Second thoughts about the second wave

Via The Independent in the UK: Swine flu may have peaked, experts say. Excerpt:

An expected second wave of pandemic influenza which was expected to strike Britain later this year may turn out to be less dangerous than previously thought, according to some of the world's leading flu experts. 

Scientists are having second thoughts about whether they were right to expect a more lethal form of H1N1 swine flu virus to emerge this autumn following a re-evaluation of previous influenza pandemics. 

A separate survey of the world's leading flu scientists has also found that the vast majority of experts do not think a nastier form of the virus is likely to emerge. 

They said the chances of a more virulent version of the H1N1 influenza A virus emerging when the winter flu season begins is 50/50 or less. 

In a second study, two virologists reviewed the possibility of a more lethal second wave by looking at the known patterns of spread for the 14 or so previous influenza pandemics from that have occurred over the past 500 years. 

They found little evidence to support the likelihood of a second or third more lethal wave of H1N1 influenza. 

However, most influenza experts emphasised that the flu virus is notoriously unpredictable and there is always a chance – however small – that the swine flu virus could mutate, with serious consequences for public health.

I'm not too worried about a mysterious mutation of H1N1, or some grisly blend of swine flu and bird flu. But the present outbreak has already inflicted a high cost, economically and politically, albeit in countries that the northern hemisphere rarely thinks about.

A new outbreak in the northern hemisphere will at least get the attention of some of the most narcissistic cultures on the planet. But don't expect the death toll to be like 1918-19. (Even then, people shrugged off the deaths.) 

But I think we can expect the narcissistic cultures (the US, Canada, western Europe) to find a new outbreak to be a Major Nuisance, with schools closed, malls shut, and other annoyances. Not to mention the fall in the gross domestic product resulting from workers staying home because they're sick or tending sick children.