Three weeks ago, on Saturday March 30, I had no idea what was about to hit us, and since the morning of March 31 it's been a constant struggle to keep track and keep perspective. Each batch of Google Alerts brings new case and death numbers, often obsolete. Summaries come in from FluTrackers, WHO, ECDC, and various news sources—exciting and exhausting in equal measure.
This afternoon I caught my breath, put on an old Modern Jazz Quartet album, and tried to sort out at least the past week. And it's been an instructive exercise.
Last Saturday, April 13, we were upset about the little Yao girl in Beijing and her asymptomatic 4-year-old neighbour across the street. Henan had just joined the ranks of the H7N9-positive provinces, with two cases. The whole People's Republic of China tallied 49 cases and 11 deaths (a case fatality rate of 22%), with no deaths since April 11.
This Saturday (which is already early Sunday in China), we have 96 cases and 18 deaths. That's a near-doubling of cases but an encouraging fall in the case fatality rate to 18%. Several cases have recovered and gone home; I hope they all get frequent follow-up visits from public health people, especially the Yao family.
Now let's hope that we don't see another doubling in the coming week, we don't get confirmed human-to-human-to-human cases (especially cases of healthcare workers), and that H7N9 doesn't turn up somewhere far from home like Hong Kong. Or Seoul, or San Francisco.
