H5N1

DR Congo: In less than two months, nearly 90 children aged 0 to 5 died from an unknown disease in Gungu (Kwilu)

Via Actualite.cd: DRC: in less than two months, nearly 90 children aged 0 to 5 died from an unknown disease in Gungu (Kwilu). The Google translation:

Nearly 90 children aged 0 to 5 have died since the end of August as a result of a hitherto undetermined illness, authorities alert. According to the head of the provincial health division in Kwilu, Jean-Pierre Basake, the affected children show signs of fever causing anemia. He indicates that the health authorities were not seized of the matter in time.

“In places, like in Lonzo Munene village, two to three children die. It already dates from the end of August. And when we add up, we are around 90 children. The team was not warned in time because the families were going to the private community more, the state structures were not informed. It is malaria with fevers that reduce blood hemoglobin, so that by lack of transfusion and good management to minimize fevers, there is anemia,” said Jean-Pierre Basake. 

He adds: “Also because of their habits and customs, we don't like transfusing. Now is the time for us to see how we can combine actions to have a possibility of installing the blood bank in large cities.”  

In society, these numerous cases of child deaths call for an investigation to determine the nature of the disease.  

“Children die every day, especially in the rural commune of Mukedi and the surrounding villages. There is fever, loss of blood, there is also diarrhea which manifests itself especially in children from 0 to 5 years old who are targeted by this epidemic which still lacks a name. We ask that there be a descent of a team of health experts who can come to the aid, to see if it is exactly what,” pleaded journalist René Kinenga, director of programs at Radio Fraternité by Mukedi.  

According to information collected from some residents, this is the third time that these repeated deaths have been observed for three years, still at the start of the rainy season.

A look back to December 1, 2019

I just revisited my posts for December 1, 2019. It was a different world: Samoa and other Pacific nations were battling a serious measles outbreak, and Dr. Tedros was praising the courage of Ebola responders in the DR Congo who were coming under yet more attacks from violent groups.

But it was only a year ago, and disasters like measles, malaria, and countless other diseases are still with us—and aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

I wonder what December 1, 2021 will be like.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries

Via The Lancet Global Health: Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. The summary:

Background 

COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. 

Methods 

Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Findings 

In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. 

Interpretation 

Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Patients share beds as COVID-19 cases overwhelm Mumbai’s hospitals

Via The Guardian: Patients share beds as coronavirus cases overwhelm Mumbai’s hospitals. Excerpt:

In Mumbai’s Sion hospital emergency ward there are two people to a bed. Patients, many with coronavirus symptoms and strapped two to a single oxygen tank, were captured lying almost on top of each other, top-to-toe on shared stretchers or just lying on the floor, in footage shared on social media in India this week. 

Mumbai, a city of more than 20 million people, is weeks into the pandemic, but with new cases showing no sign of slowing down the city’s already weak healthcare system appears to be on the brink of collapse. State hospitals such as Sion, overcrowded in normal times, are overrun. With frontline doctors and nurses falling sick with the virus in their droves, it is also leading to a shortage of medical staff. 

“The volume and density of our population in Mumbai makes it very difficult to see how we will get out of the other side of this peak,” said Manish Shetty, a doctor who works on the Covid-19 ward in Guru Nanak hospital in Mumbai. “Definitely there is a fatigue setting in from all frontline workers, especially because there is a very high chance of healthcare workers getting infected.”  

He added: “There is definitely a shortage of beds for critical care. There is a lot of infrastructure and planning which is happening, but the magnitude of the cases is overwhelming us all.” 

It was at Sion hospital that, in footage that went viral a few weeks ago, Covid-19 patients were seen being treated in a ward alongside dead bodies, wrapped in black plastic bags, after the hospital morgue ran out of room.  

With 52,667 cases, and 1,695 deaths – nearly a quarter of all Covid-19 deaths nationally – the state of Maharashtra, and in particular its biggest city, Mumbai, has emerged as the centre of India’s coronavirus outbreak. According to doctors and officials, the peak began on 6 May, but the curve is showing no signs of flattening, and cases are still doubling every week. 

With state-run hospitals quickly running out of beds and keeping symptomatic patients waiting, the Mumbai municipal corporation has raced to convert a series of stadiums and office complexes into coronavirus wards and quarantine centres. 

A makeshift hospital with 1,000 beds, including intensive care facilities, was built in the city’s business district, the Bandra Kurla Complex. The National Sports Club of India stadium is being converted into a 600-bed quarantine and ICU facility, while the Mumbai planetarium will house 300 beds and the Nehru science centre will be made into a quarantine facility for those living in slums. Private hospitals have also been ordered to give over dozens of their beds for Covid-19 patients. 

