H5N1

COVID-19 live updates: US tops 89,000 cases in a single day for the first time ever

Via The Washington Post: Coronavirus live updates: U.S. tops 89,000 coronavirus cases in a single day for the first time ever. Excerpt:

The United States surpassed its record for single-day reported infections of the coronavirus Thursday, counting at least 89,940 cases, and pushing the total number of infections toward 9 million. 

The country also tallied more than 1,000 deaths related to the virus for the second consecutive day. At least 228,000 fatalities have been linked to the virus since February. 

Here are some significant developments: 

• With five days to go before Election Day on Nov. 3, President Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden have crystallized opposing messages on a pandemic that has affected most aspects of American life, including voting. 

• The United States will achieve full economic recovery by early spring, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said, pointing at gross domestic product growth data and the lowering number of initial jobless claims, despite the surge of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations. Kudlow dismissed shutdowns as unnecessary. 

• The U.S. economy grew at a record 7.4 percent in the third quarter, a sharp reversal from its historic second-quarter plunge. Another 751,000 people applied for jobless claims last week, down about 40,000 from the week before. 

• The Department of Health and Human Services’ plans for a $250-million campaign to “defeat despair” in the pandemic were tainted by potential conflicts of interest and government officials’ insistence that the ads reflect well on President Trump, according to documents obtained by House Democrats. 

• WHO’s European regional director, Hans Kluge, estimated Thursday that Europe “is at the epicenter of this pandemic once again,” the Associated Press reported. The continent has now reported more than 10 million coronavirus cases, as several countries have imposed lockdowns this week to address the rampant spread of the virus. 

• As the outbreak in Europe worsens, the Vatican announced Thursday that Pope Francis will return to holding his weekly general audiences online and his in-person Christmas plans will be scaled down, according to AP. 

• Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence said Thursday he tested positive for the coronavirus, meaning the nation’s top-ranked college football team will be without its star quarterback for at least this weekend’s game against Boston College.

City of El Paso COVID-19 Cases: 1,128 new, 2 new deaths

A screenshot from the City of El Paso COVID-19 Cases dashboard:

El Paso seeing 1,128 new COVID-19 cases and more than 14,000 active cases Thursday

This is appalling. Via KDBC: El Paso seeing 1,128 new coronavirus cases and more than 14,000 active cases Thursday. Excerpt:

El Paso’s continued dangerous spike in COVID-19 continues Thursday morning with new numbers reflecting more spikes on the city’s COVID-19 dashboard.  

The El Paso Health departed reported 1,128 new cases Thursday with 486 additional delayed positive test results from the state. 

Active cases have now jumped to 14,359, up 706 from Wednesday. 

Active cases are those who have yet to recover from the virus. 

There are also two new deaths, bringing El Paso’s death toll to 585 since the pandemic began.  

There are 934 people hospitalized, up 26 from Wednesday. There are 245 patients in the intensive care unit, up 22 from Wednesday, according to the dashboard. Currently 114 people are on ventilators. 

Since the start of the pandemic, 29,856 people have recovered from the virus so far.  

City leaders announced that they will be having a press conference Thursday at 1 p.m. to provide an update on the current coronavirus outbreak situation.

COVID-19: Vaccinating Germany could take until 2022, says chief virologist

Via DW: Coronavirus: Vaccinating Germany could take until 2022, says chief virologist. Excerpt:

Despite a global pharmaceutical rush to develop proven coronavirus vaccines, jabs for the 83-million people living in Germany could take until 2022, the chairman of the country's vaccination oversight commission, Thomas Mertens, said on Thursday.  

"Even though vaccines will soon be available, the vaccination of the entire population by the end of 2021 will, in my opinion, not be completed," Mertens told the Funke Media Group.  

Mertens, the head of the 18-member Standing Committee on Vaccination (Stiko) at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany's public health agency for disease control and prevention, also cautioned that it would "take a long time" for a noticeable change in the course of the infection across the entire population to emerge.  

"For example, if you vaccinate 100,000 people a day — and this is a challenge — it would take 150 days to vaccinate 15 million people," said Mertens, explaining the massive effort that will be required to provide vaccinations to everyone in Germany who wants one.  

Who gets the first shots? 

A public prioritization, for vulnerable people, such as the elderly, as suggested recently by German Health Minister Jens Spahn, could lead to wrangles, Mertens added.  

"It could happen that some who do not get an early chance will take legal action," he speculated.

The successful vaccination of Germany's population as a whole would not hinge on whether the campaign started "four weeks earlier or later" but on careful preparation and implementation, he insisted.

Transport and storage of doses would be important factors, Mertens said, as well as "the establishment of regional vaccination centers, simultaneous documentation of vaccinations nationwide, and the evaluation of safety aspects.”  

