H5N1

Haiti: Tropical Storm Laura - Situation Report No. 1, as of 22 August 2020

Via ReliefWeb, an OCHA report: Haiti: Tropical Storm Laura - Situation Report No. 1, As of 22 August 2020. Excerpt, with my bolding:

This report is produced by OCHA Haiti in collaboration with humanitarian partners. It covers the situation on 22 August. The next report will be issued on or around 23 August. 

HIGHLIGHTS 

• Tropical Storm Laura is expected to reach Haiti on Saturday evening, 22 August, moving from the Nord-Est department through the Artibonite and the Nord-Ouest departments. 

• Heavy rains and strong winds are expected during the night and throughout Sunday, with a high likelihood of flash floods, floods and landslides. An estimated 2 million people may be affected by heavy rains. 

• The General Directorate for Civil Protection (DGPC) has activated the National Disaster and Risk Management Plan with alert level of ‘orange’. 

• Humanitarian partners are preparing to respond to potential impacts, under the leadership of the Government of Haiti. 

SITUATION OVERVIEW 

Tropical Storm Laura is expected to reach Haiti on Saturday evening, 22 August, bringing heavy rains up to 200 mm in some parts of the country during the night and throughout Sunday with gusts of wind that my reach up to 60 km/h. The storm is forecast to enter Haiti through the Nord-Est department, and exit by the Nord-Ouest department after passing through the Artibonite department. 

According to the Haitian Hydrometeorological Unit (UHM), the departments most at risk of heavy rainfall are the Sud-Est and North-Ouest. According to analysis by OCHA, the Ouest and Sud departments and parts of the Artibonite department may also be at high risk (see map above). Approximately 2 million people are expected to be affected by heavy rainfall. The storm is currently moving at a speed of 33 km/h, and should pass the Haitian territory relatively quickly. Nevertheless, there is a high likelihood of flash floods, floods and landslides, including in urban areas. 

PREPAREDNESS AND HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE 

On Friday, 21 August, the Haitian General Directorate of Civil Protection (DGPC) and the Permanent Secretariat for the Disaster and Risk Management (SPGRD), together with the UHM, have activated the national disaster and risk management plan (Plan National de Gestion des Risques et des Désastres) with alert level of ‘orange’. The National Emergency Operations Centre (COUN)has also been activated and met virtually on Friday and Saturday. 

The DGPC has activated its coordination structures and alerted it’s teams across the country. The COUN’s Information Management Unit, in collaboration with OCHA, is monitoring the situation and is on standby to receive, consolidate and analyse reports on the potential impact of the storm. Departmental health focal points have also been alerted and the prepositioning of essential medical supplies is underway.  

The DGCP has alerted citizens in areas at-risk have through SMS and social media and will continue to share information and updates with the public. The DGCP will also contact mobile providers to ensure the continuity of communication networks during the passage of the storm.  

Due to dangerous sea conditions, the Haitian Maritime and Navigation Services (SEMANAH), in collaboration with the UHM, announced the temporary suspension of all coastal shipping operations throughout the country until further notice. To ensure compliance, the Haitian National Police (PNH) has been requested to monitor and enforce the directive. The possible restriction of air traffic is also under discussion with the Ministry of Public Works. 

The decision to open emergency shelters and evacuate the population will be considered at a later stage, depending on the evolution of the situation. The Ministry of Education is currently considering the possible closure of schools, which serve as emergency shelters. Emergency Evacuation Coordinators are on standby across the country, and are also charged with overseeing measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in emergency shelters (such as masks and hand-washing facilities).

North Atlantic hurricane season prediction: 20 named storms

Via Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center: North Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction. Excerpt:

ESSC scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Daniel J. Brouillette and alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November. 

The prediction is for 19.8 +/- 4.4 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 15 and 24 storms, with a best estimate of 20 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes). 

The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.1 °C in early to mid-April 2020 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2020 hurricane season, (b) the development of mild El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-negative conditions by boreal late summer and early fall 2020 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2020), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in boreal fall/winter 2020-2021.  

