H5N1

Tropical Cyclone Yasa approaches Fiji

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Via ReliefWeb: Tropical Cyclone Yasa - Dec 2020.

The newly formed Tropical Cyclone YASA is moving in the South Pacific Ocean, between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands...On 14-16 December, YASA is forecast to strengthen, as it moves clockwise between Vanuatu and Fiji islands. Then it is expected to move south-east, reaching Viti Levu island (Fiji) on 18 December, with maximum sustained wind between 170-200 km/h. A strong wind warning has been issued for Rotuma island (northern Fiji), and for the central and southern coastal Vanuatu. A flash flood warning is in effect for northern Vanua Levu (Fiji). (ECHO, 14 Dec 2020) 

Tropical cyclone YASA is strengthening as it continues clockwise in the South Pacific Ocean, between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands....YASA is forecast to move south-east, passing between Viti Levu and Vanua Levu Islands (Fiji) on 17 December, with maximum sustained wind up to 215 km/h. After that, it will cross the Eastern Division islands on 18 December. (ECHO, 15 Dec 2020) 

Tropical cyclone YASA is forecast to move south-east, approaching Vanua Levu Island on the morning of 17 December, with maximum sustained wind up to 220-230 km/h. After that, it will move southward, crossing the Eastern Division Islands on 17-18 December and passing 415 km east of Tongatapu Island (Tonga) on 19 December. According to media reports, the authorities set-up 1,037 evacuation centres across Central, Northern and Western Divisions. (ECHO, 16 Dec 2020)  

TC Yasa will make landfall on 17 Dec around 8pm Fiji time on Vanua Levu island (population 135,961) and pass over many other smaller islands in the Fiji island group as a Cat 5 storm. According to analysis by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), approximately 73,000 people are potentially exposed to widespread wind damage. Severe impact for outlying areas on Eastern coast of Vanua Levu in particular Bua Province, is expected. There is a 4pm curfew in place for the whole country and all public transport is stopped. (OCHA, 17 Dec 2020)

Climate and COVID-19: Converging crises

Via The Lancet: Climate and COVID-19: converging crises - The Lancet.

The climate crisis is still raging. A year ago, news headlines were dominated by the climate youth movement and a sense of urgency. But COVID-19 has displaced that interest and awareness. In fact, the causes of both crises share commonalities, and their effects are converging. 

The climate emergency and COVID-19, a zoonotic disease, are both borne of human activity that has led to environmental degradation. Neither the climate emergency nor a zoonotic pandemic were unexpected. Both have led to the preventable loss of lives through actions that are delayed, insufficient, or mistaken. However, aligning responses presents an opportunity to improve public health, create a sustainable economic future, and better protect the planet's remaining natural resources and biodiversity. 

That health and climate change are interwoven is widely accepted, with extensive evidence of their interactions. For the past 5 years, the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change has monitored and reported more than 40 global indicators that measure the impact of our changing climate on health. The newly published 2020 report includes novel indicators on heat-related mortality, migration and population displacement, urban green spaces, low-carbon diets, and the economic costs of labour capacity loss due to extreme heat. 

The breadth of the indicators has deepened scientific understanding of how climate affects health and puts stress on health systems. This is manifested in, for example, the health effects of air pollution leading to asthma, challenges to global food security and reduced crop yield potentially leading to poor diets, limited access to green space increasing risk factors for mental health conditions, and vulnerability to heat in people older than 65 years. Treating these resultant health conditions effectively depends on health systems' capacity, which is in turn dependent on the resilience of health services that are increasingly stretched in response to the two crises. 

5 years of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change has also consolidated the importance of regional data to inform country-level policy. To that end, The Lancet Public Health has published the first regional report of the Asia chapter of the Lancet Countdown, joining the third annual publication of the Australian MJA-Lancet Countdown. As the planet's largest carbon emitter and home to a fifth of the world's population (1·4 billion people), China's response to climate change is crucial at both national and international levels. 

The key findings of the report lead to a call for province-targeted responses in the face of accelerating health risks due to rising temperatures. The 23 indicators show that although impressive improvements have been made across several sectors, and the potential for improving public health by tackling climate change can already be seen, the gap in China's response to the health effects of climate change is still substantial. 

