H5N1

More from Nature on flu data

Declan Butler has an item on his blog about an editorial and a short news story in Nature: More on flu data access scheme. As always, worth reading.

A new estimate of US pandemic deaths

The full article is for subscribers only, but you can read the abstract of this article in the September issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine: Cases and Deaths During Influenza Pandemics in the United States. Excerpt:

Across pandemic scenarios, overall case (“attack”) rates ranged from 24.7% to 34.2%, and overall death rates ranged from 4.4 to 6.7 per 1000. In both referent populations, total cases and deaths were significantly higher when using 1957-like and 1968-like, compared to 1918-like, case rates.

Under all pandemic scenarios, the most deaths occurred among those aged 25 to 29 years. However, in the 2006 referent population, there were large numbers and high proportions of deaths in middle-aged and elderly adults (unlike during the 1918–1919 pandemic).

Virus bites dog is old news

The Nation, a Thai news source, follows up yesterday's story by showing it's really a story from yesteryear: Dog died of flu in 2004.

An academic who discovered that a dog in Thailand had died of bird flu said yesterday that people should not panic, as the virus could not jump from a dog to humans.

"There is no need to worry," Assoc Prof Taweesak Songserm said. He is a vet and lecturer at the Faculty of Veterinarian Science of Kasetsart University's Kamphaengsaen campus.

His finding that a dog could contract bird flu by eating infected ducks were raised at a seminar on Wednesday and became a hot news item. Taweesak said he found the bird-flu virus in the body of a dog in 2004, collected from Suphan Buri when a large number of ducks died.

"This means such infection will take place only when there are too many dead fowl to bury in time," he said. He said there was a minimal chance of such a scenario recurring.

"I have never found any more dogs that have got bird flu."

Over the past two years the ministry had ordered most ducks be put in closed farms, he said, so only a few remain in fields.

Dr Charal Trinvuthipong, an assistant to the Agriculture Minister, said news that a dog could contract bird flu was no surprise, given that the dog was a mammal.

"We have heard about tigers and a cat getting bird flu before," he said.

However, there was no report that bird flu could jump from mammals to humans.

Guan Yi: Step up animal surveillance in Indonesia

Via Reuters: Expert calls for animal surveillance in Indonesia. When the expert is Dr. Guan Yi, we'd better listen. Excerpt:

A leading bird flu expert urged Indonesia on Thursday to do more animal surveillance to curb the H5N1 virus, which has killed 46 people so far in the country, the highest death toll anywhere in the world.

The virus was first detected in the Indonesian archipelago in late 2003 and is now endemic in almost all of its provinces, due in part to reluctance to carry out mass culling of birds.

"Indonesia should do more animal surveillance and understand how the virus behaves. It is a place that causes concern," said Guan Yi, a microbiology professor at the University of Hong Kong.

"Since 2003, it has had no new introduction of the H5N1. It has only one strain, but its problem is like China's. It can't clean it up," said Guan, who has studied the virus since 1997, when it made its first known jump to humans in Hong Kong.

Guan's call came as 4 people were admitted to an Indonesian hospital with bird flu symptoms in an area of West Java that has seen a series of confirmed and suspected cases in humans.

At least two people in Cikelet, about 90 km (55 miles) south of the provincial capital of West Java, Bandung, have been confirmed to have died from the H5N1 virus in recent weeks.

Drop-in flu clinics?

Via Reuters: Four treated in Indonesia for H5N1 symptoms. The real story is not the number of suspected cases, but the casual attitude of the "patients":

Separately, a local health ministry official said three out of five people admitted to hospital on Indonesia's Sulawesi island this week with bird-flu like symptoms were related.

"Three are related, they are cousins," said Ida Bagus Yadnya Putra, head of communicable disease control at the health ministry in Central Sulawesi province.
The official said that dead chickens had been found around their homes.

"They came to hospital to get medicine but refused to stay for treatment. They didn't come to the hospital at the same time. Now, they are getting better."

Blood samples from the five had also been sent to Jakarta for testing.

