H5N1

As Russia's COVID-19 toll surges, a Siberian hospital struggles to cope

Via Reuters: As Russia's COVID-19 toll surges, a Siberian hospital struggles to cope.

BIYSK, Russia, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The beds at the intensive care unit at this Siberian hospital rarely stay empty for long. Doctors at Hospital No. 2 in the Russian city of Biysk are having to cope with an unprecedented surge of coronavirus patients, many of whom are unvaccinated.  

Doctors at the hospital have to work up to three 24-hour shifts in a row. The work is much harder than during the first wave of the pandemic last year, deputy chief doctor Olga Kaurova said.

"Last year we kept the numbers at 23-24 people. Today we have 65 people in intensive care," Kaurova told Tolk Channel, a local media outlet, on Wednesday. "Most of our patients in the ICU are not vaccinated."  

Younger patients were also being admitted more frequently, she said, citing a recent case of a 19-year-old woman dying. 

With a population of just over 200,000, and located 3,000 km (1,864 miles) southeast of Moscow, Biysk has become a hot spot in the Altai Krai region during a nationwide surge in coronavirus cases and deaths.  

Russia hit a record toll for the fifth successive day on Saturday, with 1,075 deaths, and the country is preparing to go into a nationwide lockdown at the end of the month. 

"There are major difficulties with staff. Some people come and just cannot cope with the enormous workload here," said the hospital's chief doctor, Aleksei Karhaukhov.  

"Those who stay work to their full capacity, without having any mercy on themselves."  

Despite developing its own COVID-19 vaccine early in the pandemic, Russia has vaccinated only about a third of its population, one of the lowest rates in Europe, with citizens citing distrust of the authorities and new medical products.  

Last week, Biysk authorities reported a sharp rise in coronavirus infections. Local media reported that an additional morgue had to be opened and the mayor's office was seeking to extend the territory of the local cemetery.  

The regional authorities in Altai Krai had set a target of vaccinating at least half the 2.2 million population, but so far only 700,000 people have received two doses.  

Inside the hospital, footage this week showed patients lying on beds hooked up to oxygen. One received a back massage from the doctor aimed at preventing further lung damage.  

"It's only when it comes to this point that people start to understand that they should always wear gloves, change masks and keep a 1.5 metre distance even in the street," said one patient, speaking from a hospital bed while wearing an oxygen mask.  

Asked whether he had been vaccinated, he said: "I was not. And I regret I did not get vaccinated."

Russia reports another day of record virus deaths, infections

Via The Moscow Times: Russia Reports Another Day of Record Virus Deaths, Infections.

Russia registered its highest number of daily coronavirus deaths and new cases since the start of the pandemic Friday as authorities across the country scramble to impose partial lockdowns and other restrictions to thwart the spread of the virus in the coming weeks.  

The government’s coronavirus information center reported a double record of 1,064 new fatalities and 37,141 new infections over the past 24 hours.   

Russia has repeatedly broken new all-time highs for Covid-19 deaths over the past month amid stubbornly low vaccination rates. It is currently reporting the second-highest number of daily fatalities in the world after the United States. 

The information center’s official death toll stands at 228,453 — Europe’s highest.  Russia’s total excess fatality count since the start of the pandemic is at least 660,000, according to The Moscow Times’ analysis.  

Russia’s total Covid-19 caseload is the fifth-highest in the world at more than 8.1 million infections.  

President Vladimir Putin has announced a non-working week in Russia from Oct. 30-Nov. 7, authorizing regional leaders to extend the public holidays further if cases do not start to fall.  

In Moscow, the epicenter of Russia’s Covid-19 outbreak, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin ordered a partial citywide lockdown — with most non-essential businesses and services suspended and mass events banned — between Oct. 28-Nov. 7 to stem the spread of the virus.  

The pace of vaccinations in Russia has started to accelerate following a string of regions imposing vaccine mandates for workers in certain sectors of the economy and vaccine passports for entry into indoor venues, according to the Gogov website which tracks vaccine uptake across the country. It estimates Russia is administering more than 300,000 first doses each day — up from around 120,000 a day earlier in October. Only around a third of Russians are fully vaccinated, despite vaccines having been widely available for free since the start of the year.   

