H5N1

Covid-19: New fear grips Europe as cases top 30m worldwide

Via BBC News: Covid-19: New fear grips Europe as cases top 30m worldwide. Excerpt:

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases across the globe has surpassed 30 million, according to figures by America's Johns Hopkins University.  

More than 940,000 have died with Covid-19 since the outbreak began in China late last year. The US, India and Brazil have the most confirmed cases, but there is a renewed spike in infections across Europe. 

Many northern hemisphere countries are now bracing for a second wave of the pandemic as winter approaches. 

In the UK, the government is considering taking further England-wide measures including a short period of restrictions to try to slow a second surge of infections. 

Outside Europe, Israel brings in a second nationwide lockdown later on Friday - the first nation to do so. 

Africa has recorded more than a million confirmed cases, although the true extent of the pandemic in the continent is not known. Testing rates are reported to be low, which could distort official figures.  

What is happening in key countries? 

A team of infectious disease experts at Johns Hopkins University, in the US city of Baltimore, have been documenting the global spread of Covid-19 on its tracking website. 

According to their data, the US remains by far the worst-hit country in terms of sheer numbers, with more than 6.6 million confirmed infections, and over 197,000 deaths. 

The number of new daily infections has been dropping, though, after a spike in July. 

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump denied downplaying the seriousness of Covid-19, despite admitting in a recorded interview to having done that. 

In India, the number of known infections climbed above five million this week - the second-highest caseload in the world.  

When comparing figures from different countries it is important to bear in mind factors such as population size and density. For instance, India has a population of 1.3bn people. 

However, the virus appears to be spreading much faster in India than any other country, with daily cases topping 90,000 in recent days. More than 80,000 people have died, amid reports of shortages of intensive care beds and oxygen supplies.

Brazil has had more than 4.4 million confirmed cases, with more than 134,000 fatalities - the second-highest death toll after the US.

President Jair Bolsonaro has come under criticism for downplaying coronavirus, particularly after attending an anti-lockdown rally. The right-wing leader - who had been calling the virus a "little flu" - himself tested positive in July.  

Argentina and Mexico have also been hit hard by the outbreak in Latin America.

COVID-19 on Thursday afternoon: 30,003,378 cases, 943,203 deaths

A screenshot from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) dashboard:

On July 21, the global case total was 14,945,000. So cases have doubled in less than 2 months.

ECDC: Baseline projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK: Update

ECDC has published Baseline projections of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK: update. The executive summary:

Following widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) over several weeks, the COVID-19 epidemic reached a peak in most of these countries in April or early May 2020. Some countries have since experienced a sustained decrease in the number of reported cases, progressively reaching the level of transmission reported during the first week of the outbreak. 

Due to this decrease in transmission and improvements in epidemiological surveillance and healthcare capacity, some countries have decided to discontinue several non-pharmaceutical interventions and now plan to gradually phase out their ‘stay-at-home’ policies.

Mathematical modelling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and associated COVID-19 disease is used to assess the potential progression of the epidemic within a population and to inform decision-making on potential interventions to ensure public health. The methodology inherently facilitates the quantification of uncertainty associated with these estimations and projections. 

In May 2020, ECDC produced a set of short-term forecasts of the expected number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and hospitalised cases (subdivided into general hospital wards and intensive care units), under a set of assumptions. In this report, we present updated 30-day projections, together with a visual validation of the original forecasts. 

We continue to model a baseline ‘status quo’ scenario, assuming all control measures in place on 8 September 2020 will be continued until the end of the projection period (14 October 2020). In this version, we have included data on testing rates to simulate the increased ascertainment of milder cases. For almost all countries, testing data is correct until 23 August. We have also included the use of face masks (both mandatory and voluntary) as a means for reducing both transmission and susceptibility to infection. The model is based on the epidemiological data and scientific evidence available at the time of publication. 

Further developments are expected as new information and epidemiological data become available. The model was developed at ECDC and applied at a national level for EU/EEA countries and the UK. 

Mathematical models provide a helpful approach for quantifying uncertainty, but their output should be interpreted and appraised in light of both the underlying assumptions and the completeness and potential bias of the data used to parameterise and calibrate them. An assessment of the potential trajectory of disease and mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the most appropriate response strategies, should be based on a comprehensive analysis of the specific epidemiological situation in each country, using modelling projections in context.

