H5N1

Don't try to take mooncakes to Oz, Chinese told

Via Reuters: Don't try to take mooncakes to Oz, Chinese told.

China told its people on Thursday not to take mooncakes containing egg yolk or meat to Australia because of the threat of bird flu and other diseases.

The Foreign Ministry reminded people heading to Australia for the Sept. 25 Mid-Autumn Festival of strict quarantine laws which prohibit the import of a wide range of food for fear of diseases such as bird flu, Newcastle disease and foot and mouth.

The strict quarantine laws carry fines of up to $49,000 and 10 years' jail for failure to declare banned foods.

"The bans are necessary to protect Australia's high animal, plant and human health standards from exotic pests and guard lucrative overseas export products," the government said.

Mooncakes, a sweet, pastry with a bean or nut base and an acquired taste for many in the West, are a traditional treat for Chinese around the world during the Mid-Autumn, or Moon, Festival.

When my wife and I taught in China in the fall of 1983, everyone offered us moon cakes. We did not, I'm sorry to say, acquire a taste for them. Instead we just had to choke them down and smile.

Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics

This report from Emerging Infectious Diseases has a bearing on the post just below: Frequent Travelers and Rate of Spread of Epidemics. Abstract, re-paragraphed:

A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases.

Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute
respiratory syndrome–like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest.

Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly.

If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.

Hong Kong calls for regional co-op against avian flu on air travel

Via Xinhuanet: HK calls for regional co-op against avian flu on air travel. Excerpt:

An official of the Hong Kong civil aviation on Thursday called for regional cooperation to curb the spread of avian flu on air travel.

At the opening of a two-day meeting of the International Civil Aviation, Norman Lo, Director-General of Civil Aviation of the government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region said that the International Civil Aviation Organization has initiated the arrangement to coordinate the cooperative arrangements among the participating jurisdictions and airports to reduce the risk of spreading avian influenza and similar illnesses via air travel.

Lo made the remarks at the opening of the Cooperative Arrangement for Preventing the Spread of Communicable Diseases through Air Travel First Steering Committee Meeting.

About 60 delegates from 25 organizations including the International Civil Aviation Organization, World Health Organization, International Air Transport Association and Airports Council International are attending the meeting.

New flu strain 'could kill 650,000'

This is not the kind of story I like to post, because it's so conjectural, and we've seen stories like it for over two years. Still, I guess it's a news development of sorts. Via News4, a UK news source: New flu strain 'could kill 650,000.' Excerpt:

Up to 650,000 people could die in England and Wales in the event of a flu pandemic, an official report has warned.

The Home Office document outlined plans for dealing with an outbreak, including the possibility of mass burials and storing dead bodies in refrigerated trailers.

Processes for dealing with mass casualties were likely to be overwhelmed at the height of a pandemic, with up to 22% extra deaths at its height, said the paper.

Its plans would apply if a new strain of "ordinary" flu emerged, or if avian flu became easily transmitted from birds to humans.

Officials projected between 48,000 and 650,000 deaths depending on a "base" case scenario and a "worst" case scenario.

Even the prudent projections involved 320,000 mortalities from a human flu pandemic.

Child hospitalized in Bali for suspected bird flu

Via People's Daily Online: Child hospitalized in Bali for suspected bird flu. Excerpt:

A four-year-old child was admitted to hospital on the Indonesian resort island of Bali after developing bird flu-like symptoms, local press said Thursday.

The child suffered from high fever and breathing problems and neighbors had spotted him playing with dead chickens, reported leading news website Detikcom.

Has H5N1 returned to Thailand?

Via the Bangkok Post: Mae Hong Son on bird flu alert.

There have been reports that 121 ducks and chickens have mysteriously died in Mae Hong Son province although it is still unclear whether the birds had contracted the H5N1 virus or avian influenza.

The latest deaths were reported near a refugee camp at Baan Mae Surin. Public health officials have already been called in to cull the rest of the flock to ensure if the animals had died from H5N1, the virus does not spread.

According to authorities at the camp, the first ducks and chickens began to die about three days ago.

Two female refugees have also fallen ill.

Deputy governor of Mae Hong Son province, Wanchai Suthiworachai said health authorities have been dispatched to monitor the situation very closely to keep the spread of avian influenza at bay.

Hong Kong's reaction to the Hutchinson study (updated)

Well, I wanted a debate on the Hutchinson study (see below) and it's already happening. Via The Standard, a Hong Kong business journal: Study finds high bird flu transmission rate. The story brings in some local bird-flu heavy hitters, whose opinions deserve attention. Excerpt:

Hong Kong University microbiologist Malik Peiris said the new findings do not necessarily mean the virus is moving closer to human-to-human transmission.

