Border controls tighten despite WHO

Via the New York Times: Border Controls Are Tighter as Swine Flu Cases Rise. But that's not the story. Excerpt:

In Mexico, 20 fatalities have been confirmed, and the number of deaths considered likely to have been caused by the flu rose to 152, up from 149 on Monday, according to Mexico’s health minister. The number of people believed to be infected surpassed 1,600. 

In the United States, the number of infections stood at 50. Preliminary tests by health officials in New Jersey had identified five “probable” cases — four people who were recently in Mexico and one who had been in California, The Associated Press reported.

Assuming most Mexican cases have been identified, and all 152 deaths are confirmed as H1N1, that would mean a case fatality ratio (CFR) of 10.5 percent—far below the 80 percent implied by the quote from a father and daughter who survived the disease. (See below, "Tuesday morning in Mexico," for details.)

But the Spanish flu's CFR, at least in most parts of the US, was around 2.5 percent. (In some Native American communities it was close to 100 percent.) 

So if no one's died outside Mexico, that could be just a matter of being in the lucky 89.5 percent. We'll need much better data (and better-informed analysis than I can provide) to understand what's going on.