H5N1

Reducing the risks of nuclear war to humanity

Via The Lancet: Reducing the risks of nuclear war to humanity.

On Feb 27, 2022, Russia's President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces to be placed on “the special regime of combat duty”. This decision increased the alert status of Russian nuclear forces from a peacetime status to a pre-combat status, creating the legal conditions for any further instruction to launch missiles. Presumably Putin's move is intended to create fear and uncertainty, intensify pressure on Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies and partners, reduce resistance to Russian attacks in Ukraine, and extract concessions in negotiations.  

But these threats represent an absolutely unacceptable escalation of his invasion of Ukraine. The threat of nuclear weapons ratchets up tensions and increases the anxiety and stress that every soldier, resistance fighter, civilian, and politician is experiencing. This threat is also likely to affect analysis and decision making by all parties to the conflict in regard to the potentially far-reaching impacts of decisions. Indeed, history has shown us the risks that these types of situations can pose.  

Since the 1960s the assumption by nuclear armed states was that the prospect of mutually assured destruction would guarantee that nuclear weapons are never used. Nuclear war was believed to be so catastrophic that no leader would ever dare use their nuclear arsenals. More recently, in January, 2022, all the nuclear weapons states that are signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (China, France, Russia, the USA, and the UK) reiterated the Reagan–Gorbachev statement that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.  

Nonetheless, documentary research and testimonies have revealed occasions during the decades after the Cuban missile crisis when nuclear weapons were very nearly used as a result of misperceptions and misinterpretation of signals. In 1983, for example, the NATO Able Archer military exercise increased the fear level in the Soviet Union to such an extent that Russian nuclear forces were mobilised. Also in 1983, satellite signals that appeared to be incoming nuclear missiles from the USA to the Soviet Union nearly led to a launch-on-warning response from Moscow. The decision not to do so rested largely on the decisions of one individual, lieutenant colonel Stanislav Petrov. Even after the end of the Cold War, when tensions were low, a Norwegian rocket was initially feared to be an incoming nuclear weapons attack in Russia.  

In the case of nuclear weapons, such mistakes, if they lead to inadvertent use, can never be small or put right. Any use of so-called tactical nuclear weapons (in the low kiloton range) in battle situations would also risk rapid escalation to large-scale nuclear war. The overwhelming humanitarian catastrophic impact of a nuclear weapon is too great to allow these weapons into stressful conflict situations in which such mistakes will occur. Humanity has not avoided nuclear war thus far because of wise leaders, sound military doctrine, or infallible technology. As former US Defense Secretary Robert McNamara observed: “We lucked out. It was luck that prevented nuclear war.”  

An estimated 200 000 people died within 5 months of the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945 and many survivors suffered long-term effects, including increased risk of leukaemia, other types of cancer, and effects on mental health. The world's nuclear armed states currently have a combined arsenal of around 12 700 nuclear weapons. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the USA deploys 1644 and Russia deploys 1588 strategic warheads on bombers and missiles, many with an explosive power of 100 kilotons or more. Both countries are modernising their nuclear delivery systems.  

If a single warhead of 100 kilotons exploded over a major city it would kill hundreds of thousands of people outright and injure many more, overwhelming the health-care system of an entire nation.  

Even a small-scale nuclear war, involving 250 of the deployed nuclear weapons in the NATO and Russian arsenals, or as might take place between India and Pakistan, would be expected to result in sufficient dust and smoke blocking solar radiation to cause major climate disruption that would trigger a global famine, putting billions of people at risk and destroying modern civilisation.  

A large-scale nuclear war would create a nuclear winter, with temperatures falling an average of about 10°C across the globe, and could kill most of humanity over 10 years. 

The threat by Putin has exposed the weakness of the belief system in nuclear deterrence. Such an approach can never be risk free and the consequences of failure of this strategy are catastrophic. This realisation should lead to more nations signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which currently has 86 signatories and 59 states parties, but that will take time, even with political will. In the near term, it is essential that leaders refrain from exacerbating tensions by implying that such weapons have a military purpose and that immediate steps are taken to reduce the risks of miscommunication and error potentially leading to tragedy on a vast scale.  

NATO and Russia must explicitly renounce any use of nuclear weapons in the conflict in Ukraine. They must join with the other nuclear armed states, at the earliest possible moment, in support of the aims of the TPNW, to commence negotiations for the complete, verifiable elimination of all nuclear weapons.

Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant

Google Maps

Via The Guardian: Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. This sounds like Chernobyl, but on purpose:

A fire has broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant located in Zaporizhzhya, according to an announcement from the mayor of the nearby town of Enerhodar.  

“As a result of continuous enemy shelling of buildings and units of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire,” Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov said on his Telegram channel, citing what he called a threat to world security. He did not give details, Reuters reports.  

Orlov recorded a short video message which has now been shared my multiple local Ukrainian media outlets, urging Russian troops to immediately stop shelling the plant.  

Orlov earlier said Ukrainian forces were battling Russian troops on the city’s outskirts. and reported that a Russian military column was heading toward the nuclear plant. Loud shots and rocket fire were heard late Thursday.  

According to a Telegram message posted by an employee at the plant, Russian troops fired at the nuclear facility. “Attention! Equipment of the Russian Federation is firing at the Zaporozhye NPP. There is a real threat of nuclear danger at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. We demand a ceasefire from heavy equipment at the Zaporozhye NPP!”  

Ukrainian news agencies UNIAN and Hromadske also report that a fire has started at the nuclear power plant.   

The city on the Dnieper River accounts for one-quarter of the country’s power generation.

Finland: Emergency situation at Olkiluoto nuclear plant

Google Maps

Via Foreigner.fi: Emergency situation at Olkiluoto nuclear plant. Excerpt:

The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Stuk) is investigating what it has called "a serious operational disruption" involving high levels of radiation at the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. 

The facility, located on the west coast between the cities of Rauma and Pori, was forced to undergo an emergency shutdown (scram) on Thursday shortly after noon. 

According to Stuk, the problems in the plant started "when radiation measurement systems detected higher levels within the plant." However, the nuclear watchdog said "no radiation has been released into the surroundings from the facility" and the radiation situation in the vicinity of the plant is "normal." 

Previously, the operator of the plant (TVO) reported "a plant emergency situation" occurred at 12:22 in which "an isolation of main steam lines has launched an isolation which has isolated also the containment." (sic). 

However, in a subsequent communication, the operating company TVO changed the phrase "emergency situation" to "disturbance" to describe what happened. 

The second statement read: "There has been a disturbance at Olkiluoto 2 (OL2) nuclear power plant at 12.22, where the main steam line’s isolation has been triggered and the containment has been isolated."

Be cautious with the precautionary principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident

Via the National Bureau of Economic Research, a cautionary tale: Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident. The abstract, and then a comment:

This paper provides a large scale, empirical evaluation of unintended effects from invoking the precautionary principle after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. 

After the accident, all nuclear power stations ceased operation and nuclear power was replaced by fossil fuels, causing an exogenous increase in electricity prices. This increase led to a reduction in energy consumption, which caused an increase in mortality during very cold temperatures. 

We estimate that the increase in mortality from higher electricity prices outnumbers the mortality from the accident itself, suggesting the decision to cease nuclear production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.

I've been thinking a lot lately about the inevitably higher costs of a sustainable economy of the kind envisaged by the "Green New Deal" advocates. This study tends to confirm my suspicions that without an equal level of prosperity for everyone, sustainability will be impossible.

California Woolsey fire near nuclear accident site

Via the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: California fire near nuclear accident site. Excerpt:

Call it another sad chapter in the long and depressing book of governmental failures to properly clean up after nuclear research and production efforts. Last week, the Woolsey Fire—one of three major, climate change-charged conflagrations now afflicting California—apparently started on the grounds of the Santa Susana Field Laboratory, located just south of Simi Valley and west of Los Angeles. 

Closed in 1996, the lab site was home to rocket engine and nuclear reactor research; one of the nuclear efforts—the Sodium Reactor Experiment—led to the partial melt-down of a reactor in 1959 and the release of radioactive material. But as the Los Angeles Chapter of Physicians for Social Responsibility noted, the Santa Susana site is contaminated in a variety of ways: 

“Decades of nuclear and rocket-engine testing activity, including nuclear reactor accidents and other toxic spills and releases, have resulted in widespread contamination throughout [lab’s] 2,850-acre facility.”  

The California Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) quickly announced that it didn’t believe the fire had released significant amounts of toxins. “Our staff were able to access the site Saturday morning and assess damage caused by the fire,” a Tuesday press release said. 