COVID-19 on Thursday morning: 29,910,816 cases, 941,541 deaths

A screenshot from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) dashboard:

Antigen tests for COVID-19: Some states don't count or release data

Thanks to Lauren Weber for alerting me to this report, which she wrote with Rachana Pradhan and Hannah Recht, for Kaiser Health News. It appeared today in USA Today: Antigen tests for COVID-19: Some states don't count or release data. Excerpt:

More than 20 states either don’t release or have incomplete data on the rapid antigen tests now considered key to containing the coronavirus, which has sickened more than 6 million Americans.  

The lapses leave officials and the public in the dark about the true scope of the pandemic as untold numbers of cases go uncounted. 

The gap will only widen as tens of millions of antigen tests sweep the country. Federal officials are prioritizing the tests to quickly detect COVID-19’s spread over slower, but more accurate, PCR tests. 

Relying on patchy data on COVID testing carries enormous consequences as officials decide whether to reopen schools and businesses: Go back to normal too quickly and risk even greater outbreaks of disease. Keep people at home too long and risk an even greater economic crisis.  

“The absence of information is a very dangerous thing,” said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, which represents public health officials. “We will be blind to the pandemic. It will be happening around us and we will have no data.” 

The states that don’t report antigen test results or don’t count antigen positives as COVID cases are California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming, as well as the District of Columbia. 

So far, most of the COVID tests given in the U.S. have been PCR tests, which are processed in medical labs and can take days to return results. By contrast, antigen tests offer results in minutes outside of labs, appealing to everyone from medical clinics to sports teams and universities.  

Each relies on swabs to test patients. But unlike using tests run through labs, many providers who would use antigen tests don’t have an easy way to send data electronically to public health authorities. 

Since July, though, the federal government has pushed roughly 5 million antigen tests into nearly 14,000 nursing homes to contain outbreaks among staff members and residents. 

The Department of Health and Human Services also awarded a $760 million contract to buy 150 million rapid antigen tests from Abbott, the Illinois-based diagnostics behemoth. It planned to send 750,000 of those to nursing homes starting last week, Brett Giroir, the HHS official heading the Trump administration’s testing efforts, told industry executives Sept. 8. Federal officials have not elaborated on how many tests will be sent elsewhere but have suggested many will go to governors to distribute as schools reopen. 

The rush of antigen tests, however, won’t be particularly useful to officials if the results are not publicly and uniformly reported.

Global report: India's COVID-19 cases pass 5 million

Via The Guardian: Global report: India's coronavirus cases pass 5 million | World news. Excerpt:

India’s total coronavirus cases passed 5 million on Wednesday, health ministry data showed, as the pandemic extended its grip on the vast country at an ever faster rate.  

With its latest million cases recorded in just 11 days, a world record, India now has 5.02 million infections. Only the United States has more, with 6.59 million.  

India has for some time been recording the world’s biggest daily rises in cases, and on Wednesday, the rise was just over 90,000 with a record 1,290 deaths.  

According to the Times of India, the country took 167 days to reach one million cases, but the next million came in just 21 days, faster than the US and Brazil. Just 29 days later, India posted 4 million infections, becoming only the third country to reach that mark.  

India is now testing about a million people a day, but many experts say this is not enough, and that the true number of infections may be far higher. This has been borne out in several studies in recent weeks measuring antibodies against the virus among the cramped populations of megacities New Delhi and Mumbai.  

The India Council for Medical Research, the country’s lead pandemic agency, said last week that its survey had suggested that already in May, 6.5 million people were infected. 

The same goes for deaths – 82,066 as of Wednesday, far fewer than the US toll of 195,000 – but many deaths are not properly recorded by authorities even in normal times. 

India has one the world’s most poorly funded healthcare systems and the nation of 1.3 billion people is home to some of the most densely populated cities and towns.

Why the acceleration in new COVID-19 cases in Canada is concerning

Via CBC News: Why the acceleration in new COVID-19 cases in Canada is concerning. Excerpt:

The steady increase in new cases of COVID-19 in Canada's most populated provinces is a concerning trend, according to the country's chief public health officer, as hospitals work to keep intensive care admissions manageable. 