Curbing the drivers of climate change will help to suppress the emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic diseases that are made more likely by intensive farming, international trade of exotic animals, and increased human encroachment into wildlife habitats, which in turn increase the likelihood of contact between people and zoonotic disease. Increased international travel and urbanisation leading to higher population density encourage the rapid spread of zoonoses once they spill over into the human population. These factors also have an important role in climate change as environmental determinants of health. 

Both COVID-19 and the climate crisis have exposed the fact that the poorest and most marginalised people in society, such as migrants and refugee populations, are always the most vulnerable to shocks. With regard to climate change, those most impacted by extremes have usually contributed the least to the root causes of the crisis. This year's Countdown report finds that no country is immune to avoidable loss of lives arising from widening inequalities, with every indicator in the report following a worsening trend. 

Climate has slipped from the top of the global agenda because of political indifference and the need to deal with the immediacies of COVID-19. 5 years on from the Paris Agreement, seizing the opportunity to refocus interests on sustainability offers the co-benefits of protecting our future health, the environment, and our planetary systems. As governments embark on economic recovery plans in the wake of COVID-19, concerns for climate change and equity are rightly focused on a green recovery. A global rapid transition to clean energy sources is needed, ending the stranglehold of fossil fuels. Decisions being made now must tackle both crises together to ensure the most effective response to each.

Nicaragua, Honduras - Hurricane ETA

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Via ReliefWeb: Nicaragua, Honduras - Hurricane ETA (GDACS, NOAA, Government of Nicaragua, SINAPRED, media) (ECHO Daily Flash of 03 November 2020).

• The new Hurricane ETA is moving west over the Caribbean Sea towards the eastern coast of northern Nicaragua. On 3 November, its center was located approximately 60 km east of Puerto Cabezas City (RACCN, northern Nicaragua), and 120 km south-east of Nicaragua/Honduras border, with maximum sustained wind of 240 km/h (Category 4 Hurricane). 

• ETA may become a Category 5 Hurricane before making landfall and it is expected to reach the coast of southern Puerto Cabezas in the afternoon of 3 November. Heavy rainfall, high storm surge, and strong wind are forecast over northern Nicaragua.  

• Evacuation orders have been issued for coastal areas in Nicaragua and Honduras, while in Nicaragua, red alerts have been declared for the Autonomous Region of the Northern Caribbean and the Mining Triangle.  

• A hurricane warning is in effect for coastal areas from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to the central coast of Nicaragua. A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal areas from central Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

As cold weather arrives, US states see record increases in COVID-19 cases

Via Reuters: As cold weather arrives, U.S. states see record increases in COVID-19 cases. Excerpt:

(Reuters) - Nine U.S. states have reported record increases in COVID-19 cases over the last seven days, mostly in the upper Midwest and West where chilly weather is forcing more activities indoors. 

On Saturday alone, four states - Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana and Wisconsin - saw record increases in new cases and nationally nearly 49,000 new infections were reported, the highest for a Saturday in seven weeks, according to a Reuters analysis. Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota and Wyoming also set new records for cases last week.  

Daytime highs in many of these states are now in the 50s Fahrenheit (10 Celsius). Health experts have long warned that colder temperatures driving people inside could promote the spread of the virus.  

Montana has reported record numbers of new cases for three out of the last four days and also has a record number of COVID-19 patients in its hospitals. 

Wisconsin has set records for new cases two out of the last three days and also reported record hospitalizations on Saturday. On average 22% of tests are coming back positive, one of the highest rates in the country.

Wisconsin’s Democratic governor mandated masks on Aug. 1 but Republican lawmakers are backing a lawsuit challenging the requirement.

 

Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson is one of several prominent Republicans who have tested positive for coronavirus since President Donald Trump announced he had contracted the virus. 

Because of the surge in cases in the Midwest, nursing homes and assisted-living facilities operated by Aspirus in northern Wisconsin and Michigan are barring most visitors as they did earlier this year. 

Bellin Health, which runs a hospital in Green Bay, Wisconsin, said last week its emergency department has been past capacity at times and doctors had to place patients in beds in the hallways. 

The United States is reporting 42,600 new cases and 700 deaths on average each day, compared with 35,000 cases and 800 deaths in mid-September. Deaths are a lagging indicator and tend to rise several weeks after cases increase.  

Kentucky is the first Southern state to report a record increase in cases in several weeks. Governor Andy Beshear said last week was the highest number of cases the state has seen since the pandemic started.

Doctors alarmed by surge in hospital visits as toxic smoke engulfs west coast

Via The Guardian: Doctors alarmed by surge in hospital visits as toxic smoke engulfs west coast. Excerpt:

A month after hundreds of wildfires started spewing toxic smoke along the entire west coast, doctors are seeing the alarming health effects of air pollution piling up.  

In northern California’s Stanford Health Care system, hospital admissions have jumped by 12% in recent weeks, including a stunning 43% jump in cerebrovascular conditions such as strokes. In Oregon, health officials reported nearly one out of 10 people visiting the emergency room had asthma-like conditions due to the smoke. And in San Francisco, doctors had to cancel their clinics for recovering Covid-19 patients, because the air was so unhealthy that just getting to their appointments could make patients more sick.  

A growing body of scientific evidence paints a dire picture of the effects of wildfire smoke on the human body. Experts told the Guardian earlier this month that the smoke can have an almost immediate effect on people’s health, causing asthma, heart attacks, kidney problems and even mental health issues to surge.

Now, as the west coast reckons with an unprecedented stretch of hazardous air, scientists and health experts are growing even more concerned about the immediate and long-term consequences of continuous exposure to the harmful pollution. 

In the Bay Area, despite firefighters gaining control of the nearest blazes started by lightning strikes in August, smoky conditions have persisted, turning the sky orange and keeping people inside their homes. 

“We’re on the 30th consecutive day of our ‘Spare the Air’ alerts,” said Kristina Chu of the Bay Area air quality management district on Wednesday. “That’s an all-time record,” she explained; the previous longest was 14 days.

AQI in Portland, Oregon: 507 (hazardous). COVID-19: 293 new cases, 6 new deaths

A screenshot from the Portland Postal Bldg., Oregon, USA Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index:

And a September 12 update from the Oregon Health Authority:

PORTLAND, Ore. — COVID-19 has claimed six more lives in Oregon, raising the state's death toll to 505, the Oregon Health Authority reported at 12:01 a.m. today.

“Today's 500th death marks another sad milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic in Oregon," said Oregon Health Authority Director Patrick Allen. “These are our family members, our friends, neighbors and colleagues. We extend our deepest condolences to every Oregonian who has suffered a loss to COVID-19."

Oregon Health Authority reported 293 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 as of 12:01 a.m. today, bringing the state total to 29,156.

Portland AQI: At 441, getting worse

A screenshot from the Portland, Oregon, USA Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index:

By contrast, Vancouver Second Narrows is at 200 (very unhealthy), less than half Portland's. And our sky this evening has never looked worse in the 53 years I have lived here. The smoke is so thick the temperature has dropped sharply today.

I wonder what it's like in the ER's of West Coast hospitals tonight.

AQI in Portland, Oregon: 375 (Hazardous)

A screenshot from Portland, Oregon, USA Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index.

This is what Beijing or New Delhi might endure in a bad winter. I hope someone is monitoring excess mortality in the western US and Canada. And firefighters need to be rotated out and replaced on a frequent basis, or they'll form a large fraction of that excess mortality.

AQI in Vancouver: Getting worse

A screenshot of Air Pollution in Vancouver: Real-time Air Quality Index Visual Map. It's decidedly worse than this morning:

Purple means "very unhealthy." 

 

The sun came up orange this morning, just like the smoky summer of 2017, and visibility is very poor. At least it's cooler than yesterday. We are looking forward to rain on Monday.

Portland, Oregon AQI: 247 (very unhealthy)

A screenshot from the Portland, Oregon, USA Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index:

It's bad here in Vancouver as well, but not that bad; we're at 164.