H5N1

CDC: Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2022

Via MMWR: Provisional Mortality Data — United States, 2022. The summary:

Summary  

What is already known about this topic?  

More than 3.2 million persons died in the United States during January–December 2022.  

What is added by this report?  

The overall age-adjusted U.S. death rate decreased by 5.3% from 2021 to 2022. Overall death rates and COVID-19–associated death rates were highest among non-Hispanic Black or African American persons and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons.  

What are the implications for public health practice?  

Provisional death estimates provide an early signal about shifts in mortality trends. Timely and actionable data can guide public health policies and interventions for populations experiencing higher mortality.

WHO: "It is time to transition to long-term management of the COVID-19 pandemic"

From the World Health Organization: Statement on the fifteenth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Excerpt, with WHO's bolding:

The WHO Director-General has the pleasure of transmitting the Report of the fifteenth meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) Emergency Committee regarding the coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic, held on Thursday 4 May 2023, from 12:00 to 17:00 CET.  

During the deliberative session, the Committee members highlighted the decreasing trend in COVID-19  deaths, the decline in COVID-19 related hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions, and the high levels of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2. The Committee’s position has been evolving over the last several months. While acknowledging the remaining uncertainties posted by potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2, they advised that it is time to transition to long-term management of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

The WHO Director-General concurs with the advice offered by the Committee regarding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. He determines that COVID-19 is now an established and ongoing health issue which no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).  

The WHO Director-General considered the advice provided by the Committee regarding the proposed Temporary Recommendations and issued them as per the below statement. The WHO Director-General will convene an IHR Review Committee to advise on Standing Recommendations for the long-term management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, taking into account the 2023-2025 COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan.  

During this transition, States Parties are advised to continue following the issued Temporary Recommendations. The Director-General expressed his sincere gratitude to the Chair, the Members, and the Advisors of the Committee for their engagement and advice during the last three years.

COVID's future: Mini-waves rather than seasonal surges

Via Nature: COVID's future: mini-waves rather than seasonal surges. Excerpt:

Whether you call it a surge, a spike, a wave or perhaps just a wavelet, there are signs of a rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections — again. A growing proportion of tests in some countries are coming back positive, and new variants, most notably a lineage called XBB.1.16, are pushing aside older strains, fuelling some of the uptick in cases.  

Welcome to the new normal: the ‘wavelet’ era. Scientists say that explosive, hospital-filling COVID-19 waves are unlikely to return. Instead, countries are starting to see frequent, less deadly waves, characterized by relatively high levels of mostly mild infections and sparked by the relentless churn of new variants.

Wavelets don’t always create a dramatic spike in hospitalizations and deaths; their effects on health vary between countries. But the relentless series of wavelets looks very different from the slower, annual circulation patterns of influenza and cold-causing coronaviruses, and it seems increasingly unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 will settle into a flu-like rhythm anytime soon, say scientists.  

“We haven’t slowed down in the last year, and I don’t see what factors would cause it do so at this point,” says Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle, Washington. “It will be a continually circulating respiratory disease. It may be less seasonal than things we’re used to.”  

Victorious variant  

In March, scientists in India started seeing signs that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant was causing a rise in infections. The XBB.1.16 lineage has displaced others that drove case surges in India several months ago, says Rajesh Karyakarte, a microbiologist at Byramjee Jeejeebhoy Government Medical College in Pune, India. “We see that it has almost replaced all other variants in India, and we think the same thing will be followed everywhere.” 

In a study posted to the medRxiv.org preprint server, Karyakarte and his colleagues analysed more than 300 cases, from last December to early this month, and found that XBB.1.16 infections tend to cause mild symptoms similar to those from earlier Omicron variants, with few hospitalizations and deaths. “We didn’t see much,” Karyakarte says. The study has not yet been peer reviewed.

The World Health Organization declared XBB.1.16 a ‘variant of interest’ on 17 April. But whether it or another new variant will cause a spike in infections in a particular country will probably depend on the size and timing of the country’s earlier waves, says Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.