H5N1

The politics of pandemics

A few days ago I mentioned that the then-impending hurricane would test the ability of a modern city to deal with disaster: We would be able to see what worked and what didn't, and draw suitable conclusions in planning for a pandemic.

After three days, it looks as if very little has worked, right from the mayor's order to evacuate the city. The evacuation assumed a middle-class population with their own cars and at least some cash. While a few who remained in the city were just bloody-minded, or foolish, most simply had no choice: no car, no money, nowhere to go. They were too poor to save themselves, and no one was going to do it for them.

Protective measures

The Guardian Unlimited asks: How can you protect yourself from bird flu?

... there are measures we can take to limit our chances of picking up the virus if it does reach Britain, says John Oxford, an influenza expert at Queen Mary, University of London.

"Regular handwashing with soap, which seems very old-fashioned, could actually make quite a big difference," he says.

Old-fashioned, perhaps, but anyone who's seen a computer with a bad case of keyboard plaque will know how rarely some people wash their hands. So much for medical progress since 1918.

Falling dominoes

It's probably sensible that Iran bans animal feeds from bird flu countries. Contamination by wild or domestic birds might make such items dangerous, or at least politically unacceptable to purchasers. But who knew that such a ban, imposed August 22, would depress grain prices in Russia? Apparently the grain trade around the Caspian basin is an important part of local economies.

So now it's not just bans on suspect poultry, but anything that might be contaminated and then consumed by birds or mammals that might contract avian flu. This little trade contraction is just a foreshock of what would happen to trade with any country where human-to-human H5N1 is confirmed—or even suspected.

More warnings about the spread of H5N1

Via AgProfessional.com, the FAO warns that wild birds may spread H5N1 to the Middle East, South Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Pigs, bulls die in southern Vietnam

According to Thanh Nien Daily, 200 pigs and 5 bulls in southern Vietnam have died of a mysterious disease. Symptoms included diarrhea, bleeding legs, and drooling. Authorities were investigating the possibility that the animals had been imported from Cambodia. Over a thousand pigs, and over fifty bulls and cows, came down with the disease but appear to have survived. The story mentions no human cases.

H5N1 confirmed in Mongolia, ruled out in Finland

According to CIDRAP, Mongolia has H5N1 but Finland doesn't.

France plans to boost protection against possible bird flu outbreak

From Canadian Press health news, we learn that France plans to boost protection against possible bird flu outbreak.

France will increase its stocks of medicine, vaccinations and protective masks amid concerns about a potential outbreak of bird flu in Europe and a possible resulting human pandemic, the prime minister's office said Tuesday.

The government said it would modify contracts it holds with two companies for vaccinations against a possible human pandemic flu strain that could evolve from bird flu "to ensure vaccinations for the whole population," according to a statement issued after a ministerial meeting.

Vaccinating the whole population is highly ambitious, and might well be impossible. So is this a noble goal, or a cynical promise made only to be broken? I don't know. The story also quotes Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin (the man Bush supporters loved to hate when he opposed the war in Iraq) as urging his government to launch a public information campaign in two weeks. The more such campaigns, the better.

What if...and what's more?

Any science-fiction story can ask "What if?" A good one makes it a double-barrelled question: "...and what's more?"

Following the disaster coverage at NOLA.com has reminded me of that. We are learning more every minute about the extent of the damage and the efforts of emergency personnel. As I suggested a couple of days ago, New Orleans' suffering is at least giving the world a lesson in how to deal with a major disaster.

Meanwhile, we who worry about avian flu have usually imagined a pandemic as the sole monkey wrench in the works—everything is ticking along, and then someone gets sick, and then it spreads. It's certainly easier to think about it in that light, but we should remember that pandemics don't wait for a quiet moment.

Spanish flu happened during a horrendous war, and our preoccupation with fighting that war was a factor in the pandemic. Political, not medical, priorities threw young recruits together in camps where infection was easy. The media, tamed into mere wartime propagandists, said little or nothing about the thousands dying every day.

So what if we faced a pandemic...and what's more, at least some communities were hit with a disaster like Katrina? What could you do in the Super Dome if people were coming down with avian flu? How would you get people out of wrecked homes if a third of the local National Guard were sick? If Tulane University Hospital had 30 percent of its beds filled with flu patients, how could you evacuate them?

We sometimes speculate on worst-case scenarios. But even SF writers can underestimate what the worst case might really be.

A scan of the horizon

Many of the links here come through NewsNow: Bird Flu, a UK service. I've found it invaluable not only for very recent news stories, but because the bird-flu page provides a good scan of what's being said and where.

Often it's the same story, repeated in many outlets. Or it's the same kind of story: Country prepared for avian flu, minister says. As I've noted, some countries are quick to report on dead birds elsewhere while maintaining a discreet silence about the health of their own birds. Regardless, it's a useful glimpse of the big picture that puts the individual stories from Hanoi and Oulu into perspective.

More than birds and humans at risk

News-Medical.net has a story pointing out that a far wider range of wildlife species could be at risk from bird flu. The deaths of the civets in Vietnam is a reminder. If the virus migrates into other mammals (like household cats and dogs, not to mention swine), the pre-pandemic phase will be that much harder to deal with.