Amazing.

Vietnam PM warns provinces about H5N1

Via Thanh Nien Daily: Vietnam PM warns provinces to guard against bird flu.

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung again urged provinces Wednesday to increase their vigilance against the renewed threat of bird flu outbreaks.

Provinces in the central highlands and Mekong Delta in particular should strengthen supervision at borders to prevent illegal poultry transport from neighboring countries, he said.

His warning comes a few days after the national steering committee on bird flu prevention instructed local governments to build “lines of defense” and ban breeding of waterfowl from September 1st.

On Monday several ducks from a market in Hanoi were found to be H5N1-positive following tests by the National Center for Animal Health Diagnosis, raising fears of fresh bird-flu outbreaks in the country.

In related news, Mekong Delta provinces have recently destroyed scores of ducks, especially newborn and free-ranging, to stop the virus’ spread.

In the last three years 42 people in Vietnam have been killed by the H5N1 virus.

How to twist arms and influence people

Earlier today the World Bank was complaining about Indonesia's cutback on money to fight H5N1 (see below). Now, via People's Daily Online, we learn: Indonesia to increase funds for fighting bird flu. Excerpt:

Indonesia, the most bird flu hard-hit country, vowed to increase budget for combating avian influenza in the country, where 46 out of 60 contracted people have died, vice President Jusuf Kalla said Wednesday.

Kalla was quoted by World Bank top official for Indonesia Andrew Steer as saying that the country would return the possibly-declined budget of 45 million U.S. dollars in 2007 to about 54 million U.S. dollars.

"Jusuf Kalla said, if it (the funds) is declining, he wants to reverse," he said after meeting with Kalla at the vice president's office.

Steer said that the decline of the budget would hamper efforts to attract donors' participation, as they would see the lower contribution of Indonesia alone.

He said he and Kalla agreed that Indonesia needs about 250 million U.S. dollars a year for combating avian influenza.

Bird flu interview extras

Chad Bouchard's Indo Stories blog is becoming invaluable. Today he's posted Bird Flu Interview Extras, audio clips that didn't make it into his "Bird Flu Radio Story."

World Bank calls on Indonesia to do more

Via the Jakarta Post: World Bank calls on Indonesia to do more to fight bird flu virus. Excerpt:

The World Bank criticized Indonesia's efforts to fight bird flu, saying Wednesday the country must increase its spending on the virus if it wants more financial help from the international community.

"To be honest, Indonesia has not done well with avian influenza," World Bank Country Director Andrew Steer told reporters after talks with the country's Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

Indonesia, the worst-hit country by bird flu, said last week it was allocating US$46.5 million (euro36.3 million) to fight bird flu next year, down from US$54.4 million this year.

But Kalla indicated that the government was ready to spend more, Steer said.

"(Kalla) wants to reverse that (policy)," Steer said. Steer said it would be hard to raise more international funds without greater government commitment.

"Our job is to go out into the international community and raise as much funding as possible," he said. "But it's difficult to make a case if Indonesia's contribution is declining."

Thailand imports Chinese vaccine technology

Via the Bangkok Post: Thailand to use Chinese expertise.

Thailand will adopt Chinese technology to develop an influenza vaccine, part of the national bird flu preparedness plan, said Medical Sciences Department chief Paijit Warachit yesterday. Mr Paijit, who chairs the influenza and bird flu vaccine preparation committee, said the committee had reached the conclusion on Tuesday that it would work with a Chinese firm, Sinovac Biotechnology, in the construction of a vaccine manufacturing plant here.

The project would cost more than 400 million baht, he said, adding that the plant would also be able to produce a bird flu vaccine for humans in the future.

The committee earlier asked a number of foreign partners to co-invest in the influenza vaccine production, but could not settle the deal because they wanted to invest in the production themselves and required Thailand to buy up to 10 million doses of the vaccine, outnumbering domestic needs, Dr Paijit said.

The committee decided to enter into the joint venture with Sinovac Biotechnology because the firm was willing to transfer technology to Thailand, he said.