H5N1

COVID-19 in Arizona on Tuesday night: 4,682 new cases, 44 deaths

A screenshot from the ADHS - Data Dashboard:

COVID-19 in Brazil on Tuesday night: 33,846 new cases, 1,280 deaths

A screenshot from the Ministry of Health's Coronavírus Brasil dashboard:

Fauci says US COVID-19 death toll 'going to be very disturbing' and fears 100,000 daily cases

Via The Guardian: Fauci says US death toll 'going to be very disturbing' and fears 100,000 daily cases. Excerpt:

Dr Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease expert, has said the country could see 100,000 new coronavirus cases daily unless action is taken to reverse the epidemic.

Appearing before the Senate health, education, labor and pensions committee on Tuesday, Fauci warned that the US is “going in the wrong direction” over handling the coronavirus, and said the death toll “is going to be very disturbing”.  

He appeared a day after the White House insisted the outbreak had been reduced to “embers” but the principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr Anne Schuchat, insisted: “This is really the beginning.” 

Speaking on Capitol Hill, Fauci was asked about the increase in new cases of coronavirus – the US last week reported 40,000 in one day – and whether the pandemic was under control.  

“The numbers speak for themselves,” he said. “I’m very concerned, I’m not satisfied with what’s going on, because we’re going in the wrong direction. 

“Clearly we’re not in total control.” 

Fauci said that without a more robust response, the daily number of cases could more than double.  

“I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around,” he said. 

Fauci said he could not provide an estimated death toll, but said: “It is going to be very disturbing, I guarantee you that.”  

The stark warning came after Schuchat told the Journal of the American Medical Association: “What we hope is that we can take it seriously and slow the transmission. We have way too much virus across the country for that right now, so it’s very discouraging.” 

She added that there was “a lot of wishful thinking around the country” that the pandemic would be over by the summer.  

“We are not even beginning to be over this,” Schuchat said. “There are a lot of worrisome factors about the last week or so.  

“We’re not in the situation of New Zealand or Singapore or Korea, where a new case is rapidly identified and all the contacts are traced, and people are isolated who are sick, and people who are exposed are quarantined and they can keep things under control.” 

Testifying before the Senate committee, Fauci said he was “quite concerned about what we are seeing evolve right now in several states” which had moved quickly in attempts to return to normal.  

“They need to follow the guidelines that have been very carefully laid out with regard to [reopening] checkpoints. What we’ve seen in several states are different iterations of that, perhaps maybe in some, they’re going too quickly and skipping over some.”

COVD-19 in Florida, June 30: 6,093 new cases

A screenshot from Rebekah Jones's Florida's Community Coronavirus Dashboard:

On June 28, the case count was 151,121; new cases were 8,531; and deaths were 3,518. According to the weekly cases graph in the lower right corner, case number rose from 23,900 on June 22 to 49,100 on June 29.

Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and Modelling

The Public Health Agency of Canada has published Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and Modelling. This is a 21-page PDF which offers very up-to-date information; it may be useful to persons in other countries as well.

Download Update_covid_19_Canada_epidemiology_modelling_29june2020

COVID-19 messes with Texas: What went wrong, and what other states can learn as younger people get sick

Via The Conversation: COVID-19 messes with Texas: What went wrong, and what other states can learn as younger people get sick. Excerpt:

The July 4 holiday weekend usually means cookouts and big gatherings in Texas, but right now, the state is facing a public health catastrophe. 

Hospitals in Dallas and Houston are nearing ICU capacity as the number of COVID-19 cases spikes across the state. The death toll from the virus is up 50% from a month ago. 

It did not begin like this. Texas had lower COVID-19 rates and case counts than many other large states through most of the spring.  

What happened, and what can be done to turn it around now? As Gov. Greg Abbott halts plans to further reopen the economy, orders bars closed and limits large gatherings, the answers to both of those questions may hold lessons for other states. 

As public health researchers and professors at Texas A&M University, we have been monitoring the shifting dynamics of the disease’s spread to help county and state officials plan for increasing health care and other needs related to COVID-19.  

Texas started out doing well 

When the pandemic arrived in Texas in early March, state officials provided clear messages that the virus was a dangerous threat and that public health safety precautions would be necessary. 

They ordered travel restrictions between Texas and Louisiana, where New Orleans had an outbreak, and instituted a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for anyone from high-risk areas flying into the state. Local leaders issued stay-at-home orders, and the governor followed with a similar statewide order in April and closed nonessential businesses. 

As the shutdown continued, however, COVID-19 cases didn’t overwhelm the health care system as feared. The governor allowed the stay-at-home order to lapse on April 30 and began reopening the economy. The weekend the order ended, Texas’ beaches were crowded with people, many no longer worrying about social distancing or wearing masks. Restaurants and bars began reopening, bringing more people together. 

