H5N1

WHO meets with Chinese officials on current COVID-19 situation

A statement by WHO: WHO meets with Chinese officials on current COVID-19 situation. Evidently WHO has run out of praise for China's response:

A high-level meeting took place on 30 December between WHO and China about the current surge in COVID-19 cases, to seek further information on the situation, and to offer WHO's expertise and further support.  

High-level officials from China's National Health Commission and the National Disease Control and Prevention Administration briefed WHO on China's evolving strategy and actions in the areas of epidemiology, monitoring of variants, vaccination, clinical care, communication and R&D.   

WHO again asked for regular sharing of specific and real-time data on the epidemiological situation — including more genetic sequencing data, data on disease impact including hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths — and data on vaccinations delivered and vaccination status, especially in vulnerable people and those over 60 years old.  WHO reiterated the importance of vaccination and boosters to protect against severe disease and death for people at higher risk.    

WHO called on China to strengthen viral sequencing, clinical management and impact assessment, and expressed willingness to provide support on these areas, as well as on risk communications on vaccination to counter hesitancy. Chinese scientists are invited to engage more closely in WHO-led COVID-19 expert networks including the COVID-19 clinical management network. WHO has invited Chinese scientists to present detailed data on viral sequencing at a meeting of the Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution on 3 January.  

WHO stressed the importance of monitoring and the timely publication of data to help China and the global community to formulate accurate risk assessments and to inform effective responses.

Airfinity’s COVID-19 forecast for China infections and deaths

Via Airfinity: Airfinity’s COVID-19 forecast for China infections and deaths. Excerpt:

Daily Infections: 1.8 million  

Daily deaths: 11,000  

Cumulative cases since 1st December: 20.4 million  

Cumulative deaths since 1st December: 110,000  

Data last updated on 30th December 2022  

Airfinity is forecasting COVID-19 infections to reach their first peak in China on the 13th January with 3.7 million cases a day.  

Deaths are estimated to peak 10 days later at approximately 25,000 a day, by that stage a total of 584,000 since the virus began surging across the country in December. We predict 1.7 million deaths across China by the end of April 2023.  

Airfinity’s model is based on data from China’s regional provinces, before changes to reporting infections were implemented, combined with case growth rates from other former COVID-zero countries when they lifted restrictions such as Hong Kong and Japan.  

Using the trends in regional data our team of epidemiologists has forecast the first peak to be in regions where cases are currently rising and a second peak driven by later surges in other Chinese provinces.  

Airfinity predicts cases in Beijing are likely to have peaked by now, with hospitalisations and deaths likely to peak in the next 1-2 weeks.  

Our model estimates a second peak will occur on the 3rd March 2023 where daily cases are likely to reach 4.2 million a day. It is expected that rural areas with be more impacted in this later wave.

China Covid: Experts estimate 9,000 deaths a day as US says it may sample wastewater from planes

Via The Guardian: China Covid: experts estimate 9,000 deaths a day as US says it may sample wastewater from planes. Excerpt:

The United States is considering sampling wastewater taken from international aircraft to track any emerging new Covid-19 variants as infections surge in China, as UK-based health experts estimate about 9,000 people a days are now dying of the disease in China.  

The proposed of testing wastewater by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would provide a better solution to tracking the virus and slowing its entry into the US than new travel restrictions announced this week, three infectious disease experts said.  

The US and a number of other countries have said travellers from China will require mandatory negative Covid tests.   

Their comments came as UK-based health data firm Airfinity said about 9,000 people in China were probably dying each day from Covid, nearly doubling its estimate from a week ago.

Covid infections started to sweep across China in November, picking up pace this month after Beijing dismantled its zero-Covid policies including regular PCR testing on its population and publication of data on asymptomatic cases.  

Cumulative deaths in China since 1 December likely reached 100,000, with infections totalling 18.6m, Airfinity said in a statement on Thursday. It used modelling based on data from Chinese provinces before the recent changes to reporting cases were implemented, it said.  

Airfinity expects China’s Covid infections to reach their first peak on 13 January with 3.7m cases a day.  

Their figures were in contrast to the several thousands of cases reported by Chinese health authorities a day, after a nationwide network of PCR test sites was largely dismantled and authorities pivoted from preventing infections to treating them.  

The European Union’s health agency said on Thursday it believed the EU-wide introduction of mandatory Covid screenings for travellers from China was currently “unjustified”, pointing to the “higher population immunity in the EU/EEA, as well as the prior emergence and subsequent replacement of variants currently circulating in China”.  

But in a series of tweets, the World Health Organization chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, renewed his appeal to China to be more forthcoming with detailed data on the pandemic situation in the country.  

“In the absence of comprehensive information from China, it is understandable that countries around the world are acting in ways that they believe may protect their populations,” Tedros wrote.

Some hospitals in China overwhelmed in national COVID-19 wave

Via CBC News, an AP report: Some hospitals in China overwhelmed in national COVID-19 wave. Excerpt:

Yao Ruyan paced frantically outside the fever clinic of a county hospital in China's industrial Hebei province, 70 kilometres southwest of Beijing. Her mother-in-law had COVID-19 and needed urgent medical care, but all nearby hospitals were full.  

"They say there's no beds here," she barked into her phone.  

As China grapples with its first national COVID-19 wave, emergency wards in small cities and towns southwest of Beijing are overwhelmed. Emergency rooms are turning away ambulances, relatives of sick people are searching for open beds, and patients are slumped on benches in hospital corridors and lying on floors for a lack of beds.  

Yao's elderly mother-in-law had fallen ill a week ago with the coronavirus. They went first to a local hospital, where lung scans showed signs of pneumonia. But the hospital couldn't handle serious COVID-19 cases, Yao was told. She was told to go to larger hospitals in adjacent counties.  

As Yao and her husband drove from hospital to hospital, they found all the wards were full. Zhuozhou Hospital, an hour's drive from Yao's hometown, was the latest disappointment.  

Yao charged toward the check-in counter, past wheelchairs frantically moving elderly patients. Yet again, she was told the hospital was full, and that she would have to wait. 

'Terrified' over elderly woman's condition  

"I'm furious," Yao said, tearing up as she clutched the lung scans from the local hospital. "I don't have much hope. We've been out for a long time and I'm terrified because she's having difficulty breathing."  

Over two days, Associated Press journalists visited five hospitals and two crematoriums in towns and small cities in Baoding and Langfang prefectures, in central Hebei province. The area was the epicentre of one of China's first outbreaks after the state loosened COVID-19 controls in November and December. For weeks, the region went quiet, as people fell ill and stayed home.  

Many have now recovered. Today, markets are bustling, diners pack restaurants and cars are honking in snarling traffic, even as the virus is spreading in other parts of China. In recent days, headlines in state media said the area is "starting to resume normal life."  

But life in central Hebei's emergency wards and crematoriums is anything but normal. Even as the young go back to work and lines at fever clinics shrink, many of Hebei's elderly are falling into critical condition. As they overrun intensive care units and funeral homes, it could be a harbinger of what's to come for the rest of China.