Via The Los Angeles Times: A new post-Christmas COVID-19 surge as holidays create 'viral wildfire'. Excerpt:
Los Angeles County health officials are warning of a possible surge in COVID-19 cases following family gatherings and out-of-town trips during the holidays, despite pandemic guidelines that asked the public to stay home.
Under one scenario, experts predict there could be a boost in new coronavirus cases by mid-January, a surge in hospitalizations by late January and early February, and another burst of deaths by early to mid-February.
The quick succession of holidays in the fall and winter months typically allows people to celebrate and spend time with loved ones in a brief period.
But that leaves little time for coronavirus cases to start falling before they spike again, creating surges on top of surges.
People may be getting together in small groups to try to be safe because of the COVID-19 surge, but those interactions can still fuel the spread of the virus, said UCLA infectious disease specialist Dr. Tim Brewer.
“I’m very concerned about the next two months,” Brewer said.
Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, a medical epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said a person who is exposed to COVID-19 at a Christmas gathering could be infectious by New Year’s Eve.
However, the individual may be asymptomatic, go to a New Year’s Eve party and unknowingly spread the disease, he said.
Coupled with a high infection rate — about 1 in 95 in Los Angeles County are contagious with the virus, according to county estimates — the holidays are creating a “viral wildfire,” he said.
In Los Angeles County, the pace of daily deaths is higher than ever — with a person dying of the coronavirus about every 10 minutes.
On Saturday, county health officials reported 29,423 new coronavirus cases over Christmas Day and Saturday combined. Friday’s numbers — 15,538 cases — were delayed because of an interruption with Spectrum internet service in the L.A. area.
Local health agencies also reported 136 deaths over the two-day period. The county averaged about 14,000 new coronavirus cases a day and 88 COVID-19 deaths daily over the past week.