Good communication, targeted at every age group and people of all levels of education, will be decisive in creating the "greatest possible acceptance" for the distribution of a vaccine, he added.

COVID-19 on Thursday morning: 44,614,050 cases, 1,175,895 deaths

A screenshot from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) dashboard:

India has now joined the 8 Million Club. The dashboard records 530,581 cases yesterday. At that rate, we will be at 45 million by tonight.

Taiwan marks 200 days without domestic Covid-19 infection

Via The Guardian: Taiwan marks 200 days without domestic Covid-19 infection.

Taiwan has reached 200 days without any domestically transmitted cases of Covid-19, underlining its success in keeping the virus under control as cases surge in other parts of the world.  

The country’s Center for Disease Control last reported a domestic case on 12 April. CDC officials thanked the public for playing a role in reaching the milestone, while urging people to continue to wear masks and wash their hands often.  

Taiwan has recorded 553 cases of Covid-19 and just seven deaths since the pandemic began. While it has stopped domestic transmission, it continues to record new cases in people arriving from abroad.  

The country has has been praised for its successful response to the pandemic, especially considering its close business and tourism ties with China, where the virus first emerged late last year. Globally, more than 44 million cases have been reported and 1.1 million deaths. 

Questions remain as to whether Taiwan is truly free of coronavirus. Local media have been paying close attention to reports of people who tested positive after leaving the country. 

Authorities received notice from Japanese and Thai health authorities on Wednesday that three people who had recently left the country tested positive. 

Taiwan’s success has been attributed in part to its swift response to the global outbreak. Officials were checking passengers on flights from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the pandemic began, as early as 31 December for fever and pneumonia symptoms, according to researchers writing in JAMA, a medical journal. 

On 20 January the government formally initiated the Central Epidemic Command Center to coordinate its response between various departments and branches. 

It also communicated effectively the importance of wearing masks, while trying to prevent panic buying and price gouging by rationing them. 

The country was quick to tighten its borders, suspending flights from Wuhan on 23 January and banning the entry of Chinese nationals who resided in the city. Taiwan has a 14-day quarantine for all arrivals, whether Taiwanese or foreign. 

Professionals with technical expertise led the Covid-19 response and messaging, including the former vice-president Chen Chien-jen, who is an epidemiologist.

A time traveller’s look at Canada and COVID-19 from 2022

The Tyee has published my article A Time Traveller’s Look at Canada and COVID from 2022. Excerpt

An American think tank, the Millennium Project, has been in the business of looking at the country’s possible futures since 1996.   

Recently it published Three Futures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States Jan. 1, 2022 — an extensive look at where the U.S. will likely be more than a year from now, and what will lie ahead. 

The report’s three scenarios are based on surveys of recent research plus “real-time Delphi studies.” Experts in fields like public health, politics and economics were asked for their best estimates of what might happen in the next year or so. The results were then shared with participants, giving them a chance to refine their projections based on what the other experts were saying.  

The final results were collated by teams of writers who distilled them into three outcomes. 

1. America Endures: Leaders make a mix of good and bad decisions, there are no big surprises, and the country makes its way through the pandemic with a mix of good and bad outcomes.

2. Depression, Hubris and Discord: A plausible negative scenario based on major bad decisions being taken amid social and political discord. 

3. Things Went Right! A plausible positive scenario, based on good decisions and citizens behaving responsibly. 

To a recovering science fiction writer like me, the scenarios look like interesting but doomed pitches for disaster novels. The COVID-19 pandemic and the other events that have aggravated it are already far beyond the plausibility expected of a science fiction novel.  

The Millennium Project’s implicit premise is a mistaken view of the American status quo, ante Donald Trump.  

The scenarios assume the U.S. had the world’s best health care, a functioning democracy and a “responsible citizenry.” Events since Jan. 20, 2017 have thoroughly disproven those assumptions. 

A substantial minority of Americans are working hard to deprive the majority of affordable health care. Gerrymandering and vote suppression, not to mention billionaires’ big spending on political campaigns, have made American democracy an oxymoron. Even if Joe Biden wins, scores of millions of his irresponsible fellow citizens will remain Trumpists for the rest of their lives.  

I’m not sure any scenario can anticipate where the U.S. might be on New Year’s Day, 2022. But a “Canada Endures” scenario does seem fairly plausible. Our health-care system, for all its problems, is dramatically better than the Americans’. Our democracy is at least less dysfunctional than theirs, with no gerrymandering and our elections run by competent non-partisan federal and provincial agencies. Big money and corporate media have skewed our politics to the right for the past 40 years, but we still have a broader range of acceptable debate than the Americans.

