H5N1

China says spread of Covid ‘impossible’ to track as infections soar in Beijing

Via The Guardian: China says spread of Covid ‘impossible’ to track as infections soar in Beijing. Excerpt:

The spread of Covid-19 in China is now “impossible” to track, the country’s health authorities have said, announcing they have stopped recording asymptomatic cases in their daily tallies.  

The admission comes amid soaring presentations to hospitals and clinics as Covid-19 spreads rapidly through the population in the wake of the sudden removal of strict pandemic measures. Authorities have urged people not to seek emergency healthcare unless necessary, and announced the rollout of second boosters to elderly and vulnerable people.  

China’s government abruptly ended the long-running and strict zero-Covid policy last week, rolling back measures including travel restrictions and lockdowns. Health authorities also ended the mass testing drives and compulsory regular testing which were pillars of the policy. As a result, official daily reports have become an increasingly inaccurate measure of the outbreak.

On Tuesday the national health commission (NHC) announced it would no longer report asymptomatic cases, which for most of the pandemic have been reported as a separate – and usually much larger – cohort.  

“Many asymptomatic patients no longer participate in nucleic acid testing,” the NHC said. “It is impossible to accurately grasp the actual number of asymptomatic infections.”  

The commission officially reported just 2,291 symptomatic cases across China on Tuesday, at odds with reports from residents and health services of rampant infections – particularly in the capital Beijing.  

Vice-premier Sun Chunlan earlier said Beijing’s new infections were “rapidly growing”, according to state media.  

Official state media outlet China Daily reported Beijing had seen a more than six-fold increase in presentations to hospitals in the last week, and 16 times more to fever clinics.  

Li Ang, deputy director of Beijing Municipal Health Commission, told media that on 9 December there were 31,000 calls to emergency medical services, six times more than average.  

Anecdotally, residents are describing many friends, families, and co-workers falling ill with Covid, with one telling the Guardian it had “ripped through” the city. Employees at businesses, schools and embassies have described huge numbers of colleagues being home sick with the virus, or caring for family members. James Zimmerman, a Beijing-based lawyer, said on Twitter that 90% of people from his Beijing office had Covid.  

“Some obviously miserable. Many nursing kids/parents at home. Our ‘work at home’ policy is now ‘work at home if you’re well enough’. This thing came on like a runaway freight train,” he said.

Tonga: Volcanic eruption and tsunami

Via ReliefWeb, a UNICEF news release: Tonga: Volcanic Eruption and Tsunami - Jan 2022. Several others are available on the website. Excerpt:

After weeks of volcanic activity emitting ash, the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano in Tonga erupted violently on 15 January. The eruption is said to be one of the biggest in Tonga in the last 30 years, with satellite imagery indicating a 5 km wide plume of ash, steam, and gas, rising approximately 20 km above the volcano. 

The volcanic eruption generated a 1.2-metre tsunami that crashed ashore in coastal areas of Tonga’s capital, Nuku’alofa. The estimated population within 100 km of the volcano is 76,000 people. [...]  

Tonga has been blanketed by 1-2 cm of volcanic ash, affecting the majority of the country and impacting on water and food supplies. Air quality is also of concern. Power has been disrupted, and communications with Tonga are a challenge as regular phone lines are down, the internet cable from Fiji to Tonga seems to have been damaged, and satellite phones are only working intermittently.  

Alert level 4 remains active for the volcano, meaning that eruption hazards are confined to areas near or around the volcano. 

Tsunami advisory for Notification Zones A, B, C & D: Volcanic eruption near the Tonga Islands. January 15, 2022

Via EmergencyInfoBC: Tsunami Advisory for Notification Zones A, B, C & D: Volcanic Eruption near the Tonga Islands. January 15, 2022. Excerpt:

A volcanic eruption has occurred near the Tonga Islands resulting in a Tsunami Advisory for the north coast and Haida Gwaii, the central coast and northeast Vancouver Island, the outer west coast of Vancouver Island, the Juan de Fuca Strait coast.  

Preliminary Parameters  

The following parameters are based on a rapid preliminary assessment and changes may occur.  

• Event: Volcanic Eruption  

• Depth: 1 mile  

• Location: Tonga Islands  

• Origin Time: 2027  PST Jan 14 2022  

• Coordinates: 20.5 South 175.4 West  

Notification Zones:  

This Tsunami Advisory includes the following zones of coastal British Columbia:  

• Zone A: the North Coast and Haida Gwaii.  

• Zone B: the Central Coast and Northeast Vancouver Island Coast, including Kitimat, Bella Coola and Port Hardy.  

• Zone C: the Outer West Coast of Vancouver Island from Cape Scott to Port Renfrew.  

• Zone D: the Juan de Fuca Strait from Jordan River to Greater Victoria, including the Saanich Peninsula.  

Forecast of Wave Activity Arrival Times:  

• Langara: 0830  PST Jan 15  

• Tofino: 0850  PST Jan 15  

Recommended Actions:  

People in coastal areas that are at risk are advised to stay away from the shoreline and heed instructions from local authorities. If you are in a tsunami advisory area:  

• Do not go to the shore to observe the tsunami.  

• Move out of the water, off the beach, and away from harbours, marinas, breakwaters, bays and inlets.  

• Be alert to and follow instructions from your local emergency officials because they may have more detailed or specific information for your location.  

• Do not return to the coast until local emergency officials indicate it is safe to do so.  

• Boat operators: where time and conditions permit, move your boat out to sea to a depth of at least 180 feet; if at sea avoid entering shallow water, harbors, marinas, bays, and inlets to avoid floating and submerged debris and strong currents.

Storm surge from Ida could overtop some West Bank levees; officials say they will hold

Via nola.com: Storm surge from Ida could overtop some West Bank levees; officials say they will hold. Excerpt:

Hurricane Ida could bring up to 15 feet of storm surge to parts of the west bank of Jefferson Parish, threatening to push water over the tops of the levees that shield those areas. 

If that National Hurricane Center forecast proves true, it would be the first time the levees have been overtopped since the post-Hurricane Katrina upgrades to the system that surrounds much of the metro area. 

But officials said while some localized flooding is possible and urged residents to take precautions, they also stressed that the new barriers are designed for exactly this scenario and are expected to be able to withstand the onslaught. 

Sixteen years ago on Sunday, Katrina swept ashore carrying a deadly storm surge that toppled parts of the New Orleans-area levee system. But the $14.5 billion collection of levees, floodwalls, pumps and gates that has replaced it and now rings parts of New Orleans, Jefferson and St. Bernard parishes represents a radical improvement over the area's previous protections. 

While critics and some government officials have called for higher and more substantial barriers than have been built in recent years, officials with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, levee authorities and local governments  said that the levee system is capable of handling the expected surge that the New Orleans area will see from Ida. 

“This is a very differently protected city than it was 16 years ago” said Ramsey Green, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell’s deputy chief administrative officer for infrastructure. 

Built into the new system is the idea that the levees would reduce the risk of a storm surge – not provide an impossible-to-guarantee level of unlimited protection – and that even when overmatched with high water, the system's levees would still be left standing. 

“People need to know if they’re in an area that could get this surge, they need to be prepared, they need to understand that this is exactly what this system was designed to do,” said Ricky Boyett, a spokesperson for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in New Orleans. 

The levees' height is aimed at blocking overtopping from water levels that have a 1 percent chance of occurring in any year, a so-called 100-year event. Worst-case surge created by a Category 4 hurricane striking the area around New Orleans would be greater than such an event.

Tropical Cyclone Yasa approaches Fiji

Google Maps

Via ReliefWeb: Tropical Cyclone Yasa - Dec 2020.

The newly formed Tropical Cyclone YASA is moving in the South Pacific Ocean, between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands...On 14-16 December, YASA is forecast to strengthen, as it moves clockwise between Vanuatu and Fiji islands. Then it is expected to move south-east, reaching Viti Levu island (Fiji) on 18 December, with maximum sustained wind between 170-200 km/h. A strong wind warning has been issued for Rotuma island (northern Fiji), and for the central and southern coastal Vanuatu. A flash flood warning is in effect for northern Vanua Levu (Fiji). (ECHO, 14 Dec 2020) 

Tropical cyclone YASA is strengthening as it continues clockwise in the South Pacific Ocean, between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands....YASA is forecast to move south-east, passing between Viti Levu and Vanua Levu Islands (Fiji) on 17 December, with maximum sustained wind up to 215 km/h. After that, it will cross the Eastern Division islands on 18 December. (ECHO, 15 Dec 2020) 

Tropical cyclone YASA is forecast to move south-east, approaching Vanua Levu Island on the morning of 17 December, with maximum sustained wind up to 220-230 km/h. After that, it will move southward, crossing the Eastern Division Islands on 17-18 December and passing 415 km east of Tongatapu Island (Tonga) on 19 December. According to media reports, the authorities set-up 1,037 evacuation centres across Central, Northern and Western Divisions. (ECHO, 16 Dec 2020)  

TC Yasa will make landfall on 17 Dec around 8pm Fiji time on Vanua Levu island (population 135,961) and pass over many other smaller islands in the Fiji island group as a Cat 5 storm. According to analysis by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), approximately 73,000 people are potentially exposed to widespread wind damage. Severe impact for outlying areas on Eastern coast of Vanua Levu in particular Bua Province, is expected. There is a 4pm curfew in place for the whole country and all public transport is stopped. (OCHA, 17 Dec 2020)

Nicaragua, Honduras - Hurricane ETA

Google Maps

Via ReliefWeb: Nicaragua, Honduras - Hurricane ETA (GDACS, NOAA, Government of Nicaragua, SINAPRED, media) (ECHO Daily Flash of 03 November 2020).

• The new Hurricane ETA is moving west over the Caribbean Sea towards the eastern coast of northern Nicaragua. On 3 November, its center was located approximately 60 km east of Puerto Cabezas City (RACCN, northern Nicaragua), and 120 km south-east of Nicaragua/Honduras border, with maximum sustained wind of 240 km/h (Category 4 Hurricane). 

