Any science-fiction story can ask "What if?" A good one makes it a double-barrelled question: "...and what's more?"
Following the disaster coverage at NOLA.com has reminded me of that. We are learning more every minute about the extent of the damage and the efforts of emergency personnel. As I suggested a couple of days ago, New Orleans' suffering is at least giving the world a lesson in how to deal with a major disaster.
Meanwhile, we who worry about avian flu have usually imagined a pandemic as the sole monkey wrench in the works—everything is ticking along, and then someone gets sick, and then it spreads. It's certainly easier to think about it in that light, but we should remember that pandemics don't wait for a quiet moment.
Spanish flu happened during a horrendous war, and our preoccupation with fighting that war was a factor in the pandemic. Political, not medical, priorities threw young recruits together in camps where infection was easy. The media, tamed into mere wartime propagandists, said little or nothing about the thousands dying every day.
So what if we faced a pandemic...and what's more, at least some communities were hit with a disaster like Katrina? What could you do in the Super Dome if people were coming down with avian flu? How would you get people out of wrecked homes if a third of the local National Guard were sick? If Tulane University Hospital had 30 percent of its beds filled with flu patients, how could you evacuate them?
We sometimes speculate on worst-case scenarios. But even SF writers can underestimate what the worst case might really be.
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