If no La Niña develops, then the prediction will be slightly lower: 18.3 +/- 4.3 storms (range of 14-23 storms, with a best guess of 19). 

Using an alternative model that uses "relative" MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a considerably lower prediction (13.6 +/- 3.7 total named storms). This alternative model also includes mild ENSO-negative conditions.

Typhoon Hagibis with heaviest rain in years hits Tokyo, killing 2

Via The Mainichi: Typhoon Hagibis with heaviest rain in years hits Tokyo, killing 2. Excerpt:

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- A massive typhoon, bringing potentially the heaviest downpours in six decades, lashed the Tokyo metropolitan area on Saturday, killing at least two people and injuring many others, while landslides occurred and rivers overflowed.

Japan's weather agency issued an unprecedented emergency warning over Typhoon Hagibis for Tokyo and nearby regions, saying heavy rain "with a level of intensity observed only once every few decades" was likely. 

Over 6 million people across Japan's main island of Honshu were advised to evacuate, with train operators suspending most services and airports shut down in the metropolitan and surrounding areas. 

Typhoon Hagibis, meaning "swift" in the Philippine language Tagalog, could dump amounts of rain not seen since a deadly typhoon in 1958, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. 

It is the first time the agency has issued the warning, the highest on a one-to-five scale, for Tokyo and the prefectures of Gunma, Saitama, Kanagawa, Yamanashi, Nagano, Shizuoka, Niigata and Fukushima. 

The agency also expanded the coverage of the heavy rain warning to three other prefectures -- Miyagi, Ibaraki and Tochigi.  

Japanese authorities warned that the typhoon is causing water levels in a number of rivers to rise dangerously and released water from some dams. 

Over 1,000 millimeters of rain was observed in Hakone, a popular hot spring resort, located about 80 kilometers southwest of Tokyo, since Thursday, according to the agency.  

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stayed on alert at his official residence and a team of senior officials gathered up-to-date information at an adjacent office.  

As of 11 p.m., about 10 rivers, including Tama in Tokyo's Setagaya Ward and Chikuma in Nagano Prefecture, had overflowed, according to local governments.

Live updates on Hagibis are available at The Japan Times.

PAHO issues $3.5 million donor appeal for humanitarian health response in the Bahamas

A news release from PAHO: PAHO issues $3.5 million donor appeal for humanitarian health response in the Bahamas. Once again, the first response to a public health disaster is to beg for money:

Nassau, Bahamas, Sept. 8, 2019 (PAHO)—The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) is requesting an initial US $3.5 million from donors to cover short-term health care and other needs for the population in the Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian.

The devastating category 5 storm made landfall exactly one week ago in northwest Bahamas, and severely affected the health sector, with significant destruction of equipment and medical supplies and electrical and water supplies in Abaco and Grand Bahama. Some 73,000 persons were affected by the storm, and there are hundreds of people in shelters in the disaster zone. While 43 deaths have been officially reported thus far, mass casualty numbers are expected to rise significantly as more areas become accessible and search and rescue operations continue.   

Dr. Ciro Ugarte, PAHO’s Director of Health Emergencies, said, “Our priority concerns are to restore access to essential health services and continued medical care delivery, to ensure water quality in affected communities and health facilities, and to restore proper hygiene and sanitation.” He said adequate waste management and control of disease-causing vectors such as mosquitoes is key, along with increasing epidemiological surveillance to support early detection and timely management of disease outbreaks. 

The $3.5 million being requested by PAHO is a preliminary estimate to cover short- term healthcare, water and sanitation, epidemiological surveillance and vector-control needs in the Bahamian Islands most affected by Hurricane Dorian for the next six months, Dr. Ugarte said, adding that needs will likely increase as damage assessments are completed. 

PAHO/WHO activated its emergency teams for surge capacity and had pre-deployed Rapid Response Team experts to the Bahamas before Hurricane Dorian struck to support health authorities and humanitarian response as needs were identified. So far, 14 PAHO experts are in the disaster zone to provide surge capacity in logistics, civil and military coordination, information management, epidemiological surveillance, communications, and coordination.

Dr. Ugarte said PAHO is acting quickly to support the Bahamas Ministry of Health in the response, setting up an Incident Management system and co-leading the health cluster with the national health authorities to coordinate health and humanitarian support to the affected population.

The funding requests includes $1.3 million to restore healthcare delivery in affected areas, $500,000 for surveillance to detect and manage disease outbreaks, $800,000 for safe access to water, emergency sanitation and control of disease vectors, and well as $671,000 to coordinate humanitarian assistance and manage information to address the most urgent humanitarian needs.

Hurricane Dorian: Storm death toll climbs to seven

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Via The Nassau Guardian: Storm death toll climbs to seven. Excerpt:

Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis said last night that seven people are now confirmed dead as a result of the passage of Hurricane Dorian and more deaths are likely to be discovered in the coming days. 

Minnis, who spoke during a press conference at the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) headquarters, said parts of Abaco are completely decimated because of Dorian, which struck that island as a Category 5 storm with winds of 185 miles per hour. 

“Five deaths are confirmed,” Minnis said. “There may be additional deaths that we can expect. Of the 25 individuals that were transported to New Providence, two have already succumbed. That would take the number of deaths to seven. “We can expect more deaths.” 

Minnis said he is praying for the victims’ families.

Health Minister Dr. Duane Sands later said that, “One of the persons that was injured was a 71-year-old with a head injury who subsequently succumbed.  

“Another had no obvious injury, a 39-year-old, but had profound metabolic challenges and also passed away.” 

The prime minister and a team of government officials, including opposition leader Philip Brave Davis, did a flyby of the Abacos yesterday, courtesy of the U.S. Coast Guard. 

One government minister opined that Abaco looked like “Armageddon” had come. 

“Parts of Abaco are decimated,” Minnis said. “There is severe flooding. There is severe flooding damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure. 

“The southern aspect of Abaco has suffered less devastation than the north. The Sandy Point area and progressing north has not suffered as much devastation that was seen in the Marsh Harbour vicinity. The international airport on Abaco is under water. The runway is currently flooded. In fact, the area around the airport now looks like a lake.  

“Marsh Harbour has suffered in excess of 60 percent of damage to the homes. The Mudd as we know it has been completely destroyed or decimated.” 

The Mudd is a Haitian shantytown on the island.

PAHO: Bahamas health officials respond to Hurricane Dorian

PAHO has published Bahamas Health Officials Respond to Hurricane Dorian with PAHO’s support. Excerpt:

Nassau, Bahamas, Sept. 3, 2019— A Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) team is working closely with health authorities in the Bahamas to support their response to Hurricane Dorian, which has damaged health facilities and flooded hospitals on Abaco islands and Grand Bahama island. 

 Prior to the hurricane, the PAHO/WHO country office contributed to the Ministry of Health’s preparedness and response planning. PAHO also pre-positioned experts from its sub-regional office in Barbados to assist the country in on-site assessments of Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) and health infrastructure and facilities needs. 

Additional support on logistics, civil and military coordination, information management, surveillance, and coordination are expected to arrive in the next 24 hours to work with counterparts in the country.  

A Rapid Assessment is crucial to assist the health ministry in the implementation of urgent life-saving interventions, said Dr. Ciro Ugarte, director of PAHO’s Health Emergencies Department. 

Hurricane Dorian struck the Abaco islands most severely, and significant damage to health infrastructure is likely, although communications are currently cut, and the island cannot be reached. 

Some 400 persons sought shelter at the clinic in Marsh Harbour on Abaco, and initial reports of deaths and injuries have not yet been confirmed. In Grand Bahama, Dorian stalled over the island with intense rainfall, 165 mph winds and 15-20 feet of storm surges. Reports indicate people are stranded in flooded buildings. 

The Ministry of Health (MoH) informed that at least 20 critical patients were evacuated from Abaco to the Princess Margaret Hospital by the Royal Bahamas Defense Forces. 

Health personnel from New Providence and other unaffected Family Islands are on stand-by to be deployed to Abaco and Grand Bahamas to replace exhausted health care professionals. The MoH is determining what additional medical teams need to be deployed to the affected islands and will decide on deployments according to the needs on the affected islands. 

On Grand Bahama Island, Rand Memorial Hospital has 70 nurses, 3 emergency physicians and senior health officers on standby for medical needs on other islands, and the Ministry of Health is setting up a rotating system for physicians and nurses to provide support to Marsh Harbour Clinic, once Abaco is deemed safe.   

Extensive flooding in both affected islands, damage to the Rand Memorial Hospital in Freeport, Grand Bahama, displacement of persons as a result of property damage or loss and psychological trauma of the population could bring additional public health challenges.

Hurricane Dorian: ‘Complete devastation’

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Via The Nassau Guardian: ‘Complete devastation’.

Marsh Harbour is an image of “complete devastation”, said one resident who had to flee her home as it was being ripped apart by the strongest hurricane ever to hit the island nation. 

Hurricane Dorian left catastrophic damage in its wake as it crept across Abaco.  

Cindy Russell, a resident of Marsh Harbour, said she had no words to describe the ruin that Dorian inflicted on the community that she no longer recognizes.  

“It’s like we just need to be rescued and put on another island to start over again,” she said. “Complete devastation.”  

Russell and her family are currently residing in a government clinic, where she said hundreds of others have also sought shelter. 

“People are still coming,” she said yesterday. “A lot of people from Murphy Town just got out of that settlement and came to the clinic.” Russell said she made the dangerous trek to the clinic after her windows and floor started vibrating. 

She said the only thing she can still do in her house is cook. “We just came from by our house, you know, you can’t live there. We go and we cook and get clothes, and [come back].”  

Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis announced yesterday evening that there were five confirmed deaths on Abaco as a result of the storm. 

Fear and anxiety enveloped the nation as Dorian continued its trek over Grand Bahama yesterday. Across social media, people posted photos of their friends and relatives in the Abacos who had not been heard from since before the storm. 

In a Facebook group named “Abaco People Search — Hurricane Dorian”, hundreds of names were posted, but many remained unaccounted for.  

When residents began to venture out to view the aftermath, many found utter ruin. On Elbow Cay, a before and after photo of the Hope Town Harbour Lodge revealed unthinkable destruction.  

Typically picturesque old Bahamian-styled homes, suffered extensive damage to the roofs and structures. Electrical wires and fallen utility poles lined, and in some areas obstructed, the streets.  

In the harbor, docks were destroyed and boats overturned. In a video that circulated on social media, buildings on mainland Abaco were flattened. 

Personal belongings and furniture lay in heaps, mixed in with other debris. Fallen trees and power lines were scattered across the area, and boats lay in the streets, washed ashore in the storm surge.  

One man said, “This was Bayview. Bayview gone.”

Bahamas: Hurricane Dorian - Flash Update No. 1 (as of 02 September 2019)

Via ReliefWeb, OCHA has published Bahamas: Hurricane Dorian - Flash Update No. 1 (as of 02 September 2019). Click or tap through to download the full report as a PDF. The main points:

• Hurricane Dorian made landfall over northwest Bahamas on 1 September as the strongest hurricane in Bahamas’ history.  

• Dorian is currently moving westward over Grand Bahama at approximately 1 mph, practically stalling over the island and delaying the deployment of assessment teams on standby in Nassau. 

• The Prime Minister of the Bahamas has reported that five individuals have been confirmed killed as a result of Hurricane Dorian.

• Pre-impact projections based on available data suggest urgent needs in water, food, shelter and early recovery. However, many of these projections are subject to post-impact verification once the Government issues an all-clear.

Bahamas PM: This is the worst day of my life

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Via The Nassau Guardian: PM: This is the worst day of my life.

As Abaco continued to be pounded by Hurricane Dorian, a catastrophic category 5 storm, Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis cried as he described today as the “worst day of his life” and expressed hope that those who refused to evacuate will survive the storm. 

“This is probably the most sad and worst day of my life to address the Bahamian people,” he said during a press conference at the headquarters of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). 

“As a physician I’ve been trained to withstand many things, but never anything like this. 

“We’re facing a hurricane… one that we’ve never seen in the history of The Bahamas, with wind velocity as high as 180 mph, with gusts in excess of 200 mph.”  

He noted that Bahamian homes are built to withstand winds of up to 150 mph.  

“So this will put us through a test that we’ve never confronted before,” he continued, adding that storm surges are projected to be as high as 20 feet.  

“This is a deadly storm and a monster storm.” 

Minnis issued an evacuation order to residents in vulnerable areas on Friday. He pleaded with residents again on Saturday to leave their homes. He noted today that many people did not heed his warnings. 

“I can only say to them, that I hope this is not the last time they will hear my voice and may God be with them.” 

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 12:45 p.m. advisory, Dorian made landfall in Elbow Cay, Abaco, at 12:40 p.m.  

“The winds have increased to 185 mph with the minimum central pressure falling to 26.90 inches,” the advisory said. “This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents there should take immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location.” 

Minnis said the conditions in Abaco have deteriorated significantly. 

“Marsh Harbour area of Abaco parts of it [are] already underwater,” he said. “In some areas you cannot tell the difference as to the beginning of the street, versus where the ocean begins. They are being hit by the brunt of the storm.” 

Videos and photos posted to social media show several flooded communities. 

“Grand Bahama, those individuals in the western area, this is your last warning to move to the central area of Freeport,” he said.  

When asked about rescue efforts, Minnis said, “Winds of 180 mph, if I ask you tomorrow to go and rescue those people, would you go?” 

“I don’t think anybody is that fool to go there, nor would I subject their lives to that. Especially when individuals were warned repeatedly to move.” 

He said he expects teams to be in a position to move into Abaco by Wednesday.  

It is unclear how many people did not evacuate or the numbers of people that are calling for help.

Hurricane Dorian forecast: Category 5 storm targets Bahamas, Florida, and Carolinas

Via The Washington Post, which has dropped its paywall on Dorian reports: Hurricane Dorian forecast: Category 5 storm targets Bahamas, Florida, and Carolinas. Excerpt:

With peak winds of 175 mph, Hurricane Dorian is about as powerful as an Atlantic hurricane can get as the core of its strongest winds and most dangerous storm surge moves over the northwestern Bahamas. 

These winds are the strongest so far north in the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on record. Its pressure, down to 922 millibars, matches Hurricane Andrew’s when it made landfall in south Florida in 1992. 

Only six Atlantic hurricanes since 1950 have had stronger winds than Hurricane Dorian’s, three of which occurred since 2005. 

A disastrous scenario is unfolding in the northern Bahamas, where the storm’s eyewall, the ring of destructive winds around the center, approached Sunday morning. 

“The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching the Abaco Islands,” the Hurricane Center wrote in a special bulletin. “This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter." 

The Center added the combination of wind gusts up to 200 mph and a storm surge of 15 to 20 would cause “extreme destruction.” 

The storm is moving slowly toward Florida and the Southeast United States, but its exact track remains somewhat uncertain, with computer models shifting the storm slightly closer to the coast early Sunday compared with Saturday. 

Florida may miss the full fury of this severe hurricane, but dangerous storm hazards are still possible. Coastal Georgia and the Carolinas also are at risk.  

“[L]ife-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week,” the Hurricane Center wrote. 

Even while the majority of computer models predict Dorian will remain just off the Florida coast, the National Hurricane Center is urging residents not to let their guard down and to continue preparing for an “extremely dangerous” hurricane and that landfall can still not be ruled out. 

As of 9:30 a.m. Saturday, the storm was centered 25 miles east of Great Abaco in the Bahamas and was headed west at 7 mph. The storm’s peak winds are now at 175 mph, and Dorian has maintained Category 4 and now Category 5 intensity for an unusually long period.