• ETA may become a Category 5 Hurricane before making landfall and it is expected to reach the coast of southern Puerto Cabezas in the afternoon of 3 November. Heavy rainfall, high storm surge, and strong wind are forecast over northern Nicaragua.  

• Evacuation orders have been issued for coastal areas in Nicaragua and Honduras, while in Nicaragua, red alerts have been declared for the Autonomous Region of the Northern Caribbean and the Mining Triangle.  

• A hurricane warning is in effect for coastal areas from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to the central coast of Nicaragua. A tropical storm warning has been issued for coastal areas from central Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

Columbia: 130,000-210,000 avoidable COVID-19 deaths—and counting—in the US

A new report from the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University: “130,000 – 210,000 AVOIDABLE COVID-19 DEATHS –
AND COUNTING – IN THE U.S.” The overview:

This report looks at the staggering and disproportionate nature of COVID-19 fatalities in the United States, which now ranks first in the world in the total number of fatalities, to estimate how many deaths were “avoidable.” With more than 217,000 lives lost[as of October 17], and a proportional mortality rate twice that of neighboring Canada and more than fifty times that of Japan -- a country with a much older population than the U.S. – the United States has turned a global crisis into a devastating tragedy.

Through comparative analysis and applying proportional mortality rates, we estimate that at least 130,000 deaths and perhaps as many as 210,000 could have been avoided with earlier policy interventions and more robust federal coordination and leadership.

Even with the dramatic recent appearance of new COVID-19 waves globally, the abject failures of U.S. government policies and crisis messaging persist. U.S. fatalities have remained disproportionately high throughout the pandemic when compared to even other high-mortality countries.

The inability of the U.S. to mitigate the pandemic is especially stark when contrasted with the response of high-income nations, such as South Korea, Japan, Australia, Germany, France, and Canada, as well as low- and middle-income countries as varied as Thailand, Pakistan, Honduras, and Malaysia. All of these nations have had greater success in protecting their populations from the impact of the coronavirus.

Given the United States’ unique social and political realities, we recognize that it might have been particularly challenging to implement the same caliber of response as South Korea and Japan, both of which maintain centralized unitary governments. Nonetheless, the range of “avoidable deaths” outlined above stems from data illustrating how some of the best performing nations have achieved much greater results in protecting their populations.

LA wildfires smoke advisories continue; long-term exposure a concern

Via the Los Angeles Times: L.A. smoke advisories continue; long-term exposure a concern. Excerpt:

Smoke from the Bobcat and El Dorado fires continues to blanket Southern California, prompting the South Coast Air Quality Management District to issue its 10th straight day of advisories. 

Some residents of Los Angeles County, growing weary of the thick, hazy air, say they’re at wit’s end.  

“You can barely see to the end of the block,” Pasadena resident Stewart Pajares said Wednesday.  

Pajares said he felt burning in his eyes and lungs, and when asked what concerned him most about the region’s poor air quality, he said, “breathing.” 

Onshore winds will probably begin moving smoke out of the South Coast air basin Wednesday afternoon, the South Coast AQMD said, but “modest smoke impacts” from Northern and Central California fires are likely to persist. Current air quality readings are still lingering in the 150-200 range, which is considered unhealthy by the Environmental Protection Agency. 

EPA officials said they are working hard to keep people informed about the risks of the poor air.  

“We do need to learn to live with smoke,” EPA air resource advisor Katie Stewart said. “And it’s unfortunate, but we need to be smoke-ready every year.”  

Stewart said home improvements such as caulking windows and replacing worn-out weather stripping can help prevent smoke and poor air from entering houses. 

She also said residents with HVAC systems can set the air to circulate so it’s not being pulled in from outside, and recommended that people without those systems use portable air filters to create “clean air shelters” in one or two rooms of their homes.  

But after several days of smoky air, such filters are increasingly tough to come by: Local hardware stores have seen a run on customers looking for air purifiers. 

“We have some left,” said Rosie Gonzalez of Virgil Hardware in Glendale, “but it’s down to a really limited quantity.” 

Financial factors are also a challenge. Portable air filters — if you can get your hands on one — typically run between $100 and $150, Stewart said. That has left many low-income residents out of luck, particularly since the city’s smoke relief centers opened for only one day last week and haven’t reopened since.

AQI on Tuesday: Vancouver 171 (unhealthy); Portland 447 (hazardous)

We had a little rain last night, and it seems to have washed some of the smoke out of the air. But our air is still bad:

Meanwhile it continues to be worse than bad in Portland, according to AQI Portland Postal Bldg., Oregon, USA Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index.

I hope the health services on the west coast have the time and resources to track morbidity and mortality from wildfire smoke. This will happen again.

AQI on Monday morning: Vancouver 228 (very unhealthy); Portland 468 (hazardous)

I just checked the AQI for Vancouver Second Narrows, which is not far from where I live, and it's the worst I've ever seen it:

Then I checked Portland Postal Bldg., Oregon, USA Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index, and it's far worse than ours:

The public health consequences for the whole west coast, Canada and the US alike, are going to be serious.