Meanwhile, a senior government scientist warned Thursday that geneticists have detected a new and more contagious sub-variant of the Delta strain of the coronavirus, AY.4.2, in isolated cases across the country.

Covid recovery poses dire climate, health risks: Lancet

Via The Times of India, an AFP report: Covid recovery poses dire climate, health risks: Lancet. Excerpt:

PARIS: Countries' fossil-fuel powered Covid-19 recoveries will have long-lasting consequences on human health and risk worsening the food and water insecurity, heatwaves and infectious diseases already threatening billions globally, a major assessment warned Thursday.  

The Lancet Countdown is the largest annual study of the impacts of climate change on human health.  

It found that up to 19 percent of Earth's land mass was affected by extreme drought in 2020 and warned that climate change posed a major threat to food security, which already affects more than two billion people.  

Compared with the historic average, the global population of over-65s lived through 3.1 billion additional extreme heat days last year, it found.  

Populations of 134 countries are now at greater threat from wildfires than at any time previously, and millions of farmers and construction workers are losing income because of the rising number of extremely hot days.  

And climate change is creating ideal conditions for infectious diseases such as dengue fever, Zika virus, cholera and malaria across a far larger span of the globe than just a few decades ago and including Europe, it said.  

"Climate change is here and we're already seeing it damaging human health across the world," said Anthony Costello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown.  

"As the Covid-19 crisis continues, every country is facing some aspect of the climate crisis too."  

The assessment found that the five years with the most areas affected by extreme drought have all occurred since 2015.  

Disruption to the water cycle due to global heating shortens the time in which plants reach maturity, resulting in small yields putting ever-greater stress on food production.  

The Lancet said that yield potential for maize -- a global staple -- had already declined 6 percent compared with 1981-2010 levels.  

Wheat has seen a 3-percent yield potential fall, and rice a 1.8-percent fall, it found.  

And the marine food upon which 3.3. billion people depend on for either sustinence or income is under "increasing threat", with average sea temperature rising in nearly 70 percent of territorial waters compared with just 15 years ago.  

The report also warned that nearly three quarters of countries surveyed said they believed they could not afford an integrated national health and climate strategy.  

"This year we saw people suffering intense heatwaves, deadly floods and wildfires," said lead author Maria Romanello.  

"These are grim warnings that, for every day that we delay our response to climate change, the situation gets more critical.  

"It's time to realise that no one is safe from the effects of climate change."  

In an editorial, the Lancet called on world leaders at the forthcoming COP26 summit to divert some of the trillions they are spending on Covid-19 recovery to reduce inequality and safeguard health.  

"This year's indicators give a bleak outlook: global inequities are increasing, and the direction of travel is worsening in all health outcomes."

Emotional Sask. chief medical health officer pleads with public amid dire new COVID-19 modelling

Via CBC News: Emotional Sask. chief medical health officer pleads with public amid dire new COVID-19 modelling. Excerpt:

The number of Saskatchewan residents infected with COVID-19 and placed under intensive care could more than double by the new year if no additional public health measures are brought in and if people don't change their behaviours in the next few weeks, says the province's chief medical health officer.  

Dr. Saqib Shahab broke down Wednesday during a COVID-19 media teleconference when discussing new modelling, which suggests a potential spike in COVID-19 ICU hospitalizations that would begin in early December and reach its peak in the new year.  

As of Wednesday, there were 82 COVID-19 patients in Saskatchewan's ICUs, plus another 35 people without COVID-19, causing health workers in overburdened hospitals to send six ICU patients to Ontario.  

The modelling — released by the government shortly before the news conference — suggests that even if booster shots are made available to more people, if current behaviour persists, the number of Saskatchewan COVID-19 patients in ICUs could reach well over 200 by Jan. 1.  (Saskatchewan government)  

Other modelling scenarios suggested that, if people reduce their contacts and measures such as private and public gathering limits are reintroduced, the number of COVID-19 ICU hospitalizations could be slowed or even go down from its current, unsustainable level. Saskatchewan normally has 79 available ICU beds in total.   

