H5N1

Florida: 10,431 new COVID-19 cases, 91 deaths

A screenshot from Florida COVID Action:

I believe this is the third consecutive day Florida has reported over 10,000 cases.

COVID-19 is devastating the US, and leaving an uneven toll

Via The New York Times: The Virus Is Devastating the U.S., and Leaving an Uneven Toll. Excerpt:

HOUSTON — The United States is winding up a particularly devastating week, one of the very worst since the coronavirus pandemic began nine months ago. 

On Friday, a national single-day record was set, with more than 226,000 new cases. It was one of many data points that illustrated the depth and spread of a virus that has killed more than 278,000 people in this country, more than the entire population of Lubbock, Texas, or Modesto, Calif., or Jersey City, N.J.  

“It’s just an astonishing number,” said Caitlin Rivers, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “We’re in the middle of this really severe wave and I think as we go through the day to day of this pandemic, it can be easy to lose sight of how massive and deep the tragedy is.” 

In California, where daily case reports have tripled in the last month, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a new round of regional stay-at-home orders to address a mounting crisis over intensive-care beds. Some counties in the Bay Area said they were enacting tough new restrictions this weekend, before the state rules come into effect. And in South Florida, which is in the early stages of a new surge, physicians and politicians alike worried that there might not be enough resources to treat the sick. 

As the virus has spread, infectious-disease experts have gained a better understanding of who among the nation’s nearly 330 million residents is the most vulnerable. 

Nursing home deaths have consistently represented about 40 percent of the country’s Covid-19 deaths since midsummer, even as facilities kept visitors away and took other precautions and as the share of infections related to long-term care facilities fell substantially. 

Underlying conditions have played a pivotal role in determining who survives the virus. Americans who have conditions like diabetes, hypertension and obesity — about 45 percent of the population — are more vulnerable.  

And new evidence has emerged that people in lower-income neighborhoods experienced higher exposure risk to the virus because of their need to work outside the home.

“The pandemic is us,” said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine, who added that part of the word “pandemic” derives from “demos,” ancient Greek for “people.” “It’s the same word that gives us ‘demography’ or ‘epidemic.’ The pandemic is collectively all of our actions.”

Germany's pandemic response was once hailed as a model. Now it's struggling

Via The Washington Post: Germany's pandemic response was once hailed as a model. Now it's struggling. Excerpt:

BERLIN — Susanne Herold, pulmonary infectious-disease specialist at the University Hospital in the central German town of Giessen, is not looking forward to Christmas.  

While the hospital’s intensive care ward has 50 of its 150 beds available, it only has the staff to service around 100 — meaning the unit is now effectively full. 

“We are struggling,” she said. Four out of 12 doctors on her team are currently home after contracting the coronavirus.  

While many countries across Europe introduced lockdowns in early November to bring down soaring case numbers and ease the burden on hospitals, Germany opted for what it called a “lockdown light” — closing bars and restaurants for eat-in meals but keeping hair salons and most businesses and retail open. Restrictions will be loosened in much of the country over the Christmas holiday week. 

Already, contrasts around Europe are striking. 

In France, where a lockdown required people to fill out a form to leave the house and nonessential businesses closed, cases have plummeted from more than 50,000 a day in early November to around 10,000 a day. Belgium, which had the highest per capita infection rate in Europe before its lockdown, has seen cases fall from more than 17,000 a day to around 2,500. 

And although Germany stopped its exponential growth in its tracks, its number of daily cases has barely budged, hovering at around 20,000 per day.  

It marks an about-face for Germany, which had been praised for its measured response in the first wave of the pandemic. That initial success may be hurting it now, some experts say, with people less inclined to take restrictions seriously. 

Meanwhile, a decentralized federal state system makes agreeing to nationwide measures complicated, while its history with dictatorship makes for discomfort with anything seen as too authoritarian. 

'Very tense' 

“Even when Germany was seen as so successful, and taken as an example for many, we always knew we were always looking at one window of time,” Lothar Wieler, the head of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute, the federal agency responsible for infectious-disease control, said this week. 

“Right now, we just can’t get the numbers down. The situation remains very tense.”

Turkey in weekend lockdown as COVID-19 cases hit record highs

Via Reuters: Turkey in weekend lockdown as coronavirus cases hit record highs. Excerpt:

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey has entered its first full weekend lockdown since May after coronavirus infections and deaths hit record highs in recent days. 

The country of 83 million people on Friday recorded 32,736 new cases, including asymptomatic ones, the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic in March. 

The total death toll rose by 193 on Friday, touching a daily record level seen earlier this week, to 14,509.  

Turkish television showed largely empty squares and streets on Saturday in the largest city Istanbul, the capital Ankara and the third largest city Izmir, with only a few people and vehicles out and about. 

Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu was quoted as saying by state-owned Anadolu news agency that most people were obeying the lockdown rules. 

Turkey now ranks fourth globally for the number of daily new cases, behind only the United States, India and Brazil - all countries with far larger populations than Turkey. 

For four months, Turkey only reported daily symptomatic cases, but it has reported all cases since Nov. 25. Historical data for all positive cases and the cumulative total are still not available.

COVID-19 on Saturday morning: 66,065,479 cases, 1,521,862 deaths

A screenshot from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) dashboard:

If we continue to record over 600,000 cases a day, we should hit 75,000,000 cases by Christmas.

California COVID-19 cases soar as new shutdown approaches

Via the Los Angeles Times: California COVID-19 cases soar as new shutdown approaches. Excerpt:

Los Angeles County set another all-time record for daily coronavirus cases, recording more than 8,800 on Friday in a sign that the surge continues to worsen as new stay-at-home orders loom. 