COVID-19 on Wednesday morning: 44,081,789 cases, 1,168,824 deaths

A screenshot from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) dashboard:

India seems likely to join the 8 Million Club today. Worldwide, cases increased by some 465,000 yesterday. At that rate, we could see 45 million cases by Friday.

Winnipeg epidemiologist faces online threats, as concerns about COVID-19 misinformation deepen

Via CTV News: Winnipeg epidemiologist faces online threats, as concerns about COVID-19 misinformation deepen. Excerpt:

Over the past seven months, the effects of COVID-19 have been real and far-reaching in Manitoba, yet some are trying to cast doubt on the pandemic and intimidate the scientists fighting the virus.  

“I think this is a tiny portion of people on social media. But just like an infection, it can just keep spreading,” Epidemiologist Cynthia Carr, founder of EPI Research, told CTV News Tuesday.  

Carr has become a familiar face to many Manitobans. However, her work has made her and her 18-year-old the targets of online threats and harassment.  

“There were all kinds of messages, which were both myth and misinformation as well very personal, very aggressive attacks,” said Carr. “As a parent, I certainly didn’t like seeing those things directed towards my daughter.” 

Carr is not alone. Scientists and public health officials across Canada have faced insults, intimidation, and death threats.  

Last month, B.C.’s top doctor revealed she had to step up security. 

“There are many people who don't like what I do and feel quite able to send me nasty notes, leave phone calls, to harass my office staff,” said Dr. Bonnie Henry. “I've had to have security in my house. I've had death threats.”  

EXPERTS SAY THERE IS ‘MISTRUST IN SCIENCE’  

Experts say the hostility against public health officials is being fueled in part by online conspiracy theories.  

“There is a lot of mistrust of science in the public,” Christen Rachul, University of Manitoba Director of Educational and Faculty Development, told CTV News.  

She is part of a research team examining the rise of online misinformation related to COVID and said it has “exploded” since the emergence of COVID-19. 

“When we start looking at misinformation and people making choices and acting upon misinformation it can actually cause harm. We’ve seen that in a fair amount of cases where people have tried treatments that are potentially harmful.”

Global COVID-19 report: US adds nearly 500,000 cases in a week; Europe faces more lockdowns

Via The Guardian: Global coronavirus report: US adds nearly 500,000 cases in a week; Europe faces more lockdowns. Excerpt:

The United States has added nearly half a million people to its tally of coronavirus infections in the last seven days, as Donald Trump continues to insist the country is “rounding the turn” of the pandemic. 

Nearly 500,000 people have contracted Covid-19 in the United States over the last seven days, as new cases and hospitalizations set records in the Midwest. The seven-day total is 491,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. 

The US has the highest number of infections worldwide, with more than 8.7 million people who have contracted the virus. Its death toll, also the world’s largest, stands at more than 226,000.  

But on Tuesday the White House included among a lists of accomplishments this year “Ending the Covid-19 pandemic”. A news release accompanying a 62-page report from the White House office of science and technology policy includes, among the “highlights” to be found in the report, the phrase “Ending the pandemic”.  

The release, quoted in the Huffington Post, states: “From the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the administration has taken decisive actions to engage scientists and health professionals in academia, industry, and government to understand, treat, and defeat the disease.” 

Trump, facing a tough re-election battle on 3 November, reiterated his claim on Tuesday that the country is “rounding the turn” in the pandemic that has killed more than 226,000 people since erupting in March. 

“We did the ventilators and now we’re doing all of the equipment and now we’re doing vaccines, we’re doing therapeutics. We’ve done a great job, and people are starting to see,” Trump told reporters at the White House. 

Infections are also rising rapidly in several other countries, notably Europe and India. 

France’s prime minister, Jean Castex, told MPs on Tuesday that hospital intensive care units will be saturated with Covid-19 patients by 11 November if nothing is done to stop the epidemic in the country.  

President Emmanuel Macron announced that he would be giving a televised address on Wednesday evening amid reports that his government was considering placing the country under a month-long lockdown to stop the surge in cases. France recorded 33,417 new cases on Tuesday and 523 deaths – the most daily fatalities since April. The UK had its highest total since May. 

Cases and deaths are also spiking in Italy where there were more protests on Tuesday at the government’s latest lockdown measures. 

In Germany, chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to push for a “lockdown light” in crisis talks with regional leaders on Wednesday. 

The proposed new restrictions would include closing restaurants and bars and putting strict limits on private and public gatherings while keeping schools, daycares and shops open, according to the best-selling Bild daily.  

India’s tally of coronavirus cases stood less than 10,000 away from the grim milestone of 8 million, as 43,893 new cases were reported in the last 24 hours, data from the federal health ministry showed.