Via the National Bureau of Economic Research, a cautionary tale: Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident. The abstract, and then a comment:
This paper provides a large scale, empirical evaluation of unintended effects from invoking the precautionary principle after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.
After the accident, all nuclear power stations ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, causing an exogenous increase in electricity prices. This increase led to a reduction in energy consumption, which caused an increase in mortality during very cold temperatures.
We estimate that the increase in mortality from higher electricity prices outnumbers the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.
I've been thinking a lot lately about the inevitably higher costs of a sustainable economy of the kind envisaged by the "Green New Deal" advocates. This study tends to confirm my suspicions that without an equal level of prosperity for everyone, sustainability will be impossible.
