Via Nature: The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts. Excerpt:
Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic.
Working out how many more is a complex research challenge. It is not as simple as just counting up each country’s excess mortality figures. Some official data in this regard are flawed, scientists have found. And more than 100 countries do not collect reliable statistics on expected or actual deaths at all, or do not release them in a timely manner.
Demographers, data scientists and public-health experts are striving to narrow the uncertainties for a global estimate of pandemic deaths. These efforts, from both academics and journalists, use methods ranging from satellite images of cemeteries to door-to-door surveys and machine-learning computer models that try to extrapolate global estimates from available data.
Among these models, the World Health Organization (WHO) is still working on its first global estimate, but the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, Washington, offers daily updates of its own modelled results, as well as projections of how quickly the global toll might rise. And one of the highest-profile attempts to model a global estimate has come from the news media. The Economist magazine in London has used a machine-learning approach to produce an estimate of 12 million to 22 million excess deaths — or between 2 and 4 times the pandemic’s official toll so far (see go.nature.com/3qjtyge and ‘Global toll’).
The uncertainty in this estimate is a discrepancy the size the population of Sweden. “The only fair thing to present at this point is a very wide range,” says Sondre Ulvund Solstad, a data scientist who leads The Economist’s modelling work. “But as more data come in, we are able to narrow it.”
The scramble to calculate a global death toll while the pandemic continues is an exercise that combines sophisticated statistical modelling with rapid-fire data gathering. Everyone involved knows any answer they provide will be provisional and imprecise. But they feel it is important to try. They want to acknowledge the true size and cost of the human tragedy of COVID-19, and they hope to counter misleading claims prompted by official figures, such as China’s count of just under 5,000 COVID-19 deaths.