“We confirmed that the [lab] facilities that previously handled radioactive and hazardous materials were not affected by the fire. Over the weekend our multi-agency team took measurements of radiation and hazardous compounds, both on the site and in the surrounding community. The results from this initial round of testing showed no radiation levels above background levels, and no elevated levels of hazardous compounds other than those normally present after a wildfire.” 

Safecast, an international, volunteer-centered organization formed in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, reported Wednesday that it “had no survey data from the immediate [lab] area prior to the fire, but we had a fair amount of data from nearby communities which showed it to be at normal background levels. Our real-time radiation and particulate sensors in the Southern California region, the closet of which is 30km (about 18 miles) away from [the site], have shown no measurable increases in radiation. Safecast volunteers are on the way to the site, however, so hopefully we will have new data to share soon. Though CalFire indicates that the fire danger in the [lab] area has passed, many roads are still closed, making access difficult.” 

Local activists were not shy about voicing in their disbelief in governmental pronouncements about contamination and the fire. “We can’t trust anything that DTSC says,” West Hills resident Melissa Bumstead said. “DTSC repeatedly minimizes risk from [the lab] and has broken every promise it ever made about the [lab] cleanup. The public has no confidence in this troubled agency.” 

Should it? The Santa Susana Field Laboratory closed 22 years ago, and cleanup efforts remain in the planning stages.

United States woefully unprepared for nuclear strike, say scientists

Via Nature News & Comment: United States woefully unprepared for nuclear strike, say scientists. Excerpt and then a comment:

The United States is not prepared to deal with the aftermath of a major nuclear attack, despite North Korea’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons and the increasing tensions between nations overall. That was the blunt assessment of public-health experts who participated in a meeting last week on nuclear preparedness, organized by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.  

The gathering is “an acknowledgement that the threat picture has changed, and that the risk of this happening has gone up”, says Tener Veenema, who studies disaster nursing at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, and co-chaired the conference in Washington DC.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States’s research and preparedness efforts for a nuclear strike have focused largely on the possibility of a terrorist attack with a relatively small, improvised 1-kilotonne weapon or a ‘dirty bomb’ that sprays radioactive material.  

But North Korea is thought to have advanced thermonuclear weapons — each more than 180 kilotonnes in size — that would cause many more casualties than would a dirty bomb (see 'Damage estimates'). 

“Now that thermonuclear is back on the table, we’re back to people saying, ‘We can’t deal with this,’” says Cham Dallas, a public-health researcher at the University of Georgia in Athens.

In one sense, this is surprising: after 1945, US scientists paid close attention to the effects of the A-bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and must have accumulated an enormous amount of information.

In another sense, it's just a reminder that nuclear war is not something we can ever "prepare for." It's just something to be endured and, if possible, survived. The only real preparation is to ensure that nuclear detonations never happen.

Tepco probe to directly touch melted fuel debris at Fukushima plant

As Japan deals with a brutal heat wave and braces for a typhoon this weekend, The Japan Times reports: Tepco probe to directly touch melted fuel debris at Fukushima plant.

The operator of the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant is planning to survey melted fuel debris at the No. 2 reactor by the end of March — using a special device — in an operation it hopes will help it determine the best method for its removal, sources said Wednesday.  

It will be the first survey by Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. involving direct contact with the debris at the Nos. 1 to 3 units, which suffered core meltdowns triggered by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.  

Tepco is considering extracting debris — the most difficult part of the decommissioning process — first from the No. 2 unit. Gravel-like fuel material was confirmed at the bottom of its containment vessel in a January survey using a telescopic arm. 

The utility aims to collect information in the survey to help determine how to extract the debris and develop a container in which to keep it. A special device will be attached to a pipe with a camera to check whether the fuel material can be moved. Samples may also be collected for analysis, the sources said.  

In the road map compiled by Tepco and the government for scrapping the damaged reactors, the two are to decide on the method for debris extraction and from which unit they will start removing debris. In an underwater robot probe conducted last July at the No. 3 unit, Tepco found what was believed to be debris, but extracting that will be much harder than in the No. 2 unit because the company will need to lower the water level inside the containment vessel. 

The location of the material in the No. 1 unit remains unknown.

Fukushima's long road to recovery

On the seventh anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, a BBC News report: Fukushima's long road to recovery. Excerpt:

It was supposed to be a day of celebration. But Rio Watanabe's graduation ceremony became memorable for all the wrong reasons. 