"What we do individually in terms of getting vaccinated, staying home if you're sick, being very careful around our gatherings, following all the protocols including mask use, can change the trajectory," Shahab said.  

"Our individual and collective behaviour is a key component that is, to some extent, impacted by government orders." "But we've always worked hard and we've pulled together and it's been a divisive time many times," he continued, his voice breaking.  

"In the past, there's [been a] mention that: 'Dr. Shahab just pleads to the public and he doesn't direct an order,' but I have no shame in pleading to the public.  

"We've gone so far. We just have to pull along for the next few weeks or months."

Moscow will go into full lockdown if cases don’t fall - government order

Via The Moscow Times: Moscow Will Go Into Full Lockdown if Cases Don’t Fall - Government Order.

Moscow will go into a strict lockdown if coronavirus infections continue to rise, according to a Moscow government order that was sent to businesses in the city Wednesday. The order, seen by The Moscow Times, would close all non-essential stores, including restaurants, stores, museums and parks as well as suspend planned medical procedures from Oct. 30-Nov. 7.  It would come into effect if the total number of new Covid-19 cases in the capital over the next seven days surpasses the number of infections recorded in the previous week.   

President Vladimir Putin earlier Wednesday approved a non-working week from Oct. 30 to Nov. 7 on Wednesday as Russia’s coronavirus task force reported another daily record of 1,028 Covid-19 deaths over the last 24 hours. 

 Free travel on the city’s public transport network for elderly citizens and other groups would also be suspended.  

The measures, named a “short-term lockdown” in the document, would amount to Russia’s strictest coronavirus restrictions since spring last year. The Kremlin and Moscow authorities have previously rejected lockdown measures — which are unpopular among the Russian public — even as cases spiraled.  

Forbes Russia earlier reported that the city officials were mulling closing restaurants, bars, museums, hairdressers and other non-essential businesses to help stem the spread of the virus.

Latvia records highest Covid-19 incidence in the world - CDC

Via The Baltic Times: Latvia records highest Covid-19 incidence in the world - CDC.

RIGA - The number of new Covid-19 cases confirmed in Latvia last week, from October 11 to 17, increased by 48.8 percent from the week before, the Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) informed.   

According to the CDC, Latvia's Covid-19 incidence is currently the highest in the world. Meanwhile, hospital admissions grew 56 percent last week, while the number of severe Covid-19 cases jumped 62.8 percent.   

Of the Covid-19 tests carried out last week, 40,781 tests, or 32 percent, were performed as part of mass screenings in schools, and 85,768 tests, or 68 percent, were carried out in the rest of the population. Testing in schools revealed 2,121 cases, or 15 percent, while 12,219 cases, or 85 percent, were detected among the general population. More than half of the infected people diagnosed during the mass screening, or 65 percent, had Covid-19 symptoms.  

The average daily number of Covid-19 tests rose to 18,078 last week from 16,176 tests the week before, while the average daily number of confirmed infections grew to 2,049 from 673.  

Latvia's Covid-19 reproduction number rose to 1.28 from 1.33 the week before, suggesting of an accelerating spread of the virus.  

Unvaccinated or partly vaccinated people accounted for 11,321, or 79 percent, of last week's Covid-19 cases, while 3,020 people, or 21 percent of all cases, had been vaccinated. Compared to vaccinated people, unvaccinated persons are 3 times more likely to catch the infection, statistics show.  

Meanwhile, Europe's average cumulative 14-day Covid-19 incidence per 100,000 population slightly increased, from 160.6 cases the week before to 166.1 cases last week. In Latvia, the incidence rate has grown from 580.9 cases to 864.4 per 100,000 population.

Russia reports new record high coronavirus deaths

Via The Moscow Times: Russia Reports New Record High Coronavirus Deaths.

Russia set another new record for daily coronavirus fatalities Tuesday, as regions across the country continue to roll out new measures to boost low vaccination rates.  