A Mumbai municipal corporation spokesperson, Vijay Khabale, denied that coronavirus patients were being denied beds. “There are enough beds but there is a lack of coordination with other agencies, which is why there are these reports. The present situation is that we have more than enough beds and quarantine facilities.” Khabale said that all the new facilities would be completed within the week, but he was optimistic they would not need to be used at full capacity. “We are expecting that within a day or two that the cases will begin to flatten and then begin to decrease,” he insisted, adding: “We have it under control.”  

However, many doctors fear that the worse is still to come. India has been under one of the world’s strictest lockdowns since 24 March, but it has only slowed down the spread of the virus, rather than flattening the curve of cases. India ranks 4th in the world for new cases recorded each day, and with lockdown due to be loosened at the end of this week there are fears it will prompt a spike in infection rates, for which the hospitals are not prepared. India has had 158,000 reported cases. 

To complicate matters further, the beginning of June will bring the monsoon and the outbreaks of dengue fever, malaria and leptospirosis, which already inundate hospitals on an annual basis. Last year India officially reported more than 67,000 cases of dengue, though the real figure is thought to be much higher. 

According to the human rights activist Abraham Mathai, who runs the All India Nurses Association, dozens of patients with non-Covid related diseases are dying because they are being denied access to treatment, with some Mumbai hospitals ordered to only take in Covid-19 patients. Last week, 15-year-old Pawan Maddibona died after six hospitals refused to give him dialysis treatment for his kidneys.

What the growing rift between the US and WHO means for COVID-19 and global health

Via Nature.com: What the growing rift between the US and WHO means for COVID-19 and global health. Excerpt:

Experts in health policy are contending with the real possibility that the United States will pull away from the World Health Organization (WHO), fracturing a relationship that began in the wake of the Second World War. 

They say that the repercussions could range from a resurgence of polio and malaria, to barriers in the flow of information on COVID-19. Scientific partnerships around the world would also be damaged, and the United States could lose influence over global health initiatives, including those to distribute drugs and vaccines for the new coronavirus as they become available, say researchers.  

A fissure between the US and the international health agency opened further last week, when US President Donald Trump tweeted a letter to WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, threatening to make permanent the US freeze on WHO funding that began in April, unless the organization “can actually demonstrate independence from China” within 30 days. He added that he will reconsider the United States’ membership of the organization. “I don’t think this is an idle threat,” says Kelley Lee, a global health-policy researcher at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada. 

Proposals for new US-led initiatives for pandemic preparedness abroad do little to quell researchers' concerns. Some say these efforts might even add incoherence to the world's response to COVID-19, and global health more generally, if they're not connected to a fully-funded WHO. “It’s surreal to even be having this conversation, since it’s so hard to get one’s head around the massive implications,” says Rebecca Katz, director of the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University in Washington DC. 

The acrimony is poorly timed, given the need for international coordination and cooperation to contend with the coronavirus. “In this pandemic, people have said we’re building the plane while flying,” Katz says. “This proposal is like removing the windows while the plane is mid-air.”  

Balance due 

Trump’s letter, which he tweeted on 18 May, alleges that the WHO intentionally ignored reports that COVID-19 was spreading between people in Wuhan, China, in December. “I cannot allow American taxpayer dollars to continue to finance an organization that, in its present state, is so clearly not serving America’s interests,” he wrote. A few of Trump's points were immediately debunked. For example, he claimed that the medical journal The Lancet had published on the new coronavirus in December. The next day, the journal issued a statement calling the claim factually incorrect because their first reports on COVID-19 were published on 24 January. The journal also refuted other allegations in the letter, concluding that the claims are "damaging to efforts to strengthen international collaboration to control this pandemic." 

Tedros has reiterated his commitment to a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the WHO's response to COVID-19, and an assessment of the organization's operations in the first part of 2020 is already public. But when reporters asked Tedros about additional, immediate investigations in response to Trump's allegations at a WHO press briefing, he said, “Right now, the most important thing is fighting the fire, saving lives.”

Trump does not need Congressional approval to withhold funds from the WHO, and global health researchers say the gap left by the US is a big deal. Last year, the US government gave the WHO roughly US$450 million. Nearly 75% of that was voluntary, and the other quarter was mandatory — a sort of membership fee expected from the 194 member countries, adjusted by the size of their economies and populations. 

