Via the South China Morning Post: Deadly Hong Kong flu outbreak ‘won’t spread to mainland’, says disease expert. Excerpt:
The influenza outbreak that has killed 326 people in Hong Kong since the start of the year will be over in two more months, says a top respiratory disease specialist in China, hailed as a hero for fighting severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003.
Dr Zhong Nanshan made his prediction as the H3N2 virus took eight more lives yesterday.
"The outbreak will probably peak in March … and may be over in April or May," Zhong, head of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases under Guangzhou Medical University, said in Beijing, on the sidelines of annual meetings of the National People's Congress.
He believed the risk of the Hong Kong outbreak developing into an epidemic was low.
"Hong Kong often sees new forms of flu at this time of year," he said.
During the Sars epidemic, Zhong proposed implementing early diagnosis, quarantine and treatment. Under his guidance, Guangdong had the fewest Sars deaths and highest number of recoveries across the nation and the provincial government gave him a top merit award.
The H3N2 strain of flu, despite the large number of deaths, is not considered as threatening as Sars because nearly all the victims have been elderly and infirm, with low immunity.
Outbreaks in the past four weeks had occurred mainly in homes for the elderly and in schools. This week, Hong Kong has recorded seven institutional outbreaks involving 38 people.