Dr. Theresa Tam said in a statement Monday that an average of 618 new cases have been reported daily in the last seven days, particularly in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia — 20 per cent higher than the previous week. 

"We're watching not just the numbers but the speed of ramp up and how widespread the cases are," Tam said in an interview with CBC Radio's The Current. 

"If there's a rapid rise over a short period of time, confined to a very specific location, what you're worried about is stressing the public health system and the health system in those areas." 

Hospital and ICU admissions are a sign of concern since older groups generally have more serious outcomes from COVID-19, although people of any age can be affected and transmit the infection, she said. Dr. Isaac Bogoch calls the upward trend in COVID-19 cases 'worrisome.'   

'I was really expecting to see more of a rise like this in October but it's real and it's happening now,' said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist. 

Tam said her public health counterparts say the situation is currently "manageable." But their jobs become more difficult if people aren't doing their part to minimize their numbers of contacts and exposures should a case occur. 

Dr. Kevin Smith, president and CEO of Toronto's University Health Network, has said he's "worried" because the number of patients with COVID-19 in intensive care has increased after some weeks of having no one hospitalized with the disease. 

Cases are doubling in Canada's largest city every six to eight days, Smith told CBC Radio's Metro Morning. He called on people to "get serious" about physical distancing, masking, handwashing and limiting gatherings.  

Epidemiologists look at the effective reproductive number of COVID-19, which indicates how many other people an infected person will pass the virus onto, on average. Public health experts like to see the value significantly below one so cases don't multiply out of control. 

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said Canada's current effective reproductive number, or R value, is above one, which by definition is exponential growth.

Ontario hospitals alarmed by increase in COVID-19 cases and ICU admissions

Via The Globe and Mail: Ontario hospitals alarmed by increase in COVID-19 cases and ICU admissions. Excerpt:

Ontario’s hospitals are sounding the alarm about rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in the province, warning that a spike could force new lockdowns within weeks.  

The heads of both the Ontario Hospital Association and the University Health Network, a cluster of Toronto hospitals, spoke out on the weekend about the danger unless people start taking better care. Their warnings came as the province reported its third straight day with more than 200 new COVID-19 cases.  

“If growth continues exponentially … we could easily be facing a situation in just a few weeks where the government may have to contemplate measures that no one would want to see it contemplate again,” Ontario Hospital Association president Anthony Dale said in an interview.  

“Everything about staying open and trying to live our lives as best we can while the pandemic is here is predicated on controlling community spread, and we’re just, we’re seeing it slip away, I’m afraid, unless we’re far more diligent as individuals.” 

Spiking COVID-19 cases in British Columbia prompted that province to clamp down last week on entertainment facilities. Nightclubs and banquet halls were closed, bars and restaurants had their hours reduced and venues were ordered to reduce music to conversational level, so as not to encourage shouting.

Testing positive: Half of Argentina's COVID-19 checks yield infection

Via Reuters: Testing positive: half of Argentina's coronavirus checks yield infection. Excerpt:

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina’s coronavirus “positive rate,” the number of daily infections to the number of tests carried out, has topped 50%, underscoring how much work the South American country has to do to bring the virus under control. 

Health ministry data on Monday showed the country carried out 17,955 tests the day before, when it recorded 9,056 confirmed COVID-19 cases. That indicates a positive rate of 50.4%, one of the highest in the world.   

Argentina, which was one of the region’s success stories early on with a strict lockdown imposed in March, has seen infections soar in recent months, first gripping the capital Buenos Aires and surrounding areas and now spreading in the provinces. 

The country, which has been trying to open its hard-hit economy, has a total of 555,537 confirmed cases, the tenth-highest case load in the world, with 11,412 fatalities. 

The proportion of daily infections to tests had been between above 40% since the start of August, but had not quite climbed above half before Sunday. Other countries in the region including Bolivia and Mexico also have sky-high positive rates.

COVID-19 on Monday morning: 29,051,154 cases, 924,879 deaths

A screenshot from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) dashboard: