Via Airfinity: Airfinity’s COVID-19 forecast for China infections and deaths. Excerpt:
Daily Infections: 1.8 million
Daily deaths: 11,000
Cumulative cases since 1st December: 20.4 million
Cumulative deaths since 1st December: 110,000
Data last updated on 30th December 2022
Airfinity is forecasting COVID-19 infections to reach their first peak in China on the 13th January with 3.7 million cases a day.
Deaths are estimated to peak 10 days later at approximately 25,000 a day, by that stage a total of 584,000 since the virus began surging across the country in December. We predict 1.7 million deaths across China by the end of April 2023.
Airfinity’s model is based on data from China’s regional provinces, before changes to reporting infections were implemented, combined with case growth rates from other former COVID-zero countries when they lifted restrictions such as Hong Kong and Japan.
Using the trends in regional data our team of epidemiologists has forecast the first peak to be in regions where cases are currently rising and a second peak driven by later surges in other Chinese provinces.
Airfinity predicts cases in Beijing are likely to have peaked by now, with hospitalisations and deaths likely to peak in the next 1-2 weeks.
Our model estimates a second peak will occur on the 3rd March 2023 where daily cases are likely to reach 4.2 million a day. It is expected that rural areas with be more impacted in this later wave.