Mr Watanabe, who was just 23 years old at the time, was in Tokyo when the ground started to shake. Japan is used to earthquakes. It experiences more than 100,000 of them every year, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.  

But the tremors on 11 March 2011 were so violent that Mr Watanabe thought Tokyo was at its epicentre. 

When he realised that they originated 200 miles north of the capital, his thoughts quickly turned to his family in Fukushima, and the Sansuiso Inn run by his father. 

The hot spring's location in the mountains meant it escaped the devastation wrought by the magnitude seven earthquake and tsunami which followed.  

However, a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant sparked fears of contamination, and the spa resort quickly emptied.

Mr Watanabe still remembers how suddenly things changed. "We suffered heavily after the nuclear blast, and all of our bookings were cancelled."  

Seven years on and the hotel's operating profits have not recovered to levels seen before the disaster struck. 

Mr Watanabe says: "Some guests still talk about the nuclear disaster. There is still a negative image about Fukushima, and it's been painful for all of us in this community." 

The tsunami killed almost 16,000 people and forced the country to rethink its energy policy. 

Seven years on and the scars of the 2011 disaster remain. Abandoned houses are obscured by unruly branches and overgrown hedges. Even the vending machines are ignored. But there are also tales of resilience. 

Mr Watanabe had always planned to return to the Sansuiso Inn in Fukushima to help run the hotel with his father. 

He says: "My future was suddenly destroyed and cut off, and I felt so disappointed. It was such as shock."  

But the disaster also brought the community together. Mr Watanabe joined forces with other hot spring owners in the area to form Genki Up Tsuchiyu. "Re-energizing Tsuchiyu" is designed to promote activities in the area and bring the community together.

Branswell: CDC plans session on 'preparing for the unthinkable'

Via STAT, Helen Branswell writes: CDC plans session on 'preparing for the unthinkable': a nuclear detonation. Excerpt:

With this week’s bellicose boasting about who has the bigger red button on his desk, an alert Thursday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention felt more than a bit on the nose. 

With the prospect of actual nuclear war breaking out between North Korea and the United States seeming ever more real, the CDC is moving to prepare health professionals and others on what the public health response would be to a nuclear detonation. 

The CDC announced it is staging a grand rounds — a teaching session — on the topic. The target audience: doctors, nurses, epidemiologists, pharmacists, veterinarians, certified health education specialists, laboratory scientists, and others. The event will be held Jan. 16.  

A spokesperson for the agency said planning for the event has been underway for months — in fact, since CDC officials took part in a “radiation/nuclear incident exercise” led by the Federal Emergency Management Agency last April, Kathy Harben said in an email. 

“CDC participants felt it would be a good way to discuss public health preparedness and share resources with states and other partners. State and local partners also have expressed interest in this topic over time,” she said.  

Still, the timing of the announcement was eerie, coming on the heels of back-to-back threats exchanged between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump.  

“Join us for this session of Grand Rounds to learn what public health programs have done on a federal, state, and local level to prepare for a nuclear detonation,” urges the CDC email advising people on one of the agency’s mailing lists about the session. “Learn how planning and preparation efforts for a nuclear detonation are similar and different from other emergency response planning efforts.” 

The CDC holds grand rounds virtually monthly on topics such as birth defects prevention, diseases spread by ticks, and sodium reduction. A previous grand rounds on radiological and nuclear disaster preparedness was offered in March 2010.

CDC: Public health response to a nuclear detonation

Thanks to Maryn McKenna for alerting me to this CDC event, scheduled for 1:00 p.m. January 16: Public Health Response to a Nuclear Detonation | Public Health Grand Rounds. Excerpt:

While a nuclear detonation is unlikely, it would have devastating results and there would be limited time to take critical protection steps. Despite the fear surrounding such an event, planning and preparation can lessen deaths and illness.  For instance, most people don’t realize that sheltering in place for at least 24 hours is crucial to saving lives and reducing exposure to radiation. While federal, state, and local agencies will lead the immediate response efforts, public health will play a key role in responding.  

Join us for this session of Grand Rounds to learn what public health programs have done on a federal, state, and local level to prepare for a nuclear detonation. Learn how planning and preparation efforts for a nuclear detonation are similar and different from other emergency response planning efforts.