceso de evacuación.

At the moment one of the places most likely to be hit by this phenomenon, Maullín, is in process of evacuation.

Japan earthquake: Updates from The Guardian

The Guardian is liveblogging the Japan earthquake: 7.4 magnitude quake prompts tsunami warning – live updates. The latest:

Tsunami warnings for the Fukushima and Miyagi prefectures have been downgraded to alerts, a lower level of risk.

The USGS has downgraded the quake itself to 6.9—which is quite serious enough.

Powerful quake hits Japan, triggering tsunami warning

Via Channel NewsAsia: Powerful quake hits Japan, triggering tsunami warning. Excerpt:

An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3 hit northern Japan on Tuesday (Nov 22), the Japan Meteorological Agency said, generating a tsunami that hit the nation's northern Pacific coast.  

The US Geological Survey initially put Tuesday's quake at a magnitude of 7.3 but downgraded it to 6.9. 

The earthquake, which was felt in Tokyo, was centred off the coast of Fukushima prefecture at a depth of about 10km and struck at 5.59am (4.59am Singapore time), the agency said.  

A 60cm tsunami had been observed at Fukushima's Onahama Port and a 90cm tsunami at Soma soon after, public broadcaster NHK said. The region is the same that was devastated by a tsunami following a massive earthquake in 2011.

A tsunami warning of up to 3m has been issued.

An announcer on NHK urged residents along the coast to move to high ground. "Please flee immediately," the male voice said with urgency.

The vast majority of deaths in the 2011 disaster resulted from the tsunami, and NHK told viewers to heed the lessons of that day.  

One woman suffered cuts to her head from falling dishes, Kyodo news agency reported, citing fire department officials. 

Tokyo Electric Power Co, known as Tepco, said on its website that no damage from the quake has been confirmed at any of its power plants, although there have been blackouts in some areas. Tepco's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant caused Japan's worst nuclear disaster when it was knocked out by the 2011 tsunami.  

Tohoku Electric Power Co said there was no damage to its Onagawa nuclear plant, while the Kyodo news agency reported there was no irregularities at the Tokai Daini nuclear plant in Ibaraki Prefecture. 

Television footage showed ships moving out to sea from Fukushima harbours as tsunami warning signals wailed.

Japan: Tsunami warning issued after M7.3 temblor hits off Fukushima

Via The Japan Times: Tsunami warning issued after M7.3 temblor hits off Fukushima. The full report:

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.3 off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture rocked widespread areas early Tuesday, triggering tsunami warnings. 

Tsunami warnings were issued along the Pacific coast, including Aomore, Iwate, Ibaraki and Chiba prefectures. People have been warned to evacuate immediately to high ground in Fukushima Prefecture, where waves may reach 3 meters.  

The 5:59 a.m. temblor had an intensity of minus-5 on the Japanese seismic scale to 7.

Twitter, where I first saw reports, is covering it on #JapanQuake, among other hashtags.

USGS on the New Zealand earthquake

The USGS has published M7.8 - 53km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand. This is a page of maps and links. The summmary:

2016-11-13 11:02:56 UTC 42.757°S   173.077°E 23.0 km depth

USGS has also reported a "weak" tsunami from the earthquake.

New Zealanders in shock after quake

Via Radio New Zealand: New Zealanders in shock after quake. Excerpt:

A series of large earthquakes across New Zealand, which started just after midnight, have prompted coastal residents to flee their homes after tsunami alerts.  

Civil Defence is scrambling to assess damage from the first, 7.5 magnitude earthquake centred near Hanmer Springs, which shook much of the country and was followed by a series of strong aftershocks.  

Tsunami activity has been detected in Kaikoura and Wellington, while St John is responding to reports of injuries in North Canterbury, including sending rescue helicopters to the area.

What we know so far 

It was centred near Hanmer Springs, magnitude 7.5 (upgraded from a 6.6), 16km deep and struck at 12.02am. 

Several major shakes hit afterwards, most in the Canterbury and the upper South Island. 

