Dr. James Wilson runs the Haiti Epidemic Advisory System (HEAS) blog, where this very interesting post appeared today: Village Level Cholera Forecast Validation. Excerpt:
Basically, the forecasts vs. the actual outcomes for:
1) Anse-Rouge was outstanding with three peaks in both, and with both the timing and the amplitudes of the 2nd and 3rd peaks right on.
2) Gonaives was solid with three peaks in both but only okay as the timing and amplitude of the 1st and 3rd peaks are off while that of the 2nd peak was right on.
3) Marmelade was solid with three peaks in both and okay as the timing and amplitude of the 1st and 3rd peaks are right on while that of the very broad 2nd peak was off.
4) TerrNeuve was off in the timing of the peaks, but the amplitudes of the peaks were solid and the number of peaks, with six predicted and six occurring, was outstanding.
5) Ennery was very good as both the timing and amplitudes of the actual and predicted 5th peaks were right on, however while the forecast was for four peaks and there were five actual, the predicted 3rd peak fell between the 3rd and 4th actual peaks, the agreement was not too bad overall. Additionally, considering the relatively high and low numbers of actual and predicted cases, the comparison is very good.
6) Grosmorne was okay considering the low number of cases.
7) St. Michel shows a mixed outcome as the only one peak was predicted and the timing and amplitude of that peak vs. the actual realization was outstanding, however the forecast missed the 2nd and 3rd peaks entirely.Click through for his discussion and the graphs that it's based on.
