H5N1

Welcome to another flu blog

A few days ago I created a link in H5N1 Flu Bloggers to Preparedness and Response. I didn't make a fuss about it because the blogger, a doctor named Joel, is moving to California and not posting at the moment.

But keep an eye on this blog. It looks like a good one.

Thailand: Suspected bird flu victim dies

This may be the start of the 2008-09 H5N1 season. Via the Bangkok Post: Suspected bird flu victim dies. Excerpt:

A worker on a free-range duck farm died from bird flu-like symptoms in Pho Prathap Chang district yesterday, and health authorities put his 12-year-old son under close observation for signs of infection with the virus.

Manee Mankhetkit, 48, was taken to the provincial hospital on Monday after he developed a high fever, suffered from a cough, sore throat, chest pains and breathing difficulties.

The man was treated in an isolated intensive care ward because he had come into contact with fowls. He was a hired hand at a duck farm which has more than 1,600 birds. Doctors pronounced him dead due to kidney and heart failure.

His 12-year-old son Sakda, who worked alongside his father, was taken to Phichit hospital yesterday. He too was put in an isolation ward for observation, and no visitors were allowed to see him.

Livestock officials have collected samples from the free-range ducks, which have being dying in big numbers over the past week, for testing for the bird flu virus.

Public health permanent-secretary Prat Boonyawongwirot said lab tests were being made on samples collected from the dead man's body to see whether he was infected with the deadly H5N1 virus as believed.

The results were expected to be released today.

Dr Prat said leptospirosis could also not be ruled out as a possible cause of death as the area was affected by floods.

There were reports of poultry, particularly free-range ducks, dying en masse in the district during the past week.

Although an avian flu outbreak has never occurred in the district, Phichit was listed as an avian influenza epidemic zone, he said.

And if it is H5N1, we'll at least get prompt confirmation from both Bangkok and WHO.

The wisdom of the Togolese

Via Reuters, a story from IRIN: TOGO: 17,000 poultry killed in latest flu outbreak . Excerpt:

Some 17,000 birds died or have been culled since the outbreak of the H5N1 avian flu virus on 9 September on three poultry farms in Agbata, located 10km east of Lome, according to the country's livestock director, Komla Batawui.

Zero tolerance

The UN Food and Agricultural Organization adviser to the government, Jacques Conforti, says the risk has been contained.

"We focused on free-range poultry, and did not cull poultry in coops in the areas surrounding Agbata. This [the culling] should reduce the risk of the virus spreading to zero."

Conforti says the disinfection has moved along quickly in the past three weeks,

"We do not want to lose any time. We try to disinfect a zone in less than 24 hours before moving to the next at-risk area."

He says officials meet with farmers who point out any sick birds, cull the birds, and pay the farmers for the value of the bird, eggs or bird feed that is destroyed.

Officials have paid close to US$9,000 so far to farmers to compensate them for their losses since the latest outbreak.

That's less than 50 cents a bird. And since they're paying right then and there, it's a very smart investment. Farmers hit by future outbreaks won't conceal sick birds for fear of being left to wait months for compensation.

Bird smuggler: A for enterprise, F for stupidity

Via MSNBC.com: Man nabbed at airport with 200 birds in bag. Excerpt:

Brazilian authorities detained a Portuguese man at São Paulo's international airport with 200 birds in his bag, police said on Thursday.

Customs officials found 65 of 200 Canary birds dead, the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement. Police will charge the man, who arrived from Peru and resides in Brazil, with animal trafficking, a federal police officer at the airport said.

Vietnam: Quarantine checkpoints built into new border-gate zones

Via Viet Nam News: Dong Thap develops border zones. The zones are on the Cambodian border, designed mostly to improve trade. Excerpt:

Incentive policies on land, tax and licensing procedures were developed by provincial authorities to get domestic and overseas investors to set up shop at both Thuong Phuoc and Dinh Ba border economic zones.

Land clearance and compensation were expedited to make room for public utility projects like animal quarantine check posts to prevent outbreaks of bird flu or blue ear pig disease as well as marketplaces and health clinics.

Now H3N2 is a worry

Thanks to Ma Yingshen at Chen Qi for the tip about this Yahoo News India story: Deadly Australian flu 'heading for Britain'. Excerpt:

Health officials have changed the flu vaccination over fears a deadly strain from Australia, called Brisbane H3N2, could arrive in Britain.

The virus has already claimed the lives of scores of children in Australia. It affects three times the number of victims hit by other strains, with many deaths resulting from pneumonia.

The flu strain is so virulent that health chiefs have had to change the make-up of the flu vaccine to deal with it.

Between June and July 2007 in New South Wales, there were more than 800 deaths from pneumonia, many of them children.