It marked a jump of more than 1,000 cases compared with Thursday, when 7,854 new cases were reported. 

The hard-hit county has set a record with 2,668 people with COVID-19 currently hospitalized. Of those, nearly a quarter are in intensive care, where beds are rapidly filling up.  

Statewide over the last week, the state has averaged 17,007 new cases per day, according to data compiled by The Times. That’s a 61.6% increase from two weeks ago, and dwarfs even the darkest days of the summertime surge, when the rolling average never topped 10,000. 

To put that number into perspective, 119,050 Californians have tested positive for the coronavirus in just the last seven days — almost the equivalent of everyone living in the city of Berkeley being infected.  

The state reported 21,185 new cases on Thursday alone, the second-highest figure ever for a single day. The record, 21,848, was set Monday — though that number was inflated somewhat by reporting delays over the Thanksgiving weekend. 

The unprecedented case counts aren’t merely a byproduct of ramped-up testing. The average rate at which coronavirus tests are coming back positive has also soared, from 5.2% two weeks ago to 7.7%.  

With case numbers that are historically high and show no signs of relenting, California officials are turning their eyes toward the state’s hospital system, which they’ve long warned is at risk of being flooded by a wave of coronavirus patients. 

Statewide, 8,831 Californians were hospitalized with a confirmed case as of Wednesday — an all-time high and nearly double the number seen two weeks ago. There are also more coronavirus-positive patients in intensive care, 2,066, than ever before.  

“The bottom line is if we don’t act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday. “If we don’t act now, we’ll continue to see a death rate climb, more lives lost.”  

California reported 148 additional deaths Thursday — the highest-single day total since Sept. 29, Times’ data show. 

The state has also seen more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 fatalities on each of the last three days. That hasn’t happened since early September.

US breaks daily COVID-19 records as Fauci warns January will be 'terrible'

Via The Guardian: US breaks daily coronavirus records as Fauci warns January will be 'terrible'. Excerpt:

The US set three grim coronavirus records on Thursday, as it recorded the highest daily number of coronavirus deaths, the highest number of new cases, and the number of people admitted to hospital with Covid exceeded 100,000 for the second day in a row.  

Some 2,879 people died from coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University, while there were 217,664 new cases, as the top infectious disease official, Dr Anthony Fauci, warned “January is going to be terrible”. 

Numerous states have warned that they are running out of intensive care beds, with 100,667 people currently in hospital with Covid. 

The escalating figures came as California plans to implement a sweeping stay-at-home order in a desperate attempt to get coronavirus infections under control, and after President-elect Joe Biden said he would ask all Americans to wear face masks during his first 100 days in office.  

Donald Trump stayed silent on the crisis on Thursday, as the total of number of people who have died reached 276,366. 

The president is due to hold a rally in Georgia, which is seeing its highest number of coronavirus cases since August, on Saturday. Two Republican senators face runoff elections in the state in January.  

In an interview with Newsweek, Fauci warned that the worst was yet to come in the US.  

“I think January is going to be terrible because you’re going to have the Thanksgiving surge super-imposed upon the Christmas surge,” Fauci said. 

“So it’s entirely conceivable that January could be the worst.”

Record US COVID-19 deaths prompt urgent calls for masking, stay-at-home orders

Via Reuters: Record U.S. deaths prompt urgent calls for masking, stay-at-home orders.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. leaders urgently called on Americans to wear masks and threatened even more drastic stay-at-home orders after deaths from the coronavirus set a single-day record, with two people dying every minute. 

More than 213,830 new cases and 2,861 deaths were reported on Thursday, according to a Reuters tally of official data, with several experts projecting the death toll will soon surpass 3,000 per day. 

President-elect Joe Biden promised a new national strategy that will impose mask mandates where he will have authority, such as federal buildings and for interstate travel, once he takes over for departing President Donald Trump on Jan. 20.  

Beyond the mandate, he urged people to voluntarily wear masks, a novel approach after lax public discipline to date and Trump’s own timid endorsement of mask-wearing. 

“On the first day I’m inaugurated ... I’m going to ask the public for 100 days to mask, just 100 days to mask, not forever, 100 days,” Biden told CNN in an interview Thursday. “And I think we’ll see a significant reduction if we incur that - if that occurs, with vaccinations and masking, to drive down the numbers considerably.”

US logs a record 3,157 COVID-19 deaths in one day

Via The Guardian: US logs a record 3,157 coronavirus deaths in one day. Excerpt:

The US recorded its highest daily number of coronavirus deaths on Wednesday, as the number of people admitted to hospital with Covid exceeded 100,000 for the first time since the pandemic began. 

According to the Johns Hopkins University tracker, 3,157 new deaths were recorded on Wednesday, more than the number of people killed in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The previous high was the 2,607 deaths recorded on 15 April, at the beginning of the pandemic. 

The grave total came as Joe Biden, the president-elect, threw his weight behind a bipartisan $908bn coronavirus relief effort in Congress which would provide $300 a week in federal unemployment benefits and direct $160bn to states and cities.  

There were 200,070 new cases on Wednesday, only the second time that new cases had exceeded 200,000. With the total caseload now standing at 13,911,728, the US is expected to record its 14-millionth case on Thursday, and experts predict the death toll could reach nearly 450,000 by the end of February.

Youyang Gu's December 1 estimate of US COVID-19 infections

A screenshot from Youyang Gu's very interesting website COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning:

And the explanation:

Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of November, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-5x higher than the reported cases (20-50% detection rate). See our revised November 2020 writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.