Via the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table: Update on COVID-19 Projections (Presentation). This is a slide presentation; click through to see the complete slide deck in English or French. The key findings:
• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st 198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in longterm care than in wave 1.• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.
