H5N1

COVID-19 on Monday evening: 202,545 new cases, 4,134 new deaths

Two screenshots taken about 7:15 p.m. Pacific time: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard.

Outlook worsens in much of the US as July begins with a crush of COVID-19 cases

Via The New York Times: Live Coronavirus Updates: Global Tracker.Excerpt:

July in America is off to a miserable start. 

Over the month’s first five days, the United States reported its three largest daily case totals. Fourteen states recorded single-day highs. In all, more than 250,000 new cases were announced nationwide, the equivalent of every person in Reno catching the virus in less than a week. 

“The situation is that we are experiencing rampant community spread,” said Clay Jenkins, the top elected official in Dallas County, Texas, where more than 2,000 new cases were announced over the weekend. Mr. Jenkins pleaded with residents to “move from selfishness to sacrifice” and wear a mask in public.  

Across much of the country, the outlook was worsening quickly.  

On Sunday, Texas and Florida both surpassed 200,000 total cases. In Mississippi, where nearly every county has reported an uptick in cases, the speaker of the State House of Representatives was among several lawmakers to test positive. And in Starr County, Texas, along the Mexican border, cases were being identified by the hundreds and hospitals were running out of room.  

“The local and valley hospitals are at full capacity and have no more beds available,” Eloy Vera, the top official in Starr County, said in a Facebook post. “I urge all of our residents to please shelter-in-place, wear face coverings, practice social distancing and AVOID GATHERINGS.”  

New case clusters emerged as people resumed their pre-pandemic routines. At least 16 infections were linked to a church in San Antonio. Ninety-five people tested positive at a housing facility for farmworkers in Oxnard, Calif. In Missouri, a summer camp shut down after more than 40 people, including campers and employees, tested positive. 

But the move toward reopening continues. Some federal workers are heading back to their offices in the Washington, D.C. area, where confirmed infections have held steady or declined.  

At the Energy Department’s headquarters, 20 percent of employees — possibly as many as 600 — have been authorized to return. The Interior Department said in a statement that it anticipated about 1,000 workers to soon return daily to its main office near the White House. The Defense Department has authorized up to 80 percent of its work force to return to office spaces, which could result in up to 18,000 employees inside the Pentagon, according to a spokeswoman. Many of them are already there.

Vietnam records 14 more imported COVID-19 cases

Via VietnamPlus: Vietnam records 14 more imported COVID-19 cases. The British pilot known as "Case 91" has now recovered; at one point he was the country's sole patient who seemed likely to die.

Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam on July 6 evening confirmed 14 more cases positive for the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and all of them are imported and quarantined upon arrival, according to the National Steering Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control. 

The new patients, including 12 males and two females, returned home from Bangladesh via Van Don airport in the northern province of Quang Ninh on July 3 and were immediately put into quarantine at a military camp in Bim Son town, the central province of Thanh Hoa. 

At present, they are being treated at the National Hospital for Tropical Diseases No. 2 in Dong Anh, Hanoi. 

By 6pm on July 6, Vietnam recorded a total of 369 COVID-19 infections, including 229 imported ones. The country has gone through 81 consecutive days without local transmissions.  

On the same day, two patients were declared fully recovered, raising the total recoveries to 342 or 92.7 percent. They are Patient 239, who is a 22-year-old Vietnamese man, and Patient 91, the British pilot. 

Currently 12,291 people who had contact with COVID-19 patients and returned home from pandemic-hit areas are being quarantined either at hospitals, concentrated establishments or at home.

WHO: 176,605 new COVID-19 cases, 3,602 deaths

Two screenshots from the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard:

COVID-19: What makes a 'wave' of disease? An epidemiologist explains

Via The Conversation, Dr. Abram L. Wagner, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, writes: What makes a 'wave' of disease? An epidemiologist explains.

Panic about a second wave of coronavirus cases is “overblown,” Vice President Mike Pence wrote in June, implying the U.S. has COVID-19 under control. On the other hand, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warns that the U.S. is still firmly within a first wave of cases.  

As media broadcast information about daily increases in the number of cases, it’s hard not to wonder which way the country is headed. Have the weeks and months of lockdown really helped? What do the trends in diagnoses and deaths mean for the course of the pandemic? Is the U.S. stuck in a first wave? Through the worst of it? Headed for a second round? 

