H5N1

Heat wave NYC: Live updates as dangerous temperatures arrive

Via The New York Times: Heat Wave NYC: Live Updates as Dangerous Temperatures Arrive. Excerpt:

As a blistering heat wave continued to roast the eastern half of the United States, New York City, already thought of by its residents as an urban sauna on an average summer day, braced itself for the worst. 

OZY Fest, a hybrid music-lecture-food festival that had been expected to draw tens of thousands to the Great Lawn of Central Park over the weekend, had been canceled, as had the New York City Triathlon. Both were called off at the request of city officials.  

New Yorkers were also worried that the electricity grid would falter and plunge them into muggy darkness, as it had in parts of Midtown Manhattan last week. Others, undeterred by warnings of extreme temperatures, flocked to parks, pools and beaches.

The threat of the heat was serious enough that Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency and cleared his presidential campaigning schedule so he could stay put all weekend. He had been criticized for being absent during the blackout last Saturday. 

“This is a very, very difficult situation,” Mr. de Blasio said in a news conference on Friday. “Everyone’s got to take it seriously.”  

The stifling humidity came amid an excessive heat warning for the greater New York City area that began Friday afternoon and was scheduled to last through Sunday evening. 

The misery of people already struggling with the weather was compounded on Friday night, when several subway lines were suspended in both directions after an episode the Metropolitan Transportation Authority attributed to a “network communications” issue.  

By Saturday, National Weather Service meteorologists said, temperatures in Manhattan could reach 97 degrees. They cautioned it could feel as high as 111.

"We have not seen temperatures like this in at least seven years,” Mr. de Blasio said on Friday.  

Officials said it was the hottest stretch of weather to hit the region in a summer that had been marked by relentless rain. The Weather Service defines a heat wave as three consecutive days of temperatures that hit 90 degrees. 

The heat has been exceptional elsewhere in the nation. Dangerously hot weather stretched across much of the central and eastern United States earlier in the week, with ocean air trapped in a “heat dome” in the middle of the country. That air has reached the East Coast. 

In New York City, high temperatures can feel particularly brutal thanks to the urban heat island effect, in which heat absorbed by asphalt and concrete makes cities significantly hotter than nearby suburbs — particularly at night, when the temperature gap can be as wide as 22 degrees.

India: The water shortage in Chennai

Last week I wrote to a friend in Chennai, and asked for news of the water shortage. He wrote back:

Life has been so bad as we are facing water scarcity. This is really disappointing and an alarm to people how to use water sensibly without wasting it. This is just because of the lack of rain for the last 18 months. Monsoon failure in two successive years made the water crisis worse this summer. The delayed arrival of the southwest monsoon, which was forecast in the second week of June, also left Chennai and several regions deprived of groundwater resources.

Dams are completely empty!

So the government has just initiated third plant to convert sea water to drinking water. This process is quite popular in Gulf countries, especially in Israel, and Chennai is going to follow Israel's technology.

Even today I met government officials and requested 6,000 litres of water that was booked 35 days ago via online but they were not in a position to deliver it any time soon. Ground water is also not helping. So things are worsening day by day and we are expecting heavy rain and praying to god so that the dams will be full. Even continuous rain for a single day or two will be enough for the dams.

Floodwater in New Orleans like 'toxic' stew, experts warn. Swimming in it? That's 'crazy'

Via nola.com: Floodwater in New Orleans like 'toxic' stew, experts warn. Swimming in it? That's 'crazy'. Excerpt:

On a day like Wednesday, when the New Orleans area was pounded with as much as seven inches of rain in less than three hours, it may seem like the only way past floodwater is through it. However, experts warn that wading — and especially swimming — through a flood could expose people to a stew of toxic waste and chemicals. 

One video making the rounds on social media showed someone swimming through several feet of water near Canal Street. 

 "That is crazy," said Tiong Aw, a public health microbiologist at Tulane University. "It can be dangerous and can make humans susceptible to infectious diseases and injuries."  

Other experts agreed, noting all manner of potential hazards. 

“If you’re neighboring a rural area, human and livestock waste can get into the floodwater, which can be toxic to humans,” said D.J. Sprenger, a member of Team Rubicon, a disaster response team that provides rescue and resources to areas all over the country. 

“If a residential area is flooded, medical supplies or cleaning agents can be in the water. Wild or stray animals like water snakes or rodents could be swimming in the water,” Sprenger said. “Floodwater can contain downed power lines, and the water current could be charged after a storm.”

After Hurricane Katrina hit in August 2005, the Louisiana Department of Health and New Orleans Public Response Team identified 869 cases of potential infectious disease in the weeks immediately afterward and 18 cases of Vibrio skin infections. Vibrio bacteria live in coastal waters and are more active from May through October. Five of those 18 patients died.  

One 60-year-old man arrived at a hospital with ankle wounds and diarrhea after wading through floodwater in New Orleans for three days. Vibrio vulnificus was found in his blood, and he died the next day. 

That particular type of bacteria is known to cause necrotizing fasciitis, a gruesome condition commonly known as flesh-eating bacteria. 

Fortunately, Wednesday's flood seemed to be freshwater, said experts, and Vibrio only grows in brackish water.

Mississippi River will rise to top of lowest New Orleans levees as possible hurricane nears, experts say

Via nola.com: Mississippi River will rise to top of lowest New Orleans levees as possible hurricane nears, experts say. Excerpt:

South Louisiana should brace for the effects of a storm expected to be named Hurricane Barry by the time it makes landfall with maximum winds of 85 mph along the state’s southwestern coastline Saturday, the National Hurricane Center warned Wednesday.  

While the storm's winds are expected to reach only Category 1 status, forecasters believe it will pack a punch in the form of massive rainfall and formidable storm surge. 

On Wednesday morning, forecasters increased to 20 feet their estimate of how high the Mississippi River will rise at the Carrollton Gauge in New Orleans, on Saturday. That higher crest would result from several feet of storm surge, compounding already-high river levels from Midwest flooding. 

The official flood stage in New Orleans is 17 feet, but a combination of recently elevated earthen levees and floodwalls on both sides of the river in the New Orleans area protect most locations to water heights of between 20 and 22 feet. 

However, some levee segments along both the east and west banks could be as low as 18 feet. Thus, a 20-foot river height could cause overtopping at some of those locations, something that has never happened in the city's modern history.

Based on the National Hurricane Center’s prediction of a Category 1 hurricane, Jeffrey Graschel, a hydrologist with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell, said the river will rise between 3 and 5 feet above its present elevation. The higher levels are expected near the mouth of the river, in Plaquemines Parish.  

But the surge will make itself felt as far away as Baton Rouge, where the water level is expected to rise about 10 inches by Saturday, he said.

US: New Orleans under water

You'd better follow NOLA.com for the next few days. It's not the magnificent Times-Picayune that covered Katrina, but it's right on the scene for a sequence of disasters: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is likely to hit Louisiana as Hurricane Barry, waterspouts are spinning in the streets of flooded New Orleans, and the Mississippi is reported to be cresting at 20 feet—the height of the levees.

You'd also be wise to follow NWS New Orleans, which is currently reporting a flash flood emergency for Jefferson Parish.

Three southwest Japan cities order 800,000 to evacuate over rain, landslide danger

Via The Mainichi: 3 southwest Japan cities order 800,000 to evacuate over rain, landslide danger. 

Three Kagoshima Prefecture cities including the capital issued emergency evacuation orders for their entire populations totaling 798,170 people on July 3 as torrential rain continues to hammer the region, raising the risk of landslides.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) held an emergency press conference on the morning of July 3, calling on people to evacuate quickly.  

"Downpours often make it difficult to leave. Please be aware of the need to protect your own lives, and evacuate as soon as possible without waiting for a special warning to be issued."  

The Kagoshima Municipal Government issued an emergency evacuation order for all of its 594,943 residents in 275,287 households due to torrential downpours expected to last through the late morning of July 4, and warned that life-threatening landslides are imminent. The southwestern Japan city specifically called on residents in areas close to cliffs, rivers and other dangerous areas to immediately flee to safer places. 

The city opened another 90 evacuation centers on July 3 in addition to shelters it had already set up, and decided to provide food and other basic supplies to evacuees.  

The Kirishima Municipal Government also issued an evacuation order to all of its 125,868 residents in 61,395 households at 11:10 a.m. According to the city, small-scale landslides have occurred in different parts of the city, forcing a total of 110 residents in 69 households to evacuate by 11:30 a.m. 

The neighboring city of Aira issued an evacuation order to all of its 77,359 residents in 36,801 households soon after Kirishima, at 11:30 a.m.  

The downpours forced Kyushu Railway Co. (JR Kyushu) on July 3 to halt its Kirishima limited express services between Miyazaki and Kagoshima-chuo stations; Ibusuki no Tamatebako between Kagoshima-chuo and Ibusuki stations; Isaburo/Shinpei between Kumamoto and Hitoyoshi stations and Kumamoto and Yoshimatsu stations; and Kawasemi Yamasemi between Kumamoto and Hitoyoshi stations. It also suspended or reduced local train services. 

According to the JMA, rainfall until 4 a.m. on July 3 stood at 835 millimeters in the city of Ebino, Miyazaki Prefecture, also in southwestern Japan, and 631.5 millimeters in the city of Satsumasendai in neighboring Kagoshima Prefecture. 

Rainfall during the 24-hour period up to shortly past 9 a.m. came to 147 millimeters in the city of Kanoya, Kagoshima Prefecture, 143 millimeters in the city of Miyakonojo, Miyazaki Prefecture, and 116 millimeters in Ebino.

The Zika virus is still a threat. Here’s what experts know

Via The New York Times: The Zika Virus Is Still a Threat. Here’s What Experts Know. Excerpt:

SÃO PAULO, Brazil — Remember Zika? 

With measles and Ebola grabbing headlines, it is easy to forget the health panic of 2016, when Zika was linked to severe birth defects in thousands of Brazilian newborns whose mothers were infected while pregnant, striking fear across the country and much of the Americas. 

As health officials struggled to halt its spread, the virus galloped through Latin America and the Caribbean that spring and summer and eventually reached the United States, sickening more than 200 people in Florida and Texas and prompting countless travelers to cancel vacations in the tropics.  

Then, seemingly overnight, the epidemic evaporated and public attention moved on. 

 But Zika, it turns out, did not vanish.  

“Zika has completely fallen off the radar, but the lack of media attention doesn’t mean it’s disappeared,” said Dr. Karin Nielson, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at U.C.L.A. who studies Zika’s impact in Brazil. “In some ways, the situation is a bit more dangerous because people aren’t aware of it.”

The virus, which is mostly spread by mosquitoes but also through sex with an infected person, is still circulating in Brazil and other countries that were at the center of the epidemic, and two years ago the same strain from the Americas arrived in continental Africa for the first time. That strain, researchers recently discovered, had been causing birth defects in Asia long before the Zika epidemic of 2016. 

Another concern is over places where the mosquito that spreads the virus — the female Aedes aegypti — is endemic but have so far been spared locally transmitted cases of Zika. On Tuesday, the World Health Organization issued a report on Zika that listed 61 such countries, among them densely populated behemoths like China, Egypt and Pakistan as well as much of Africa.

Even Brazil remains vulnerable: The 2016 epidemic largely spared the country’s south and most notably São Paulo, its biggest city. Warming temperatures associated with climate change are expected to expand the range of Aedes, according to a recent study, putting tens of millions more people at risk for Zika and other mosquito-borne diseases. 

“The next outbreak is not a matter of if, but when,” said Dr. Ernesto T.A. Marques, a public health researcher at The Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Rio de Janeiro who is also an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh.