The government’s coronavirus task force reported an all-time high of 1,015 Covid-19 fatalities over the last 24 hours — up from the previous record of 1,002 set over the weekend.  

Russia is currently reporting more deaths than every country in the world except the U.S.  

An aggressive fourth wave of the coronavirus has hit the country hard, and with under one in three Russians fully-vaccinated, hospitals face being overloaded with an influx of patients.  

Government officials, including President Vladimir Putin have become increasingly frustrated at Russians’ low uptake of the vaccine in recent weeks, as the country’s top coronavirus doctor, Denis Protsenko, said the country faces a “near-critical” situation with winter approaching.  

The Kremlin admitted Tuesday that its efforts to convince Russians to get vaccinated “had flaws,” but added that citizens themselves “have to be more responsible.”   

“The state always feels and knows its share of responsibility,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday. “And of course, not everything that needed to be done was done in terms of an information campaign on the lack of alternatives and the importance of vaccination.”

“At the same time, every citizen needs to be more responsible,”  he added.   

Peskov also dismissed the idea that Russians' vaccine hesitancy was related to the lack of foreign-made jabs in the country.  

St. Petersburg, Russia’s second largest city of some five million residents, became the latest region to announce the rollout of vaccine passports for entry into crowded places on Monday in a desperate attempt to encourage Russians to get vaccinated. Independent polls show half the country’s citizens do not plan to take a vaccine against the coronavirus — a figure which has not changed significantly since the start of a nationwide vaccination campaign at the end of 2020.  

Other regions have rolled out mandatory vaccination requirements for workers in key parts of the economy, such as the public sector, hospitality and retail.  

But in the pandemic’s epicenter of Moscow, there are few restrictions in place, and the Kremlin has ruled out a nationwide lockdown.  

The country reported 33,740 new coronavirus infections Tuesday, with the virus gaining ground in almost every part of the country.  

Russia’s official death toll from the pandemic stands at 225,325 — Europe’s highest. The country has been accused of downplaying the virus, and excess deaths since the start of the pandemic are at least 660,000, according to The Moscow Times’ analysis of official statistics.

Vaccines, masks? Japan puzzling over sudden virus success

Via The Associated Press: Vaccines, masks? Japan puzzling over sudden virus success. Excerpt:

TOKYO (AP) — Almost overnight, Japan has become a stunning, and somewhat mysterious, coronavirus success story.  

Daily new COVID-19 cases have plummeted from a mid-August peak of nearly 6,000 in Tokyo, with caseloads in the densely populated capital now routinely below 100, an 11-month low.         

The bars are packed, the trains are crowded, and the mood is celebratory, despite a general bafflement over what, exactly, is behind the sharp drop.  

Japan, unlike other places in Europe and Asia, has never had anything close to a lockdown, just a series of relatively toothless states of emergency.  

Some possible factors in Japan’s success include a belated but remarkably rapid vaccination campaign, an emptying out of many nightlife areas as fears spread during the recent surge in cases, a widespread practice, well before the pandemic, of wearing masks and bad weather in late August that kept people home.  

But with vaccine efficacy gradually waning and winter approaching, experts worry that without knowing what exactly why cases have dropped so drastically, Japan could face another wave like this summer, when hospitals overflowed with serious cases and deaths soared — though the numbers were lower than pre-vaccination levels. 

Many credit the vaccination campaign, especially among younger people, for bringing infections down. Nearly 70 percent of the population is fully vaccinated.  

“Rapid and intensive vaccinations in Japan among those younger than 64 might have created a temporary condition similar to herd-immunity,” said Dr. Kazuhiro Tateda, a Toho University professor of virology.

Russia's official coronavirus count faces questions amid 'fourth wave' surge

I've been waiting for an analysis like this one, and it's about time. Via The Washington Post: Russia's official coronavirus count faces questions amid 'fourth wave' surge. Excerpt:

MOSCOW — Unshaven and puffy faced, with tubes in his nose, a patient in a hospital's coronavirus "red zone" recorded a desperate message for Russians.  

“I turned my life and my health into a disaster,” said Innokenty Sheremet, 55, who is from the Ural Mountain region city of Yekaterinburg and came down with covid-19 after forgoing vaccination.  