Civil Defence says a destructive tsunami was possible. It warned people in southern coastal areas and the east coast of both the North and South islands to take precautions and move away from the coast. 

Tsunami sirens went off from Northland to Christchurch. 

Wave activity was detected in Wellington and the South Island, including a tsunami two metres or more in Kaikoura, a wave in the north-eastern coast of the South Island, Civil Defence tweeted. 

People self-evacuated from New Brighton, in Christchurch, and central Wellington. People were evacuated from Marlborough. People in Lyall Bay, in Wellington, moved to higher ground. 

Dunedin civil defence declared a local state of emergency and evacuated people from low-lying areas.  

Houses were reported to be damaged in Kaikoura and chimneys down in Culverden. St John said they had reports of injuries in those areas and were sending rescue helicopters. 

There were power cuts in North Canterbury, from Kaikoura to Cheviot. 

GNS duty seismologist Anna Kaiser said the quake was "definitely" felt across the country.

Japan’s ‘Hail Mary’ at Fukushima Daiichi: An underground ice wall

Via The New York Times: Japan’s ‘Hail Mary’ at Fukushima Daiichi: An Underground Ice Wall. Excerpt:

FUKUSHIMA DAIICHI NUCLEAR POWER STATION — The part above ground doesn’t look like much, a few silver pipes running in a straight line, dwarfed by the far more massive, scarred reactor buildings nearby.  

More impressive is what is taking shape unseen beneath: an underground wall of frozen dirt 100 feet deep and nearly a mile in length, intended to solve a runaway water crisis threatening the devastated Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan. 

Officially named the Land-Side Impermeable Wall, but better known simply as the ice wall, the project sounds like a fanciful idea from science fiction or a James Bond film. But it is about to become a reality in an ambitious, and controversial, bid to halt an unrelenting flood of groundwater into the damaged reactor buildings since the disaster five years ago when an earthquake and a tsunami caused a triple meltdown.  

Built by the central government at a cost of 35 billion yen, or some $320 million, the ice wall is intended to seal off the reactor buildings within a vast, rectangular-shaped barrier of man-made permafrost. If it becomes successfully operational as soon as this autumn, the frozen soil will act as a dam to block new groundwater from entering the buildings. It will also help stop leaks of radioactive water into the nearby Pacific Ocean, which have decreased significantly since the calamity but may be continuing. 

 However, the ice wall has also been widely criticized as an expensive and overly complex solution that may not even work. Such concerns re-emerged this month after the plant’s operator announced that a section that was switched on more than four months ago had yet to fully freeze. 

Some also warn that the wall, which is electrically powered, may prove as vulnerable to natural disasters as the plant itself, which lost the ability to cool its reactors after the 45-foot tsunami caused a blackout there.

Burning reactor fuel could have worsened the Fukushima disaster

Via Science: Burning reactor fuel could have worsened the Fukushima disaster. Excerpt:

Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse. They feared that spent fuel stored in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo. 

Thanks to a lucky break detailed in a report released today by the U.S. National Academies, Japan dodged that bullet. The near calamity “should serve as a wake-up call for the industry,” says Joseph Shepherd, a mechanical engineer at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena who chaired the academy committee that produced the report. 

Spent fuel accumulating at U.S. nuclear reactor plants is also vulnerable, the report warns. A major spent fuel fire at a U.S. nuclear plant “could dwarf the horrific consequences of the Fukushima accident,” says Edwin Lyman, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit in Washington, D.C., who was not on the panel. 

After spent fuel is removed from a reactor core, the fission products continue to decay radioactively, generating heat. Many nuclear plants, like Fukushima, store the fuel onsite at the bottom of deep pools for at least 5 years while it slowly cools. It is seriously vulnerable there, as the Fukushima accident demonstrated, and so the academy panel recommends that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and nuclear plant operators beef up systems for monitoring the pools and topping up water levels in case a facility is damaged. It also calls for more robust security measures after a disaster. “Disruptions create opportunities for malevolent acts,” Shepherd says.