The United States is the biggest donor, representing about 15% of the WHO budget. So far this year, it has paid about one-quarter — $34 million — of its membership dues, according to a WHO spokesperson. Voluntary funds are more complicated because a large portion were paid last year, however the spokesperson says that the freeze has put a hold on new agreements, meaning that the full-blown effects of the decision will be felt in 2021. 

The US government provides 27% of the WHO’s budget for polio eradication; 19% of its budget for tackling tuberculosis, HIV, malaria and vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles; and 23% of its budget for emergency health operations. If these initiatives shrink, researchers say, death and suffering will surge. David Heymann, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says this will also amount to squandered investment for the United States, particularly for polio. Gains won through vaccination campaigns that cost hundreds of millions of dollars would be lost, he says.

Making mosquitoes immune to malaria

Via Nature Communications, a scrap of good news: A microsporidian impairs Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. The abstract:

A possible malaria control approach involves the dissemination in mosquitoes of inherited symbiotic microbes to block Plasmodium transmission. However, in the Anopheles gambiae complex, the primary African vectors of malaria, there are limited reports of inherited symbionts that impair transmission. 

We show that a vertically transmitted microsporidian symbiont (Microsporidia MB) in the An. gambiae complex can impair Plasmodium transmission. Microsporidia MB is present at moderate prevalence in geographically dispersed populations of An. arabiensis in Kenya, localized to the mosquito midgut and ovaries, and is not associated with significant reductions in adult host fecundity or survival. 

Field-collected Microsporidia MB infected An. arabiensis tested negative for P. falciparum gametocytes and, on experimental infection with P. falciparum, sporozoites aren’t detected in Microsporidia MB infected mosquitoes. As a microbe that impairs Plasmodium transmission that is non-virulent and vertically transmitted, Microsporidia MB could be investigated as a strategy to limit malaria transmission.

See also this BBC News report on the study.

Report 19: The potential impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on HIV, TB and malaria in low- and middle-income countries

MRC has published Report 19 - The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. The summary:

COVID-19 has the potential to cause disruptions to health services in different ways; through the health system becoming overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, through the intervention used to slow transmission of COVID-19 inhibiting access to preventative interventions and services, and through supplies of medicine being interrupted. We aim to quantify the extent to which such disruptions in services for HIV, TB and malaria in high burden low- and middle-income countries could lead to additional loss of life. 

In high burden settings, HIV, TB and malaria related deaths over 5 years may be increased by up to 10%, 20% and 36%, respectively, compared to if there were no COVID-19 epidemic. We estimate the greatest impact on HIV to be from interruption to ART, which may occur during a period of high or extremely high health system demand; for TB, we estimate the greatest impact is from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which may result from a long period of COVID-19 suppression interventions; for malaria, we estimate that the greatest impact could come from reduced prevention activities including interruption of planned net campaigns, through all phases of the COVID-19 epidemic.

In high burden settings, the impact of each type of disruption could be significant and lead to a loss of life-years over five years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV/TB epidemics. Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and healthcare services for HIV, TB and malaria could significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Mambasa: Young people attack Ebola response team after child's death

Via Radio Okapi: Mambasa: Young people attack Ebola response team after child's death. The Google translation:

Calm returned on Monday (October 14th) to Lolwa-center, after a strong tension recorded Sunday in this village located 64 kilometers north of Mambasa on the national road number 4. This tension was due to the anger of the population, who protested against the death of a child at the general hospital of the place.  

For the protesters, the staff caring for Ebola in this medical facility are the cause of this death. In particular, they ransacked all the handwashing devices there.  

This happened around 4 pm local time. It all started with the death of a three-year-old child who was suffering from malaria. The latter was admitted to the Lolwa General Hospital to receive care. 

Local civil society sources report that the parents of this child first removed it from the health facility, considered a transit center for Ebola patients. Some time after his death, they again returned to the same hospital because he had a high fever. And he gave up the ghost. 

This death was not well perceived by local youth. They accused health care workers of the Ebola outbreak of being responsible for the death. 

In their anger, they ransacked the handwashing and isolation posts of suspected Ebola cases. Military personnel stationed in this area intervened to restore order.  

Political and notable actors in Mambasa condemned these acts. Among them, the former governor of Ituri, Jefferson is not Abdallah Pene Mbaka. The latter requested that the perpetrators of these acts be arrested for their actions.

MSF: Ebola response overshadows DRC's fragile health system

Thanks to Mary Marshall for sending the link to this important report from MSF.org: Ebola response overshadows DRC's fragile health system. Excerpt (but read the whole story):

For health centres and hospitals in the region, the scale-up of the internationally funded Ebola response can be a blessing or a curse. 

