Via bioRxiv: Agricultural and geographic factors shaped the North American 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak. The abstract:
The 2014 – 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5NX outbreak represents the largest and most expensive HPAI outbreak in the United States to date. Despite extensive traditional and molecular epidemiological studies, factors associated with the spread of HPAI among midwestern poultry premises remain unclear.
To better understand the dynamics of this outbreak, 182 full genome HPAI H5N2 sequences isolated from commercial layer chicken and turkey production premises were analyzed using evolutionary models modified to incorporate epidemiological and geographic information. Epidemiological compartmental models constructed in a phylogenetic framework provided evidence that poultry type acted as a barrier to the transmission of virus among midwestern poultry farms.
Furthermore, after initial introduction, a continuous external source of virus was not needed to explain the propagation of HPAI cases within the commercial poultry industries. Discrete trait diffusion models indicated that within state viral transitions occurred more frequently than inter-state transitions. Distance, road density and proportion of water coverage were all supported as associated with viral transition between county groups (Bayes Factor > 3.0).
Together these findings indicate that the midwestern poultry industries were not a single homogenous population, but rather, the outbreak was shaped by poultry sectors and geographic factors.
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