"What's worrying is if there's sustained transmission, if it keeps going sequentially from human to human to human - but it hasn't done so, so far," he said.

Peiris noted that the finding of human-to-human transmission in Indonesia is not ground-breaking and should not add to unnecessary worries.

The six deaths from 18 human infection cases of bird flu in Hong Kong in 1997 were the world's first-known cases.

Another microbiologist, Lo Wing- lok, described the human-to-human transmission rate of 29 percent as "alarming," but he stressed the rate only applies to a certain part of Indonesia and under specific circumstances.

"The family of eight in Indonesia lived in a very crowded location, the people there have lower health awareness and have little access to medical care. All these do not apply in Hong Kong, " Lo said.

"Hong Kong people are already highly aware and worried about it, and we already have easily accessible medical services."

Update: Just a thought, really, but the Indonesian English media have been profoundly silent on the Hutchinson study. Nothing in Antara, Jakarta Post, or the government flu sites. But the Gintings were (and are) Indonesians. Whatever the value of the study, you'd think Indonesian media would pick it up and discuss it—even if only to rebut it.

Is the Hutchinson study reliable?

Like other bloggers, Scott McPherson posted recently on the study that confirms human-to-human transmission of H5N1 in the Ginting family outbreak of 2006. Today he's posted some second thoughts:

This morning, I emailed a friend of mine -- someone who is a "household name" in all influenza circles, and who is one of the few people the general public recognizes as expert on the topic of avian flu and pandemic preparedness.

Anyway, I casually mentioned the Hutch study as a way to snap America out of the doldrums when it comes to pandemic plans. He immediately called me to say to use caution when quoting from the study, as he felt strongly that the statistics and the study itself may not be dependable. That is putting it mildly.

I've had a similar heads-up from a knowledgeable reader. The item was already a little confusing: It started with a news release yesterday, and then it turned out the study (which was supposed to come later) had actually been published in Emerging Infectious Diseases last month. It was as if someone was trying to spark public interest after the study itself had failed to do so.

Well, NewsNow lit up as the story circled the world, but maybe it didn't deserve to. The Hutchinson study does deserve careful, informed analysis—that's what scientific publication is all about.

The Gintings may well have died through a "B2H2H" transmission, and so may the Kocyigit family in Turkey. But first let's see if other scientists accept (or reject) the Hutchinson study's methods and results.

Financial services firms face flu pandemic -- on paper

Via Computerworld.com: Financial services firms face flu pandemic -- on paper. Excerpt:

What may be the largest pandemic planning exercise ever conducted in the U.S. is set to begin next month. The dry run will force financial services firms to operate with shrinking numbers of employees -- on paper, at least.

More than 1,800 organizations have signed up to participate in the three-week simulation, which is being sponsored by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

The exercise will also cover telecommunications issues. But it won't cause any service disruptions, such as long lines at ATMs or problems reaching online banking sites. Instead, participants will gather in conference rooms and assess how their businesses would be affected if a bird flu outbreak or other pandemic resulted in major reductions in the number of available employees.

Jim Binder, a spokesman for The Operations Clearing Corp., said the Chicago-based provider of derivatives clearing and settlement services will have 30 to 40 workers involved in the planning exercise. The full details of how the simulation will unfold are being kept secret until it starts Sept. 24, Binder said.

But, he added, the program will follow a compressed time frame that simulates the impact of a 12-week pandemic wave. Participants will be given information on how many absentee employees they can expect. Companies won't know exactly how hard they will be hit with sick calls from employees until this data is made available, Binder said.

In addition, participating companies won't be able to pick and choose the level of workforce reductions they get hit by.

Vietnam willing to share H5N1 information

Via Thanh Nien Daily: Vietnam to share bird flu info: official. Excerpt:

Vietnam is willing to share information related to the country’s fight against bird flu, particularly virus samples found on humans and animals, an official told a workshop in Hanoi Wednesday.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Bui Ba Bong told the two day international workshop that seven people in Vietnam had been infected this year, four fatally, bringing the death toll to 46 since 2003, when the virus first reared its ugly head in Vietnam.

Five provinces out of the country’s 64 are still plagued by the disease.

According to the Vietnamese Animal Health Department, all poultry flocks that have succumbed to the H5N1 virus were found to be unvaccinated. As a result, vaccination programs are set to continue throughout the country.

At the workshop, experts from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and domestic experts discussed some of the more problematic issues surrounding bird flu in Vietnam.

FAO expert Les Sim said his organization would further provide technical assistance to the country.

Sim also said Vietnam’s national program on bird flu prevention should focus more on veterinary work, especially at the grassroots level.

He suggested that the country raise poultry breeders’ awareness of the vaccination program and be active in coping with difficulties arising from the vaccination of free-range ducks.