Where Ebola response teams and international organisations set up isolation and treatment facilities, they often improve infrastructure, pay extra staff, and support primary healthcare services. 

But the health workers needed in the response are almost exclusively hired from other health centres and hospitals in the area, which are now facing critical staff shortages.  

At the General Hospital in the main village of Mabalako, these gaps are strikingly evident. Over half of the doctors and nursing staff are missing, and no one has sufficient time to watch over patients in the four wards around the big courtyard.

As extra wages with the Ebola response tend to be higher and more reliable, many of the remaining staff are disappointed that they were not selected, and moral and motivation are low. 

In the hospital, the staff shortages, unavailable treatments, and missing salaries are a deadly mix.  

“We lost children in the paediatric ward because they were not put on the correct malaria treatment straight away – an error that could have been avoided with the right human resources and more vigilance,” said MSF doctor Brian Da Cruz, who is supporting the two remaining doctors in charge of an operating theatre, maternity department, paediatric clinic, and a regular ward with more than 40 beds. 

The hospital also has a basic isolation zone for patients with infectious diseases, but the small structure has no changing rooms, no decontamination zone, and there is no safe access for families to visit patients.  

As suspect Ebola patients are taken to another, better equipped structure, its rooms are currently used to observe four children with measles, a vaccine-preventable, but highly infectious disease leading to regular epidemics in the DRC. 

On the opposite side of the courtyard, MSF drilled a borehole and installed a water point, which is in permanent use by people living in the neighbourhood for clean drinking water.

While MSF’s support was mostly focused on improving infrastructure and working alongside the remaining staff in health centres and the regional hospital, the team is currently evaluating a different model, including a regular payment scheme to supplement staff salaries and offer bedside training. 

“We are discussing playing a stronger role in the hospital and the three health centres we support, by taking supervisory responsibility, offering training on the job, and ensuring patients have access to free care while staff are getting paid,” explained MSF project coordinator Amandine Colin. 

Back in Metale, MSF community outreach specialist Wivine Bokotogi hands a set of flashcards on malaria prevention and treatment to two local health promoters. 

Malaria is another major health burden at risk of being neglected as the attention and resources chase after the Ebola epidemic. In the DRC, malaria accounted for 13 per cent of deaths in children under five years old in 2016, and up to half of the people screened in Ebola treatment centres last year tested positive for malaria alone. 

“We train the local health promoters on key messages to prevent malaria, including instructions to cover stagnant water sources, use mosquito nets, and take children to the nearest health centres so they can be treated in time,” said Wivine.

Windborne long-distance migration of malaria mosquitoes in the Sahel

Via Nature, some very unwelcome news: Windborne long-distance migration of malaria mosquitoes in the Sahel. The abstract:

Over the past two decades efforts to control malaria have halved the number of cases globally, yet burdens remain high in much of Africa and the elimination of malaria has not been achieved even in areas where extreme reductions have been sustained, such as South Africa. Studies seeking to understand the paradoxical persistence of malaria in areas in which surface water is absent for 3–8 months of the year have suggested that some species of Anopheles mosquito use long-distance migration. 

Here we confirm this hypothesis through aerial sampling of mosquitoes at 40–290 m above ground level and provide—to our knowledge—the first evidence of windborne migration of African malaria vectors, and consequently of the pathogens that they transmit. 

Ten species, including the primary malaria vector Anopheles coluzzii, were identified among 235 anopheline mosquitoes that were captured during 617 nocturnal aerial collections in the Sahel of Mali. Notably, females accounted for more than 80% of all of the mosquitoes that we collected. Of these, 90% had taken a blood meal before their migration, which implies that pathogens are probably transported over long distances by migrating females. 

The likelihood of capturing Anopheles species increased with altitude (the height of the sampling panel above ground level) and during the wet seasons, but variation between years and localities was minimal. Simulated trajectories of mosquito flights indicated that there would be mean nightly displacements of up to 300 km for 9-h flight durations. Annually, the estimated numbers of mosquitoes at altitude that cross a 100-km line perpendicular to the prevailing wind direction included 81,000 Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, 6 million A. coluzzii and 44 million Anopheles squamosus. 

These results provide compelling evidence that millions of malaria vectors that have previously fed on blood frequently migrate over hundreds of kilometres, and thus almost certainly spread malaria over these distances. The successful elimination of malaria may therefore depend on whether the sources of migrant vectors can be identified and controlled.