An editorial in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine: Future pandemics: failing to prepare means preparing to fail.
Governments of high-income countries with high SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rates have been encouraged by evidence of decreasing COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality, and can begin to think about the change from pandemic to endemic and the prevention of future pandemics. Meanwhile, some low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are still grappling with high numbers of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths, and low vaccination rates.
A similar pattern has been seen with previous pandemics, including HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Although these diseases kill millions of people globally every year, they are often referred to as endemic. As stated by Prof Ali Zumla in a recent Perspectives article, “The pandemic exposes weaknesses of current leadership of global public health systems, inequities of resource allocation to Africa, and broken promises by wealthier nations for vaccine equity and resource allocation. This status quo is unacceptable.”
Rather than allowing a splintering of attention and resources across the COVID-19 pandemic, other current pandemics, and future threats, we should move towards an integrated, multipronged approach that targets these threats collectively. We must learn from the way in which different countries responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and build on successful approaches to ensure equitable pandemic preparedness in the future. Tackling a pandemic requires a global response. Individual countries need to prepare, but success will be hindered if some countries are left without the capacity to respond to a new threat.
An analysis in the BMJ examined 28 national responses in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries that were considered to be high performing were able to “partner, coordinate, develop, and strengthen” various public health, health-care system, and socioeconomic measures. Ultimately, these actions led to decreased disease transmission and lower mortality rates. Government cooperation, effective community engagement, and coordination across all levels of response led to successful procurement of resources and transformation from evidence-based policy to practice.
A recent Global Burden of Disease study also found that measures of trust in government, and less government corruption, were associated with lower infection rates and higher SARS-CoV-2 vaccination coverage in middle-income and high-income countries. Therefore, efforts to improve communication surrounding risk of disease and community engagement strategies could help to boost public confidence in pandemic response strategies.
Low-performing countries identified in the BMJ analysis had four common themes: devaluation of effective pandemic preparedness plans through inadequate infrastructure and underfunded health systems; denial from heads of state of scientific evidence that COVID-19 was a severe risk to health, and lack of support for those most vulnerable to economic risks of COVID-19; delays in enacting rapid responses to different stages of the pandemic despite supporting evidence; and finally, distrust between the public, government leaders, and the scientific research community. Unfortunately, these factors have been compounded by the politicisation of many actions, including the use of facemasks and vaccines.
At present, many countries are severely underprepared to enact any plans for future pandemic prevention or response. They face numerous challenges in providing universal health coverage for citizens and are not able to allocate adequate investment or resources towards, for example, an increased workforce equipped to deal with current or future pandemics.
The Global Fund is actively involved in pandemic preparedness and response with their COVID-19 Response Mechanism (C19RM), which provides grant support to LMICs for COVID-19 tests, treatments, personal protective equipment, and critical elements of health system strengthening. C19RM aims to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on programmes to fight HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria, and initiates urgent improvements in health and community systems; as of Jan 25, 2022, total funds approved to support C19RM reached US$4·1 billion, made available through support from donors in the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. The hope is that funding will not be diverted from current pandemic action and that separate income will be generated for future threats.
Increased investment in COVID-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines has been extraordinary. To fully prepare for future pandemics, investment in mechanisms to prevent, detect, and respond to emerging pathogens is crucial.