Now, the risk has shifted again, and in a very short time frame. Since June 1, there have been over 70,000 new confirmed cases in Texas, with daily increases reaching more than 6,000. 

Where previously the confirmed COVID-19 cases tended to occur in clusters around the state such as nursing homes, assisted living facilities and processing plants, the phased reopening of businesses provided new opportunities for disease spread in the broader community. The people infected now are notably younger and concentrated in the largest cities.  

Abbott said the state had identified bars as one of the most dangerous spreaders of the virus, and he expressed regret about allowing them to reopen so quickly. “If I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars,” he told KVIA. “People go to bars to get close and to drink and to socialize, and that’s the kind of thing that stokes the spread of the coronavirus.”

ECDC: Avian influenza overview February – May 2020

Just another thing to be aware of. ECDC has published Avian influenza overview February – May 2020. The summary:

Between 16 February and 15 May 2020, 290 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) virus outbreaks were reported in Europe in poultry (n=287), captive birds (n=2) and wild birds (n=1) in Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary and Poland and two low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H7N1) virus outbreaks were reported in poultry in Italy.

Vietnam: Number of COVID-19 infections remains at 355 on late June 30

Via VietnamPlus: Number of COVID-19 infections remains at 355 on late June 30.

Hanoi (VNA) – The number of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam stands at 355 as no new infections were reported in the evening of June 30, which is also the 75th straight day without community transmission of the coronavirus in the country.  

Among all infections, 215 are imported cases which were quarantined upon their arrival, according to the national steering committee for COVID-19 prevention and control.  

Up to 335 or 94.4 percent of all patients have recovered while four of the remainders have tested negative for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, once and five others at least twice. 

At present, 9,877 people having close contact with confirmed cases or coming from pandemic-hit areas are under quarantine, including 82 in hospitals, 8,958 in other quarantine facilities, and 837 at home. 

Regarding Patient 91, a British pilot, the treatment sub-committee said his health has continued to improve, and he is undergoing comprehensive functional rehabilitation.  

Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Truong Son said the UK Embassy has sent a request to the sub-committee, asking for the patient to be repatriated on a flight on July 12. 

The sub-committee is planning a meeting this week that will be the sixth national consultation on this patient so as to have a comprehensive review of his health. If he is fit enough for the trip, the Vietnamese side will send medical workers to accompany him on the way home, the official added.

See also this IMF report on Vietnam's success and the relatively mild economic impact on he country.

COVID-19 on June 30: 10,117,687 cases, 502,278 deaths

Six months after the first news about "atypical pneumonia" in Wuhan, a screenshot from the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard:

Fauci, other health officials will testify in Congress about COVID-19

Via The New York Times: Live Coronavirus News Updates: Fauci to Testify. Excerpt:

Four of the top health officials in the United States, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, will testify in Congress on Tuesday about the coronavirus, which is spreading with increasing ferocity in at least 30 states.  

The hearing by the Senate’s health and education committee was framed as an “update on progress toward safely getting back to work and back to school.” But officials will likely grapple with an inverse idea, as a group of states pause or reverse course on plans to reopen.  

The hearing is scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. Eastern, and The New York Times will have live coverage. 

Dr. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, will be joined by Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, the Food and Drug Administration commissioner; and Adm. Brett P. Giroir, the assistant secretary for health. 

All four officials also appeared before House lawmakers last week, when Dr. Redfield warned of a potentially crippling second wave of the virus that would coincide with flu season. 

In an interview on Monday, Dr. Redfield’s deputy, Dr. Anne Schuchat, had an even more grim assessment of the virus: “This is really the beginning,” she told the Journal of the American Medical Association. 

Her comments came not long after Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, played down the spike in cases, saying, “We’re aware that there are embers that need to be put out.” 

Dr. Schuchat also dismissed the idea, promoted earlier this year by President Trump and others, that the heat of summer might slow the infection rate. “In terms of the weather or the season helping us, I don’t think we can count on that,” she said.

With new cases surging in many parts of the country, at least a dozen states and cities are pulling back on reopening plans. 

In Arizona, where case counts are soaring, Gov. Doug Ducey paused operations of bars, gyms, movie theaters and water parks for 30 days and banned indoor and outdoor public events or gatherings of 50 or more people. 

In Florida, where daily case counts reached records over the weekend, the city of Jacksonville said Monday that face masks would be required in any indoor public place where social distancing was not possible. The city is scheduled to host the Republican National Convention in August.  

Case counts have climbed sharply in many of the states that were the first to reopen, including Florida and Texas, which recently forced bars to close again.