It is common for viruses to head up from the southern hemisphere in the winter but experts say we are at greater risk this year.

"If the seasonal flu is as bad as it was in Australia, you are in for a torrid time," the Daily Star quoted inventor of the flu vaccine, Dr Graeme Laver, as warning Britain.

The panic of '08 continues

It's just past noon Tuesday in Australia, and The Sydney Morning Herald reports more bad news: Shares plunge amid global meltdown. CNN's world markets report looks grim.

Here in Canada, the Toronto Stock Exchange suffered a loss of 841 points. That's our biggest drop in one day, ever—just as the Dow drop of 777 points was for the US.

But a couple of finance experts I interviewed this afternoon for The Tyee say Canada is actually in pretty good shape compared to the US.

I confess I sympathize with the Republicans and Democrats who voted against the bailout. It didn't look like a very reasonable solution, and it rewarded the very guys who caused the problem. The markets' response may push the US Congress into drafting a more reasonable plan.

But whatever happens, public health is likely to become a less urgent priority around the world. Countries like Indonesia and Vietnam will try to cope on reduced budgets while dealing with more (and angrier) unemployed. This does not bode well for fighting the next pandemic.

Are patented flu treatments unaffordable?

That's the view of Ed Hammond at Immunocompetent: Unaffordable is What Happens When Flu Treatments are Patented. Excerpt, re-paragraphed:

Roche and Glaxo, with their flu antivirals Tamiflu and Relenza (respectively), are offering us a little preview of what's going to happen with pandemic vaccines (and other biologicals) if the patent trend continues unabated. What happens, in a phrase, is that the rich get treated and the poor get dead.

Today's news brings an item about Roche and Glaxo's hawking of their drugs to corporations for private stockpiles. Think of it as a sort of pandemic "health insurance", mega-corporation style.

According to this report, the pharma giants are hoping to convince corporations to buy a pandemic drug stockpile for their employees for $6 per person (course) per year (Tamiflu) or $37 per course (Relenza).

(I'm going to put the vulgarity of determining who gets antivirals on the basis of their employer - as opposed to need - aside for this post and focus on the economics.)

Worth reading and considering.

Indonesia as a pharmaceuticals market

Via Research and Markets, a very interesting report: Indonesia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2008. Excerpt:

Indonesia has a rapidly growing population of 240 million and has witnessed many of its neighbours, such as India and China, going through periods of rapid economic growth.

However, it remains one of the poorest in the region. The country faces both economic and healthcare threats, such as rising inflation and the increasing prevalence of HIV/AIDS, avian flu and dengue fever.

Despite this, life expectancy is increasing (from 66.2 years in 2004 to 69.4 in 2006) and baby mortality is decreasing (from 36/100 births in 2003 to 32/1000 births in 2006).

This is despite a healthcare insurance system that is overly complicated and has resulted in many of the country’s poorest having inadequate and incomplete access to free/affordable healthcare.

The growing population ensures that despite the low per capita consumption of pharmaceuticals, the pharmaceutical market is predicted to grow at around 5-6% per annum to reach US$3.75bn in 2012.

Sales of traditional herbal medicines, known as jamu, are expected to considerably outpace those of conventional pharmaceuticals in terms of annual growth. Recent government support for jamu could also result in increased revenues from export.

The most significant threat to the country’s continuing healthcare development is its patent protection and the volume of counterfeit products.

Despite action being taken in these areas, progress is unconvincing.

So maybe that's the reason for Dr. Supari's attitude: If she releases H5N1 virus samples, the West will develop a vaccine, but Indonesians themselves will cook up a bogus version.

I know—it's just idle speculation. What else do we have when Indonesia doesn't release any real news?

Don't retire

That's my hard-won advice to you youngsters: Retirement, like old age itself, is not for the faint of heart. After 41 years I taught my last class in April, and the pace has only picked up since then.

I have a book on BC's black pioneers coming out in two or three weeks. The publisher of my book on writing for the web wants a fourth edition, as well as a proposal for yet another book on writing and selling nonfiction books.

(If you'd like to support this blog, please feel free to order the webwriting book, or the book on writing SF and fantasy, or some of my novels, listed near the bottom of the right-hand column.)

And Monday morning I start my first really new job since 1967 as a part-time editor at The Tyee.

I've also learned this summer that a 67-year-old ex-academic can paint the house or chop firewood for about an hour a day. More than that, and I teeter toward a vegetative coma.

I'll keep posting here as much as I can, especially if we get more human cases this fall. And we will. If you hear something before I do, drop me a note about it.

But if H5N1 seems too quiet, it's because I'm doing a whole lot of other things as well. Thanks for your patience.