“I turned into an infirm old man,” he continued, describing “terrible pain from any movement.” Many employees at his TV news agency also became infected. Sheremet survived, but his news service collapsed.  

In Russia, a “fourth wave” of coronavirus is setting records in daily infection and death numbers, according to official statistics.  

But the truth is far worse, say independent demographers and data analysts who are challenging the pandemic data issued by President Vladimir Putin’s government and who, in turn, are facing retribution from authorities. At least three top researchers have been dismissed or have resigned from their posts in government or at state universities amid pressure from bosses.  

Russia’s official statistics showed 221,313 pandemic-related deaths by mid-October, but the independent demographer Alexey Raksha calculated that excess mortality — seen by analysts as the most reliable indicator of coronavirus deaths — has reached around 750,000. Raksha’s calculation used figures maintained by Rosstat, Russia’s statistical agency. Meanwhile, a report in the Moscow Times estimated the figure at about 660,000.   

Russian independent analysts say officials manipulated statistics and underplayed the crisis, most likely for political reasons — claims that have been made about governments in other countries, including China and Turkey. Critics alleging data manipulation by governments say the practice is an obstacle to a full global reckoning of the pandemic’s reach.  

The Russian Ministry of Health and Rospotrebnadzor, the government agency that publishes daily coronavirus numbers, did not respond to requests for comment on allegations of low counts. Russian official statistics exclude many deaths of patients with the coronavirus where doctors judge another major factor was to blame, such as heart failure.  

“The data for [Russia] is absolutely unreliable,” said Alexei Kouprianov, an independent analyst and biologist who last year organized a community of experts on social media, Watching Covid. He was fired from the St. Petersburg campus of the Higher School of Economics in September 2020.  

As Putin’s government tightens political control in the country, the handling of the pandemic has largely been left to the regions. The pandemic has exposed fragilities in a system in which regional officials conceal problems for fear of losing their posts and critics — even analytical experts — are sidelined.

Before the pandemic, life expectancy in Russia was 73 years, whereas it was 84 in countries including Australia, Italy and Spain, and its spending on health care was 5.6 percent of GDP compared with 16.8 percent in the United States and more than 10 percent in Japan and much of Europe, according the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Russian authorities say their handling of the pandemic has been better than the performance of many Western countries. But with 43 million Russians fully vaccinated by Oct. 14, according to the Health Ministry, about 30 percent of the 144.4 million population, Russia’s vaccination rate is one of the world’s lowest, according to data from the Britain-based Global Change Data Lab. Russia’s rate compares with 56 percent in the United States, 65 percent in Britain and 72 percent in Canada.

Recently, official Russian rhetoric has shifted. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Oct. 11 that mortality rates were high because of the “unacceptably low level of vaccination,” adding that “all conditions have been provided to citizens to save their lives by getting inoculated.”

Since Russian parliamentary elections last month, officials and state media have amplified warnings about the dangers of the coronavirus. The daily coronavirus death toll hit a record 1,002 on Friday, and the country surpassed 33,000 daily infection cases, according to state-approved figures.

“Actually, excess mortality now is more than 2,000 people each day on average,” claimed the demographer Raksha, who was fired by the official statistical agency Rosstat last year for exposing alleged undercounting of daily deaths by the reporting agency Rospotrebnadzor.

“Hospitals are overloaded,” said Andrei Konoval, the head of the independent Union of Medical Workers. Ambulance drivers were ordered to work 24-hours shifts in Yekaterinburg, the independent Znak media reported. Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko on Thursday called on retired doctors to return to work.

COVID-19 numbers in Brazil continue to drop

The CONASS PANEL | COVID-19 dashboard has the numbers for epidemiological week 41, and they're encouraging:

Not only are the numbers low for today, but the weekly case and mortality counts are lower than they've been in many months: 71,545 cases 2,323 deaths. 

 

The last time Brazil saw fewer cases was in week 19 of 2020. And the last time so few died of COVID-19 was in week 17 of 2020, with 1,669.