Death toll from acute encephalitis in east Indian town rises to 129 children

Via Thompson Reuters: Death toll from acute encephalitis in east Indian town rises to 129 children. 

NEW DELHI, June 23 (Reuters) - At least 129 children have now died of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (AES) in the town of Muzaffarpur in the eastern Indian state of Bihar since an outbreak earlier this month, a medical official said on Sunday. 

The death toll from AES, a fever that affects the central nervous system, has risen from 97 reported last Monday and medical and government officials are facing mounting criticism for struggling to contain the crisis in the town of nearly 350,000 people. 

AES, known as 'brain fever' is caused by any one of a number of viruses. Symptoms include high fever, vomiting and, in severe cases, seizures, paralysis and coma. Infants and elderly people are particularly vulnerable.  

"I received my last update in the afternoon and according to the latest report that I have, 129 children have died so far," Shailesh Prasad Singh, the top state medical official in Muzaffarpur told Reuters by phone. The town lies about 80 km (50 miles) from Patna, the state capital. 

The precise causes of AES are not known, though a majority of medical professionals say it is linked to a ferocious heat-wave. 

Some studies have blamed toxins in lychees, a fruit grown in abundance in orchards around Muzaffarpur. But many families told Reuters last week that their children had not eaten them in recent weeks. 

Singh said a team of experts, including doctors, paramedics and other government officials were working "round the clock" to contain the spread of AES, which killed more than 350 children in a previous outbreak in Bihar in 2014.  

Doctors from other parts of the country had been dispatched to Muzaffarpur to help staff at the Sri Krishna Medical College Hospital which had to evict a group of sick inmates from a ward to accommodate the surge in AES patients. Most of the children who died were being treated at the hospital.  

Nearly half of all children in Muzaffarpur are underweight, and a similar number are stunted, making them vulnerable to AES, which grips the town almost every year when summer temperatures surge. 

As the death toll mounts, both the Bihar and the federal governments have come under criticism for their inability to save children, and doctors and government officials have faced angry protests. 

On Sunday, the Bihar government suspended a doctor in Muzaffarpur for dereliction of duties, news agency ANI, a Reuters affiliate, said. 

India's Federal Health and Family Welfare Minister Harsh Vardhan, who is himself a doctor, said last week that health officials have finalised plans for construction of a 100-bed paediatric intensive care unit in Muzaffarpur, but gave no timeframe for when it would be built.

The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Credit: Nature Microbiology

Via Nature Microbiology: The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue. The abstract and then another link:

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. 

We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. 

This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.

See also this New York Times report on the study.

Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis

Via bioRxiv: Rainfall and other meteorological factors as drivers of urban transmission of leptospirosis. The abstract: 

Background 

Leptospirosis is an important public health problem affecting vulnerable urban slum populations in developing country settings. However, the complex interaction of meteorological factors driving the temporal trends of leptospirosis remain incompletely understood. 

Methods and findings 

From 1996 to 2010, we investigated the association between the weekly incidence of leptospirosis and climatic variables in the city of Salvador, Brazil by using a dynamic generalized linear model that accounted for time lags, overall trend and seasonal variation. Our model showed an increase of leptospirosis cases associated with rainfall, lower temperature and higher humidity. 

There was a lag of one-to-two weeks between weekly values for significant meteorological variables and leptospirosis incidence. Independent of the season, a weekly cumulative rainfall of 20 mm increased the risk of the leptospirosis by 10% compared to a week without rain. 

Finally, over the 14 year study period the incidence of leptospirosis decreased significantly by four fold (12.8 versus 3.6 per 100,000 people), independently of variations in climate. 

Conclusions

Strategies to control leptospirosis should focus on avoiding contact with contaminated sources of Leptospira as well as on increasing awareness in the population and health professionals within the short time window after both low-level and extreme rainfall events. Increased leptospirosis incidence was restricted to one-to-two weeks after those events, suggesting that infectious Leptospira survival may be limited to short time intervals.