Six months into the pandemic, people are looking for ways to make sense of what’s happening. Talking about waves of disease, with the implication of predictable rises and falls, is part of that. As an epidemiologist, I know that disease waves aren’t scientifically defined. But looking to the history of previous epidemics and other countries’ current COVID-19 outbreaks can be useful. 

Characterizing a wave 

There’s no strict definition for what is or is not an epidemic wave or phase. A wave implies a rising number of sick individuals, a defined peak, and then a decline. The word “wave” implies a natural pattern of peaks and valleys; it hints that even during a lull, future outbreaks of disease are possible. 

Historical outbreaks of infectious diseases offer some models for how the course of a disease like COVID-19 might unfold over time.  

Some diseases come in somewhat predictable seasonal waves, with higher transmission rates at some times of the year than at others. Seasonal coronaviruses, like 229E or HKU1, which cause the common cold, have a high point from around December through March, according to research in the U.S. and elsewhere. 

Several factors influence whether a particular disease is seasonal in nature. Some pathogens may spread less well with greater humidity. Annual epidemics, like of influenza may occur because of climate or patterns of social mixing – often driven by the school year or people staying inside more during the winter.  

It’s possible that SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, spreads more efficiently under certain weather conditions. But recent outbreaks in Florida, Arizona, Texas and Southern California suggest that warm or humid weather is not sufficient to stop the spread of the disease. Some scientists model that SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become seasonal like other coronaviruses. 

Waves and seasonal dynamics are also affected by levels of immunity in the human population. As more individuals become immune to a pathogen, its spread slows and eventually stops as the virus runs out of new people to infect. The U.S. is nowhere near what epidemiologists call herd immunity in the general population, however; mathematical modelers suggest at least between 43% and 60% of people would need to be immune to SARS-CoV-2 for that to be the case.

Ebola in DRC: No new cases, one death

CMRE has published Ebola: Situation épidémiologique du 04 juillet 2020. Excerpt from the Google translation:

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION IN THE PROVINCE OF EQUATEUR ON JULY 03, 2020 

Saturday, July 04, 2020    

• Since the start of the epidemic declared on June 01, 2020, the cumulative number of cases has been 36, including 33 confirmed and 3 probable. In total, there were 15 deaths (12 confirmed and 3 probable) and 3 winners (a healed or surviving person); 

• No new confirmed cases;  

• 1 new death from confirmed cases at Wangata in Losanganya; 

• No one came out cured. 

 

 /! \ The data presented in this table are likely to change later, after in-depth investigations and after redistribution of cases and deaths in their respective health zones.

VACCINATION  

• Since the start of vaccination on June 05, 2020, 8,139 people have been vaccinated with the rVSV-ZEBOV-GP vaccine until July 02, 2020.

California COVID-19 cases: Tracking the outbreak

Via The Los Angeles Times: California coronavirus cases: Tracking the outbreak. The screenshot is from this report. Excerpt:

The coronavirus pandemic has spread rapidly across California. Experts say the true number of people infected is unknown and likely much higher than official tallies.  

To better understand the spread of the virus, The Times is conducting an independent, continual survey of dozens of local health agencies across the state. So far today, seven of the 61 agencies we’re monitoring have reported new numbers.  

Expect low totals over the holiday weekend. Several counties, including Los Angeles County, have said they won't be reporting new cases until Monday.  

What we know 

• Cases are increasing. Records have been shattered in recent days with 25 counties failing to meet the governor's standard for containing new cases. 

• Hospitalizations are creeping up. Patient counts are climbing in 15 counties, threatening a goal of the stay-at-home policies. 

• Testing has increased. Over the last seven days, about 103,000 tests have been conducted per day, exceeding the governor’s goal. 

• The reopening is rolling back. With cases increasing, some areas have have returned to stricter lockdowns and masks are required across the state.. 

• The highest toll is among seniors. Roughly 78% of the dead were 65 or older. At least 3,086 were living at a nursing home. 

• California's totals still sit far below New York, where more than 32,100 people have died.

COVID-19 in Brazil: 37,923 new cases, 1,091 deaths

A screenshot from the Ministry of Health Coronavírus Brasil dashboard:

And another, showing COVID-19 deaths per epidemiological week:

And as always, with all pandemic numbers, assume that these are serious undercounts.

COVID-19 in Florida: 10,059 new cases

A screenshot from Rebekah Jones's Florida's Community Coronavirus Dashboard:

WHO update on COVID-19: 187,171 new cases, 4,826 new deaths

Two screenshots from the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard: