H5N1

Hurricane Dorian updates: Storm strengthens to category 5

Via The New York Times: Hurricane Dorian Updates: Storm Strengthens to Category 5. Excerpt:

Storm reaches ‘catastrophic’ strength with 160 m.p.h. winds 

As Hurricane Dorian drew near to the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas early Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said in a bulletin that the maximum sustained winds around the eye of the storm had reached 160- miles an hour, making it a “catastrophic” storm with “devastating winds.” 

It is moving westward fairly slowly — 8 miles an hour — and would soon be moving over Great Abaco, and then continue near or over Grand Bahama later Sunday or early Monday, forecasters said. Storm surge as much of 15 to 20 feet was possible, enough to swamp many low-lying areas of the islands, and that as much as 25 inches of rain could fall before the storm passes. 

The storm is expected to turn northward, raking the coast 

Forecasters expect the storm to creep nearer to the coast of Florida through Monday and then swing northward, paralleling the mainland coast. Though it may not make landfall all week if it follows that track, its strong winds and heavy rains, storm surge and punishing surf could still have the potential to do major damage in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. 

 The National Hurricane Center posted a tropical storm watch on Sunday for the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Sebastien Inlet, meaning that storm-force winds are expected there within 36 hours. “Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible,” the center said.

People are vacationing at Disney World despite storm warnings. 

Families arrived in Orlando this weekend carrying Disney-themed suitcases, wearing Mickey Mouse ears and closely monitoring Hurricane Dorian’s path as they plowed ahead with long-planned vacations to Walt Disney World. 

The theme park complex is mostly operating normally, though its Blizzard Beach Water Park was closed as a precaution on Sunday.

Miami Beach and Miami prep for Hurricane Dorian during king tide

Via the Miami Herald: Miami Beach & Miami prep for Hurricane Dorian during King Tide. Excerpt:

When Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in Florida, current projections show the powerful storm could come ashore during one of the season’s highest tides of the year — a king tide. 

Higher tides, combined with the showers already drenching the coast, could worsen coastal flooding for what is shaping up to be a slow, wet storm. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center predicted Dorian will strengthen to a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida before slowing down just as it reaches the coast.  

If the storm does park itself offshore, it could dump rain on the region for a while. Current estimates from the NHC suggest Dorian could bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the southeast coast, with some spots seeing up to fifteen inches. 

“We understand this could be a slow-moving storm event. That concerns us. The longer it stays in our area, the more water that will accumulate,” Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez said in a Thursday morning press conference. “This hurricane is approaching us at a time when we’re experiencing king tides here. That’s making it worse.”

The National Weather Service warned Thursday that this king tide, the second of four expected for the east coast this season., could cause minor tidal inundation during high tide this weekend. Readings from Virginia Key’s tidal gauge show that this tide is already coming in up to eight inches higher than predicted.  

Sea level rise has made these annual high tides higher over the decades and dramatically driven up the stakes for municipalities struggling to adjust to climate change. By 2060, South Florida officials are planning on two feet of sea level rise. And that’s not accounting for another of climate change’s deadly impacts, stronger hurricanes.  

Although the peak of this king tide is expected on Sunday’s noon high tide, residents in low-lying Miami Beach were already reporting flooded streets on Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropical Storm Dorian: Puerto Rico is on alert for hurricane

Here we go again. Via The New York Times: Tropical Storm Dorian: Puerto Rico Is on Alert for Hurricane. Excerpt:

• The storm is expected to cross directly over Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  

• Officials say they are ready, with enough fuel and emergency supplies on hand.  

• Flash floods and blackouts are the biggest concerns. 

As Tropical Storm Dorian drew closer on Tuesday, Puerto Rico braced for the possibility that it would not just sideswipe the island but perhaps make landfall there. The authorities, acting under a state of emergency, closed schools early and prepared emergency shelter for tens of thousands of people.  

As forecasters shifted the projected path of Dorian northward and posted tropical storm warnings for all of Puerto Rico, the island’s leaders sought to assure its 3.2 million people that they would not be caught underestimating Dorian, especially after the devastation of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. 

“I am confident that the people of Puerto Rico are prepared,” Gov. Wanda Vázquez said at a news conference on Tuesday evening. “We are going to move forward.”

 Dorian is expected to strengthen over the warm waters of the Caribbean and to reach Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with its winds and rains also sweeping over the Virgin Islands and the eastern provinces of the Dominican Republic, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Even if its strongest sustained winds do not reach hurricane force, Puerto Rico could be soaked with six inches of rain or more and could experience damaging flooding, especially in the island’s central mountains.

Floodwater in New Orleans like 'toxic' stew, experts warn. Swimming in it? That's 'crazy'

Via nola.com: Floodwater in New Orleans like 'toxic' stew, experts warn. Swimming in it? That's 'crazy'. Excerpt:

On a day like Wednesday, when the New Orleans area was pounded with as much as seven inches of rain in less than three hours, it may seem like the only way past floodwater is through it. However, experts warn that wading — and especially swimming — through a flood could expose people to a stew of toxic waste and chemicals. 

One video making the rounds on social media showed someone swimming through several feet of water near Canal Street. 

 "That is crazy," said Tiong Aw, a public health microbiologist at Tulane University. "It can be dangerous and can make humans susceptible to infectious diseases and injuries."  

Other experts agreed, noting all manner of potential hazards. 

“If you’re neighboring a rural area, human and livestock waste can get into the floodwater, which can be toxic to humans,” said D.J. Sprenger, a member of Team Rubicon, a disaster response team that provides rescue and resources to areas all over the country. 

“If a residential area is flooded, medical supplies or cleaning agents can be in the water. Wild or stray animals like water snakes or rodents could be swimming in the water,” Sprenger said. “Floodwater can contain downed power lines, and the water current could be charged after a storm.”

After Hurricane Katrina hit in August 2005, the Louisiana Department of Health and New Orleans Public Response Team identified 869 cases of potential infectious disease in the weeks immediately afterward and 18 cases of Vibrio skin infections. Vibrio bacteria live in coastal waters and are more active from May through October. Five of those 18 patients died.  

One 60-year-old man arrived at a hospital with ankle wounds and diarrhea after wading through floodwater in New Orleans for three days. Vibrio vulnificus was found in his blood, and he died the next day. 

That particular type of bacteria is known to cause necrotizing fasciitis, a gruesome condition commonly known as flesh-eating bacteria. 

Fortunately, Wednesday's flood seemed to be freshwater, said experts, and Vibrio only grows in brackish water.

Mississippi River will rise to top of lowest New Orleans levees as possible hurricane nears, experts say

Via nola.com: Mississippi River will rise to top of lowest New Orleans levees as possible hurricane nears, experts say. Excerpt:

South Louisiana should brace for the effects of a storm expected to be named Hurricane Barry by the time it makes landfall with maximum winds of 85 mph along the state’s southwestern coastline Saturday, the National Hurricane Center warned Wednesday.  

While the storm's winds are expected to reach only Category 1 status, forecasters believe it will pack a punch in the form of massive rainfall and formidable storm surge. 

On Wednesday morning, forecasters increased to 20 feet their estimate of how high the Mississippi River will rise at the Carrollton Gauge in New Orleans, on Saturday. That higher crest would result from several feet of storm surge, compounding already-high river levels from Midwest flooding. 

The official flood stage in New Orleans is 17 feet, but a combination of recently elevated earthen levees and floodwalls on both sides of the river in the New Orleans area protect most locations to water heights of between 20 and 22 feet. 

However, some levee segments along both the east and west banks could be as low as 18 feet. Thus, a 20-foot river height could cause overtopping at some of those locations, something that has never happened in the city's modern history.

Based on the National Hurricane Center’s prediction of a Category 1 hurricane, Jeffrey Graschel, a hydrologist with the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center in Slidell, said the river will rise between 3 and 5 feet above its present elevation. The higher levels are expected near the mouth of the river, in Plaquemines Parish.  

But the surge will make itself felt as far away as Baton Rouge, where the water level is expected to rise about 10 inches by Saturday, he said.

US: New Orleans under water

You'd better follow NOLA.com for the next few days. It's not the magnificent Times-Picayune that covered Katrina, but it's right on the scene for a sequence of disasters: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is likely to hit Louisiana as Hurricane Barry, waterspouts are spinning in the streets of flooded New Orleans, and the Mississippi is reported to be cresting at 20 feet—the height of the levees.

You'd also be wise to follow NWS New Orleans, which is currently reporting a flash flood emergency for Jefferson Parish.

Three southwest Japan cities order 800,000 to evacuate over rain, landslide danger

Via The Mainichi: 3 southwest Japan cities order 800,000 to evacuate over rain, landslide danger. 

Three Kagoshima Prefecture cities including the capital issued emergency evacuation orders for their entire populations totaling 798,170 people on July 3 as torrential rain continues to hammer the region, raising the risk of landslides.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) held an emergency press conference on the morning of July 3, calling on people to evacuate quickly.  

"Downpours often make it difficult to leave. Please be aware of the need to protect your own lives, and evacuate as soon as possible without waiting for a special warning to be issued."  

The Kagoshima Municipal Government issued an emergency evacuation order for all of its 594,943 residents in 275,287 households due to torrential downpours expected to last through the late morning of July 4, and warned that life-threatening landslides are imminent. The southwestern Japan city specifically called on residents in areas close to cliffs, rivers and other dangerous areas to immediately flee to safer places. 

The city opened another 90 evacuation centers on July 3 in addition to shelters it had already set up, and decided to provide food and other basic supplies to evacuees.  

The Kirishima Municipal Government also issued an evacuation order to all of its 125,868 residents in 61,395 households at 11:10 a.m. According to the city, small-scale landslides have occurred in different parts of the city, forcing a total of 110 residents in 69 households to evacuate by 11:30 a.m. 

The neighboring city of Aira issued an evacuation order to all of its 77,359 residents in 36,801 households soon after Kirishima, at 11:30 a.m.  

The downpours forced Kyushu Railway Co. (JR Kyushu) on July 3 to halt its Kirishima limited express services between Miyazaki and Kagoshima-chuo stations; Ibusuki no Tamatebako between Kagoshima-chuo and Ibusuki stations; Isaburo/Shinpei between Kumamoto and Hitoyoshi stations and Kumamoto and Yoshimatsu stations; and Kawasemi Yamasemi between Kumamoto and Hitoyoshi stations. It also suspended or reduced local train services. 

According to the JMA, rainfall until 4 a.m. on July 3 stood at 835 millimeters in the city of Ebino, Miyazaki Prefecture, also in southwestern Japan, and 631.5 millimeters in the city of Satsumasendai in neighboring Kagoshima Prefecture. 

Rainfall during the 24-hour period up to shortly past 9 a.m. came to 147 millimeters in the city of Kanoya, Kagoshima Prefecture, 143 millimeters in the city of Miyakonojo, Miyazaki Prefecture, and 116 millimeters in Ebino.

India: Cyclone Fani kills at least 33, hundreds of thousands homeless

Via Thomson Reuters: India cyclone kills at least 33, hundreds of thousands homeless. Excerpt:

PURI, India, May 5 (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of people were left homeless after a cyclone packing winds of about 200 km per hour slammed into eastern India, ripping out tin roofs and destroying power and telecom lines, officials said on Sunday.  

At least 33 people were killed after cyclone Fani struck the state of Odisha on Friday but a million people emerged unscathed after they moved into storm shelter ahead of landfall.  

The death toll could have been much greater if not for the massive evacuation in the days before the storm made landfall, officials said. 

The seaside temple town of Puri, which lay directly in the path of Fani, suffered extensive damage as winds gusting up to 200 kph (124 mph) tore off tin roofs, snapped power lines, and uprooted trees on Friday. 

"The cyclone has killed 21 people in Puri and about 300 people are injured," Brajabandhu Dash, medical officer at Puri, told Reuters. Earlier, 12 deaths were reported from other parts of the state.  

The depression over the Western Meghalaya and adjoining Bangladesh has weakened, and will become insignificant in the next 24 hours, India's met department said on Twitter early on Sunday. 

According to preliminary reports, Fani damaged power infrastructure worth more than 12 billion rupees ($173.7 million) and the authorities are trying to restore electricity supply for emergency services, another official said.  

More than 60,000 people including officials and volunteers were involved in relief operations, said special relief commissioner Bishnupada Sethi, who monitored the evacuation.

The relief effort used sirens, loudspeakers and sent more than 20 million mobile messages to the targeted people, he said. 

The cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal can last from April to December, and storms can be deadly. In 1999, a super-cyclone battered the coast of Odisha for 30 hours, killing 10,000 people. 

Fani was the strongest summer cyclone in 43 years to hit Odisha, disrupting water supplies and transport links, the state's chief minister Naveen Patnaik said in a statement.  

"We are in the process of restoring physical infrastructure," he told reporters.

Cyclone Fani live updates: Fani weakens, heavy rainfall predicted in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, northeast

Via The Times of India: Cyclone Fani live updates: Fani weakens, heavy rainfall predicted in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, northeast: MHA. This seems to be a useful site for short updates. 

Cyclone Fani to hit Puri between 8 and 10 am Friday

Google Maps

Via The Statesman in Kolkata, where it's already May 3: Cyclone Fani to hit Puri between 8 and 10 am today. Excerpt:

Incessant rain drenched parts of coastal Odisha as the extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani remained on course to hit the state near Puri between 8 and 10 am on Friday.  

It was a race against time for the state government and the disaster mitigation agencies NDRF, ODRF, Fire services as Fani gathered speed in the Bay causing a constant revision of timeline in evacuation and other operations.  

Initially, the forecast was landfall will take place near Puri at around 5.30 pm. This was revised to between 10 and 12 noon and the latest was advanced by another two hours – 8 and 10 am. 

Odisha government, which has set global standards in disaster response and mitigation, targeted to evacuate 11.50 lakh[1,150,000] people from low lying areas along 11 coastal districts by Thursday evening. But, with Fani gathering speed of 12 km per hour in the sea, the administration was racing against time and at the time of reporting, 6 lakh[600,000] people have been moved to safer places and cyclone shelters. 

Wind speed reach 200 km per hour is the forecast. In state capital Bhubaneswar, the speed would be 115 km per hour.  

Besides, the gale and gusty cyclonic wind, the sea surge with high tidal waves expected to be five to seven mts in Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts is likely to inundate low lying areas.  

Whipped by cyclonic winds, the sea waters could sweep up to six km inland affecting habitation in two coastal districts of Puri and Jagatsinghpur. 

Reservoir levels are low and there is no fear of floods, but rainwater and sea water evacuation will be required, said official sources. 

Relief and rescue operations are in full operational mode. 

Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik reviewed the preparedness levels and appealed to people to maintain calm, remain indoors and safe. Each life is precious, he said, while insisting that the government is fully prepared to face the cyclone.